# Jared Koch: Koch argues the Texans hold the advantage over the Bills in their Week 1 2026 matchup in Houston, based on returning personnel and past results against Josh Allen. **Claimed:** Sep 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Jared Koch — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/jared-koch **Outlet:** Sports Illustrated — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/sports-illustrated **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/onsi/texans-recent-history-vs-bills-spells-trouble-for-josh-allen 2 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room. > On paper, and based on past precedent, Houston looks like they have the edge in this one-off first glance. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Houston Texans to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - C.J. Stroud — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/c-j-stroud ## What others said about the same people - John Breech on Houston Texans: Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9da8cc61-bdc3-40fd-bd7f-c02c99fe7b00 (scored 0) - Judah Fortgang on Houston Texans: PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3c975cce-7d78-48c7-95ad-f5d06adbf4a8 (scored 0) - Judah Fortgang on Houston Texans: An unsigned PFF betting piece argues Cooper Rush will struggle against Pittsburgh's disruption pressure in Week 1, and that Buffalo's rebuilt secondary without Sean McDermott will be exploitable by C.J. Stroud, leading them to back Houston winning through the air. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1c4105a4-26a0-4592-b314-eacdc44833e9 (scored 0) - Simon Hunter on Houston Texans: Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5ac46502-b65b-469b-befc-16fbc672b011 (scored 0) - Chad Millman on Houston Texans: Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/de991e27-ec15-4c6e-ad88-b55bdaea8665 (scored 0) - Kevin Wildes on Houston Texans: Wildes parlayed two upsets: Houston beating Buffalo and Indianapolis beating Baltimore, and had picked Dak Prescott as league MVP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f28f3fe2-4d14-4184-9168-052e865ecb0b (scored 0) ## More depth chart calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Tyler Sullivan on Drew Lock: In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a14b5e6-066b-457f-b409-a3ddbd512aca (scored 0) - Ralph Vacchiano on Tua Tagovailoa: Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6f782be9-64d3-47cf-b054-6566e14194d6 (scored 0) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Kyler Murray: Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/70a7844a-2fb6-44d7-814f-30ec9fbcc26d (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Kyler Murray: Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0653fc24-437c-4aba-89ee-f1f417e1983d (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Michael Penix Jr.: In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/968b3764-11ef-41b5-a370-ff570b3219d1 (scored 0) - Mike Florio on Shedeur Sanders: Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf6258b2-b55f-4f50-84f9-24269a5a006a (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=jared-koch