# Scott Bogman: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. **Claimed:** Feb 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Scott Bogman — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/scott-bogman **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/real-first-round-nfl-mock-draft-ep-1944 12 checkable claims — 12 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 12 have settled, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > David Bailey led the league or led the country... and he is going to be in the top ten for sure, no doubt. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 22** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Olaivavega Ioane, Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kayden McDonald to be picked at number 19** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayden McDonald, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Romello Height to be picked at number 31** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Romello Height, Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 18.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Peter Woods to be picked at number 25** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Peter Woods, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 13** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 28** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel Pregnon, Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Denzel Boston to be picked at number 16** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Denzel Boston, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 36.92 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Olaivavega Ioane — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/olaivavega-ioane - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Kayden McDonald — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kayden-mcdonald - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/panthers - Romello Height — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/romello-height - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans - Peter Woods — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/peter-woods - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bears - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/rams - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Emmanuel Pregnon — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-pregnon - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Denzel Boston — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/denzel-boston - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets ## What others said about the same people - Bucky Brooks on Josh Johnson: Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10c3797b-f9e0-41ca-a2a3-5d765a242a79 (scored 0) - Jared Koch on Lewis Bond: Koch argues Kayshon Boutte is a winner in the trade to Houston, likely to see many more snaps and potentially post a career season, while Xavier Hutchinson's path to a breakout gets harder. He also sees Kamari Ramsey stepping up as the primary backup safety behind a top three of Bullock, Pitre and Blankenship, and views Jared Wayne as a fringe roster player squeezed by receivers he calls virtual locks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/14048ef2-7210-46fd-825a-b9849c144a9f (scored 100) - Lance Zierlein on Lewis Bond: Zierlein expects Texans QB C.J. Stroud to play roughly 10-12 plays in Thursday's preseason game, with Davis Mills going to halftime and newly signed Brett Rypien playing the entire second half. He also said if Tank Dell isn't ready, Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall would both likely make the roster, and predicted Keelan Rutledge will be the starting center with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith starting. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/20e6ff7b-1de6-4de6-9567-3997edaea6b8 (scored 100) - Lance Zierlein on Lewis Bond: Zierlein expects Trevor Goosby, Texas' starting left tackle, to be a first-round NFL draft pick, and thinks Quinn Ewers may struggle to stay on the Dolphins' roster beyond this year. He also predicts the Texans' preseason quarterback usage: C.J. Stroud around 10-12 plays, Davis Mills through the first half, and Brett Rypien for the second half. If Tank Dell isn't ready, he thinks Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall could both make the roster. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/684f97b2-1578-404d-9e71-4026eea8db4d (scored 100) - Seth Walder on Kayshon Boutte: Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0263bd78-6c5c-41c5-8615-0467d8ef521a (scored 0) - Garrett Podell on Stefon Diggs: A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bc79861b-dbde-474e-9d55-bf50f7b766d2 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on R Mason Thomas: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 59.46) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=scott-bogman