# Judah Fortgang: PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup. **Claimed:** Sep 13, 2026 **Pundit:** Judah Fortgang — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/judah-fortgang **Outlet:** Pro Football Focus — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/pro-football-focus **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.pff.com/news/bet-nfl-week-1-same-game-parlays-2026/ 9 checkable claims — 6 player season numbers and 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 3 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 5 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 4. > Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to lean on TE Cade Otton in a win against the Bengals *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Houston Texans to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Las Vegas Raiders to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Cade Otton to record 6 receptions** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Jaylin Noel to record 60 receiving yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Jaylin Noel, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **C.J. Stroud to record 280 passing yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kirk Cousins to record 260 passing yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cade Otton to record 70 receiving yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cade Otton to record 1 receiving tds** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Cade Otton — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/cade-otton - Jaylin Noel — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jaylin-noel - C.J. Stroud — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/c-j-stroud - Kirk Cousins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kirk-cousins ## What others said about the same people - Chris Brockman on Baker Mayfield: Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d508736e-a824-4fa0-854c-df4ebdd9ef02 (scored 100) - Jon Gruden on Baker Mayfield: The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10bb8ff2-886c-488e-b693-fb4ea9dd5880 (scored 100) - Joel Corry on Baker Mayfield: The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a840ff4-f1e5-48ca-bec6-ba41e9ef2396 (scored 100) - Fernando Alfaro-Donis on Kayshon Boutte: Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b988191f-a153-4f4b-a1b8-7b5a7a18265c (scored 0) - Brandon Carney on Stefon Diggs: Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c4d477da-4fb8-4a25-a904-c5057a249a70 (scored 0) - Danny Parkins on Trey Hendrickson: Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ca8ddcc3-733b-4a44-92b9-b90577e59c9c (scored 0) ## More player season numbers The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ross Jackson on Tyler Shough: Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4dc05898-73fd-4fcb-92c4-a940d7e395ba (scored 3.63) - Chris Broussard on Lamar Jackson: Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5a026afc-40fe-4b1f-b209-3ce53ae205d7 (scored 0) - Nick Wright on Myles Garrett: Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9a8b5cea-9f2f-46f0-9939-72c2a60e4c26 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Myles Garrett: Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/029b0090-8d3f-47de-9fb9-7f0a02320f3a (scored 84) - Shannon Sharpe on T.J. Watt: On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1fbc5b8e-7449-41f4-a5a2-7029cc4ef65e (scored 0) - Rich Eisen on Micah Parsons: Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f94f8499-af74-4a8d-a688-fd08cd52bb3c (scored 56.25) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=judah-fortgang