# Nick Baumgardner: The Athletic's draft analyst assessed several 2026 prospects: Ruben Bain as a top-15/20 rather than top-5/10 prospect, Kenyon Sadiq as a clear first-round tight end going anywhere from 15 into the 20s, Jeremiah Love as a top-five player on his board who fits the Chiefs in the top ten, Ty Simpson as a possible late-first-round pick, Fernando Mendoza as the class's only certain first-round QB, and Garrett Nussmeyer as QB3. **Claimed:** Feb 28, 2026 **Pundit:** Nick Baumgardner — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/nick-baumgardner **Outlet:** Fox Sports Radio (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/fox-sports-radio-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fox-sports-radio-weekends/fna-with-kevin-figgers-adam-auslund-debate-luka-and-the-lakers-problem-the-nfl-draft-combine-nick-baumgardner-joins-the-show 9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 3 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 9 have settled, averaging 78.8 out of 100, against 42.4 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Garrett Nussmeier to be 3rd quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Garrett Nussmeier - Verdict: scored 8.84 out of 100, against 33.08 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the Chiefs there in the top ten” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Rueben Bain to be picked “a top fifteen, top twenty prospect” (picks 1–15)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked “could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kenyon Sadiq - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Fernando Mendoza - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 33.08 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked “first round quarterback” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Cole Payton to be picked “pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Cole Payton - Verdict: scored 0.18 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Kenyon Sadiq - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 15.51 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Garrett Nussmeier — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/garrett-nussmeier - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Kenyon Sadiq — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kenyon-sadiq - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Cole Payton — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/cole-payton ## What others said about the same people - Jeff Kerr on Cole Payton: Kerr ranks the Eagles' 2025 draft picks by cut risk, predicting seventh-rounders Keyshawn James-Newby and Cole Wisniewski land on the practice squad, while Cole Payton, Uar Bernard, Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers and Markel Bell make the 53. He also says Lemon starts Week 1 and Bell is the right tackle of the future. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ae8f39f7-dab8-4908-a53e-e3401a7c8bee (scored 100) - Tyler DeSena on Kevin Coleman: DeSena expects Chris Bell to function as Miami's X-receiver, with Caleb Douglas as the deep-threat Z and Malik Washington in the slot, and considers Bell, Douglas, Washington and fifth-round rookie Kevin Coleman locks to make the 53-man roster. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cdf88974-3b99-4342-b7eb-bcf15f82379c (scored 100) - Alain Poupart on Keith Cooper Jr.: Poupart's third 53-man roster projection of 2026 for the Dolphins names which players make the roster and which are cut at each position group. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/af1013eb-d6fa-476c-b1d9-bc977dff22a5 (scored 0) - Mike Moraitis on Andre Jones Jr.: Moraitis expects Andre Jones Jr. to hold a spot on Miami's 53-man roster after being signed off Buffalo's practice squad, with a significant special teams role under coordinator Chris Tabor. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/aada599b-129d-4866-bc24-0562e28b735c (scored 100) - Alain Poupart on Jalen Tolbert: Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ea9d4107-0a88-42a5-8300-186c4a38bef3 (scored 100) - Chris Clark on Garrett Nussmeier: Clark says Benson and Nussmeier will make the 53 (with the Chiefs keeping three QBs), Harrison Butker will remain the kicker all season, and Andrew Armstrong will be cut for lack of a return role. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0980b588-d56b-463d-b7b1-678059726844 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=nick-baumgardner