# Lance Zierlein: Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. He also expects the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline. **Claimed:** Apr 20, 2026 **Pundit:** Lance Zierlein — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/lance-zierlein **Outlet:** John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8892874.mp3?modified=1776696244&sid=4936948&source=rss 10 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 90.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **David Bailey to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jordan Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jordan Love, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Houston Texans to pick “will have not have made a pick on day one”** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Myles Garrett to move** - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Myles Garrett - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/browns - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Jordyn Tyson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jordyn-tyson - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/saints - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants - Jordan Love — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jordan-love - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Myles Garrett — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/myles-garrett ## What others said about the same people - Mike Florio on Shedeur Sanders: Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf6258b2-b55f-4f50-84f9-24269a5a006a (scored 0) - Paul Keren on Teven Jenkins: Keren says Teven Jenkins still projects as Cleveland's Week 1 starting right guard despite a push from KT Leveston, and that Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams will be the Browns' lead linebackers. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/86b36112-724c-4f9c-a4fd-cf74a38be8e4 (scored 0) - Seth Walder on Kayshon Boutte: Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0263bd78-6c5c-41c5-8615-0467d8ef521a (scored 0) - Henry McKenna on Carson Beck: McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9025c533-03e6-4e1f-8773-b8ef2f1d46ea (scored 0) - Garrett Podell on Stefon Diggs: An unsigned CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bc79861b-dbde-474e-9d55-bf50f7b766d2 (scored 100) - Fernando Alfaro-Donis on Kayshon Boutte: Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b988191f-a153-4f4b-a1b8-7b5a7a18265c (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Rob Rang on Jeremiah Smith: Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd619cef-1878-4067-9021-a5ec734d35ed (scored 0) - Gregg Rosenthal on Brandon Doughty: Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/16ab5f5d-0f01-48ee-a1df-63c1b1996dc3 (scored 2.63) - Peter Bukowski on Gennings Dunker: Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f77d920f-e5fe-4684-83b6-9105b6304d5b (scored 100) - Brian Peacock on Bud Clark: In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cc1842ef-bbb3-49c0-ad24-ec5db753c59b (scored 95.76) - Damian Parson on Zachariah Branch: Locked On's draft analyst laid out where several prospects should land in the upcoming draft: Zachariah Branch as a Day 2/third-round target for the Chargers, Penn State's top offensive lineman gone well before pick 22 (ideally 14 to Baltimore), Akeem Mesador and Malachi Lawrence as first-round edge rushers, Derrick Moore as a Day 2 edge, and Texas's left tackle as a top-10 pick next year. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b352f2ad-cf9f-4086-8229-68786b3029cf (scored 100) - Ollie Connolly on Kyle Louis: Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/451a3983-ef51-4051-988d-6842523d646b (scored 19.28) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=lance-zierlein