# Derek Brown: Brown gives Week 1 start/sit calls at quarterback, recommending Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Tyler Shough, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix and Malik Willis as starts, with Shough and Nix specifically capable of QB1 weekly numbers, while advising fantasy managers to sit Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence. **Claimed:** Sep 12, 2026 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** FantasyPros — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/fantasypros **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.fantasypros.com/2026/09/fantasy-football-start-sit-advice-quarterbacks-week-1-2026/ 12 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 fantasy bust calls and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > Shough could post QB1 numbers in Week 1. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Jared Goff to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kyler Murray to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: not settled yet - **Baker Mayfield to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Trevor Lawrence - Verdict: not settled yet - **Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **Patrick Mahomes to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: not settled yet - **Malik Willis to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: not settled yet - **Jayden Daniels to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders - Verdict: not settled yet - **Tyler Shough to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **Jaxson Dart to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jaxson Dart, New York Giants - Verdict: not settled yet - **Bo Nix to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos - Verdict: not settled yet - **Bo Nix to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Jared Goff — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jared-goff - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/lions - Kyler Murray — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kyler-murray - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Baker Mayfield — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/baker-mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Trevor Lawrence — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/trevor-lawrence - Tyler Shough — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tyler-shough - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/saints - Patrick Mahomes — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/patrick-mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Malik Willis — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/malik-willis - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Jayden Daniels — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jayden-daniels - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Jaxson Dart — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jaxson-dart - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants - Bo Nix — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/bo-nix - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/broncos ## What others said about the same people - Chris Brockman on Baker Mayfield: Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d508736e-a824-4fa0-854c-df4ebdd9ef02 (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Kyler Murray: Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/70a7844a-2fb6-44d7-814f-30ec9fbcc26d (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Kyler Murray: Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0653fc24-437c-4aba-89ee-f1f417e1983d (scored 100) - Jon Gruden on Baker Mayfield: The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10bb8ff2-886c-488e-b693-fb4ea9dd5880 (scored 100) - Joel Corry on Baker Mayfield: The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a840ff4-f1e5-48ca-bec6-ba41e9ef2396 (scored 100) - Nathan Jahnke on Jalen Tolbert: PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/760054fd-7815-4b86-a9e3-bc9bdb0a730b (scored 0) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Money Smith on Tre Harris: Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1f779ee4-78d9-4f01-a069-bcd0ef45fc72 (scored 0) - Brandon Carney on Javonte Williams: Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9337347d-fde9-46c9-9bb6-26ade467538b (scored 100) - Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Saquon Barkley: Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd0eab3d-1392-41f3-a9b6-026860f9ffa5 (scored 0) - Greg Cosell on Omarion Hampton: Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/26c1330e-ee04-42a9-b29d-d6f0cc6bab6a (scored 0) - Andrew Erickson on Saquon Barkley: Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/abd0628c-1338-467b-9ac3-d89c922468eb (scored 0) - Joe Pisapia on Omarion Hampton: Joe Pisapia's 2026 first round is receiver-heavy, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase, insisting Amon-Ra St. Brown belongs in the top five, keeping Justin Jefferson in round one, and dropping Christian McCaffrey to 12. He also sees Omarion Hampton as a value who will be a top-10 pick a year later. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/830a3414-41f0-4e58-9f3b-b1a5f9e10c3c (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown