# Conor Orr: Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos). **Claimed:** Sep 9, 2026 **Pundit:** Conor Orr — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/conor-orr **Outlet:** Sports Illustrated — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/sports-illustrated **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.si.com/nfl/2026-nfl-week-1-staff-expert-picks 16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 16 have settled, averaging 31.3 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls. > He is also the only person taking the Patriots on the road this week. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Denver Broncos to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New York Jets to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New York Jets - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Baltimore Ravens to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Chicago Bears to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Cleveland Browns to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Green Bay Packers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Washington Commanders to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Miami Dolphins to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Houston Texans to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Detroit Lions to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Los Angeles Chargers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Dallas Cowboys to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Pittsburgh Steelers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Los Angeles Rams to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **New England Patriots to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bears - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/browns - Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/packers - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/lions - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/rams - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/patriots ## What others said about the same people - Chris Brockman on Baker Mayfield: Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d508736e-a824-4fa0-854c-df4ebdd9ef02 (scored 100) - Mike Moraitis on DaRon Bland: Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/66b5ed7b-41bd-4f67-9b4d-16eae4675e67 (scored 100) - Jon Gruden on Baker Mayfield: The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10bb8ff2-886c-488e-b693-fb4ea9dd5880 (scored 100) - Joel Corry on Baker Mayfield: The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a840ff4-f1e5-48ca-bec6-ba41e9ef2396 (scored 100) - Mike Florio on Shedeur Sanders: Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf6258b2-b55f-4f50-84f9-24269a5a006a (scored 0) - Nathan Jahnke on Jalen Tolbert: PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/760054fd-7815-4b86-a9e3-bc9bdb0a730b (scored 0) ## More game outcome picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - John Pluym on Kansas City Chiefs: Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf (scored 100) - Matt Verderame on Kansas City Chiefs: Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e4f51f97-310d-4665-a47e-fdab93ff1fd1 (scored 100) - Mike Kadlick on Kansas City Chiefs: Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/934613ff-97e3-4894-a383-faa755bdfc35 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Wright lays out his 2026 season picks: all eight division winners, the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins and a 6-0 start, Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl with Kansas City winning, plus value picks on the Seahawks and Eagles to win the NFC. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/28eb6893-6945-42b1-970e-c8647881f733 (scored 100) - Richard Sherman on Kansas City Chiefs: Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/72ff16c2-b2aa-4bf7-aad7-0cdabfa8a999 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Wright locked in his preseason picks: the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins, eight division winners, Eagles/Broncos/Chiefs to make the playoffs, Eagles and Seahawks to come out of the NFC, and a Chiefs win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/fce97149-84fb-4412-88c5-84a696e7905f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=conor-orr