# Dan Pizzuta: Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round. **Claimed:** Apr 24, 2024 **Pundit:** Dan Pizzuta — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/dan-pizzuta **Outlet:** The 33rd Team — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-33rd-team **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-bold-predictions-ahead-of-the-1st-round/ 8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Only four quarterbacks go in the first round *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Michael Penix Jr. - Verdict: scored 33.86 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jayden Daniels - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Drake Maye - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Williams - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 44.76 for a naive guess - **Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Bo Nix - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jer'Zhan Newton - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - J.J. McCarthy — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/j-j-mccarthy - Michael Penix Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/michael-penix-jr - Jayden Daniels — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jayden-daniels - Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/drake-maye - Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams - Bo Nix — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/bo-nix - Jer'Zhan Newton — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jer-zhan-newton ## What others said about the same people - Steven Ruiz on Michael Penix Jr.: In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/968b3764-11ef-41b5-a370-ff570b3219d1 (scored 0) - Philip Hughes on Jayden Daniels: Hughes projects Washington's initial 53-man roster ahead of the final preseason game, naming every player he expects to make the team by position group, and slots Athan Kaliakmanis as the No. 3 quarterback behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4ec7adba-dd12-4caf-9bb1-f1a343cee65a (scored 100) - Ethan Hurwitz on Drake Maye: Hurwitz gives his latest 53-man roster projection for the Patriots after the preseason opener, naming who makes the team at each position and slotting rookie Jam Miller as RB3, Karon Prunty as CB4 and Kindle Vildor as CB5. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a6794a5b-800b-4a37-8d2c-40bd94238106 (scored 100) - Mike Harmon on Caleb Williams: Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e2e20c82-d482-48e6-90f3-929d0862fc0d (scored 100) - Adam Rank on J.J. McCarthy: Rank recommends JJ McCarthy as a Week 15 quarterback streamer against Dallas and thinks Shedeur Sanders can carry fantasy teams into the semifinals against the Bears. For the Week 15 'perfect lineup' he picks Drake Maye as the top quarterback and Christian McCaffrey as a top running back, and he expects Terry McLaurin to produce with Marcus Mariota starting. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/edbecc9c-cb9a-405e-b3d5-856af9f4e21f (scored 0) - John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Rob Rang on Jeremiah Smith: Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd619cef-1878-4067-9021-a5ec734d35ed (scored 0) - Gregg Rosenthal on Brandon Doughty: Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/16ab5f5d-0f01-48ee-a1df-63c1b1996dc3 (scored 2.63) - Peter Bukowski on Gennings Dunker: Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f77d920f-e5fe-4684-83b6-9105b6304d5b (scored 100) - David Harrison on Eli Heidenreich: Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5cc44fc1-4ff9-447a-9c32-5f715fa6e9ba (scored 100) - Brian Peacock on Bud Clark: In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cc1842ef-bbb3-49c0-ad24-ec5db753c59b (scored 95.76) - David Harrison on Riley Nowakowski: In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e0151883-b7ac-4b3a-ae45-1cc58b32adb8 (scored 12.5) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=dan-pizzuta