# Andrew Erickson: Erickson fades Christian McCaffrey as the No. 1 overall fantasy pick given his 450-touch workload, age 30 and declining efficiency, and also fades Brian Thomas Jr. while Trevor Lawrence remains Jacksonville's quarterback.

**Claimed:** Sep 4, 2026
**Pundit:** Andrew Erickson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/andrew-erickson
**Outlet:** FantasyPros — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/fantasypros
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.fantasypros.com/2026/09/7-fantasy-football-draft-landmines-experts-avoid-2026/

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

Nothing to score yet: this grades once the result is in.

> Fade McCaffrey in 2026.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (the No. 1 overall fantasy pick)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Christian McCaffrey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers

## What others said about the same people

- Mike Tannenbaum on Stefon Diggs: Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f7a29c18-face-49c0-b84f-33715b4c6678 (scored 0)
- John Middlekauff on San Francisco 49ers: Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/af06c2e6-9beb-4a7e-b444-620680dbccd1 (scored 60)
- Gregg Rosenthal on Kendrick Bourne: In a five-man mock draft Rosenthal took Jahmyr Gibbs first among his picks, then Saquon, Nico Collins, Chase Brown, Ladd McConkey and Omarion Hampton. He also called Nico Collins a top-five receiver, floated Ladd McConkey finishing as WR3, expected Travis Hunter to become Jacksonville's best receiver, predicted Hampton to become the Chargers' workhorse, thought Rhamondre Stevenson stays on the Patriots, and predicted Kendrick Bourne gets traded to the 49ers. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0c878f7b-88cf-400b-b07f-3b0aa2c1dfda (scored 100)
- Dalton Feely on Asante Samuel Jr.: Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5456472e-edf1-49c5-9f6b-bd59183fcea7 (scored 0)
- Richard Sherman on Charvarius Ward: Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/fd0cf59d-3729-4865-8641-02792d0b6b24 (scored 100)
- Evan Silva on San Francisco 49ers: In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/180b1036-60e5-494b-9b4d-90b5dc3d6528 (scored 0)

## More fantasy bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Zay Flowers: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 0)
- Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Joe Pisapia on Rashee Rice: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Chuba Hubbard: Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as his ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9cc5c06e-e0c5-45bd-8b93-fa089f8673a8 (scored 100)

---

Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=andrew-erickson