# Benjamin Solak: Solak predicts the 2022 draft will see more running backs than quarterbacks taken in the first round — possibly three backs to two passers — that Carson Strong will be drafted ahead of Malik Willis, that Kayvon Thibodeaux won't be the first defensive lineman off the board, that eight defensive players will be selected in the top 10, and that Spencer Rattler will end up as the clear top prospect in the class. **Claimed:** Aug 2, 2026 **Pundit:** Benjamin Solak — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/benjamin-solak **Outlet:** The Draft Network — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-draft-network **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2022-nfl-draft-predictions 3 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 1 prospect vs prospect call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 0.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think it's possible we see only two passers up against three backs come April. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Carson Strong to be drafted ahead of Malik Willis** - Kind: Prospect vs Prospect Calls · About: Carson Strong - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Spencer Rattler to be picked “clear top spot in the draft class overall; top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Spencer Rattler - Verdict: scored 0.23 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kayvon Thibodeaux to be picked “not the first defensive lineman drafted”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kayvon Thibodeaux - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Carson Strong — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carson-strong - Spencer Rattler — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/spencer-rattler - Kayvon Thibodeaux — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kayvon-thibodeaux ## What others said about the same people - Ross Jackson on Spencer Rattler: Ross Jackson gives his final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b43691e9-1673-4236-ba12-7d60ad3b95f5 (scored 100) - Ross Jackson on Spencer Rattler: Ross Jackson projects the New Orleans Saints' offensive 53-man roster: three quarterbacks with Tyler Shough starting and Spencer Rattler as the backup, four running backs including Alvin Kamara, six wide receivers with Jalen Polk making it, three tight ends, ten offensive linemen with a set starting five, and Charlie Smith at kicker. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5f4d7215-b47b-478d-8a8e-3199f34273ef (scored 100) - LaVar Arrington on Kayvon Thibodeaux: Arrington argued the Giants will keep both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux rather than moving on from either. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/78a58951-dd6b-4bd0-91f4-fecb5e77c994 (scored 100) - Jack McKessy on Kayvon Thibodeaux: McKessy's way-too-early 2022 NFL awards predictions: Mahomes for MVP, Jonathan Taylor for OPOY, Aaron Donald (or Micah Parsons if Donald retires) for DPOY, Kenny Pickett for OROY, Kayvon Thibodeaux for DROY, Michael Thomas for Comeback Player, and Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4cc35e2e-94fb-43d2-99ca-955810e42191 (scored 0) - Patricia Traina on Kayvon Thibodeaux: Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8bb1a183-b45b-44db-8a61-23bdd2238a6b (not settled) - Bryan DeArdo on Kayvon Thibodeaux: A CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bd269550-714b-4a52-b6e1-2ba079b58fef (not settled) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=benjamin-solak