# David Harrison: In his first post-free-agency mock draft, Harrison has the Commanders trade back with Cincinnati and select Carnell Tate at No. 10, Chris Johnson at No. 41, Jagger Burton at No. 147, Trey Moore at No. 187, VJ Payne at No. 209 and Vincent Anthony Jr. in the seventh round.

**Claimed:** Mar 16, 2026
**Pundit:** David Harrison — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/david-harrison
**Outlet:** Locked On Commanders (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/locked-on-commanders-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdrl.fm/7c3048/lockedon.simplecastaudio.com/dd4ec57b-d2e1-4378-a057-7e7fe1d38252/episodes/7d789ee6-53d5-443c-948d-7de2e8ce0368/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=dd4ec57b-d2e1-4378-a057-7e7fe1d38252&awEpisodeId=7d789ee6-53d5-443c-948d-7de2e8ce0368&feed=psq7p3Ar

8 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

6 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 43.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

> Carnell Tate, wide receiver out of Ohio State, come becomes the first pick in our first mock draft Monday following free agency.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Vincent Anthony to be picked “seventh round” (picks 217–257)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Vincent Anthony, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Chris Johnson to be picked at number 41**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Chris Johnson, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 54.53 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Trey Moore to be picked at number 187**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Trey Moore, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 8.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 10**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Jager Burton to be picked at number 147**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jager Burton, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Victor Payne to be picked at number 209**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Victor Payne, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 43.91 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Chig Okonkwo to be 1st on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Chig Okonkwo, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Trey Amos to be 1st on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Trey Amos, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Vincent Anthony — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/vincent-anthony
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Chris Johnson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chris-johnson
- Trey Moore — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/trey-moore
- Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate
- Jager Burton — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jager-burton
- Victor Payne — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/victor-payne
- Chig Okonkwo — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chig-okonkwo
- Trey Amos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/trey-amos

## What others said about the same people

- Nathan Jahnke on Luke McCaffrey: An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/47566b48-8024-4960-b25c-11c03fe43543 (scored 100)
- Jacob Westendorf on Jager Burton: In his final 53-man roster projection for the Packers, Westendorf names every player he expects to make the initial roster, places Luke Musgrave and Micah Parsons on PUP, projects Anthony Campbell as the final cut headed to the practice squad, and sets out several depth-chart calls (Love over Taylor, Jacobs as the bell cow, Franklin/Cooper starting at linebacker, Cox and Dennis-Sutton as the No. 2 edge tandem in Week 1). — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/60a297eb-a1a6-4929-a589-40cb7119463c (scored 100)
- Nathan Jahnke on Luke McCaffrey: PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/265cbdba-b0e0-4f80-9665-a4ca5aaec53e (scored 100)
- Bill Huber on Jager Burton: Ahead of final cuts, Huber assigns Packers players probability tiers for making the 53-man roster, calling 40 players locks and another 12 more likely than not to stick, while projecting Keisean Nixon as a Week 1 starting cornerback, Tyrod Taylor as the backup QB, Skyy Moore as the returner, and Micah Parsons, Luke Musgrave and Jordon Riley opening the season on PUP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/252e49be-50e8-48d2-91e2-b5e540d78adc (scored 100)
- Philip Hughes on Terry McLaurin: Hughes surveys Washington's remaining roster questions, asserting that Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are locks for the 53-man roster and that Antonio Williams has essentially secured a spot as the third receiver, while Percy Butler's standing improved after safety cuts. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2708f043-e677-4a6f-b7ac-a2d1114be6ea (scored 100)
- Philip Hughes on Frankie Luvu: Hughes projects Washington's initial 53-man roster ahead of the final preseason game, naming every player he expects to make the team by position group, and slots Athan Kaliakmanis as the No. 3 quarterback behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4ec7adba-dd12-4caf-9bb1-f1a343cee65a (scored 100)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100)
- Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81)
- Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52)
- Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51)
- Scott Bogman on Olaivavega Ioane: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 70.71)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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