# Jake Ciely: Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.

**Claimed:** Jun 22, 2025
**Pundit:** Jake Ciely — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/jake-ciely
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/is-christian-mccaffrey-worth-the-risk-boom-or-bust-running-backs-draft-or-fade-ep-1595

6 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 fantasy bust call, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 34.7 out of 100, against 70.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Breece Hall, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Breece Hall, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 75 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess
- **Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: scored 83.33 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Justin Fields, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 99.31 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Breece Hall — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/breece-hall
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Brashard Smith — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/brashard-smith
- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- Ashton Jeanty — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ashton-jeanty
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Christian McCaffrey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers
- Justin Fields — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/justin-fields

## What others said about the same people

- Fernando Alfaro-Donis on Kayshon Boutte: Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b988191f-a153-4f4b-a1b8-7b5a7a18265c (scored 0)
- Mike Tannenbaum on Stefon Diggs: Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f7a29c18-face-49c0-b84f-33715b4c6678 (scored 0)
- Brandon Carney on Stefon Diggs: Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c4d477da-4fb8-4a25-a904-c5057a249a70 (scored 0)
- Nick Shook on Fernando Mendoza: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 100)
- Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52)
- Gregg Rosenthal on Breece Hall: Rosenthal calls the Chiefs the No. 1 favorite and says they are going to the Super Bowl. He also expects several players to be moved before the trade deadline, most confidently David Njoku, and views Riq Woolen and Breece Hall as likely trade pieces. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5efb7598-25cf-4279-b377-dc24dd59894e (scored 0)

## More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Rich Hribar on Matthew Stafford: Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9d1e15ad-f96d-457c-ad9f-25882182e28b (scored 100)
- Chris Brockman on Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c47d130c-5598-4cd0-b546-1121046b9166 (scored 100)
- Pat Gustavson on Bijan Robinson: Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/06884586-5b21-40c8-9439-e303a3e8a806 (scored 75)
- JP Acosta on Bijan Robinson: JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/660e3494-2b0b-415e-beb7-9e3bf3464e30 (scored 75)
- Rich Eisen on George Pickens: Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2b6828d6-b24c-4c65-ac95-56bf45c4ebf7 (scored 100)
- Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Christian Gonzalez: Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c6469c58-b508-48d9-b72f-fe6e0d7d4da5 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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