# Rich Hribar: Hribar argues Pat Freiermuth reaching 100 catches in 2023 is highly improbable, and that Chris Godwin is undervalued relative to ADP — his projections have Godwin as WR17 in full-PPR while he personally ranks him WR24. He also flags Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks as projecting above their draft cost, and prefers Christian Watson to Godwin at similar cost. **Claimed:** Jun 19, 2023 **Pundit:** Rich Hribar — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/rich-hribar **Outlet:** Sharp Football Analysis — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/sharp-football-analysis **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/how-to-use-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-adp/ 7 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 1 player season number and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 72.2 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls. > The projections have Godwin as the WR17 in full-PPR scoring. I have him as WR24. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Keenan Allen to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Keenan Allen - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **James Conner to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: James Conner - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Brandin Cooks to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Brandin Cooks - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Chris Godwin Jr. to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Chris Godwin Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Rachaad White to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Chris Godwin Jr. to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Chris Godwin Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 33.33 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Pat Freiermuth to record 100 receptions** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Keenan Allen — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/keenan-allen - James Conner — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/james-conner - Brandin Cooks — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/brandin-cooks - Chris Godwin Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chris-godwin-jr - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Rachaad White — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/rachaad-white - Pat Freiermuth — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/pat-freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/steelers ## What others said about the same people - Chris Brockman on Baker Mayfield: Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d508736e-a824-4fa0-854c-df4ebdd9ef02 (scored 100) - Bucky Brooks on Keenan Allen: Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10c3797b-f9e0-41ca-a2a3-5d765a242a79 (scored 100) - Jon Gruden on Baker Mayfield: The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10bb8ff2-886c-488e-b693-fb4ea9dd5880 (scored 100) - Joel Corry on Baker Mayfield: The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a840ff4-f1e5-48ca-bec6-ba41e9ef2396 (scored 100) - Jason McIntyre on Baker Mayfield: Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3fa10b83-c7a3-489f-a011-76f2eb991e81 (scored 0) - Danny Parkins on Trey Hendrickson: Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ca8ddcc3-733b-4a44-92b9-b90577e59c9c (scored 0) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Money Smith on Tre Harris: Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1f779ee4-78d9-4f01-a069-bcd0ef45fc72 (scored 0) - Brandon Carney on Javonte Williams: Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9337347d-fde9-46c9-9bb6-26ade467538b (scored 100) - Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Saquon Barkley: Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd0eab3d-1392-41f3-a9b6-026860f9ffa5 (scored 0) - Ross Jackson on Devaughn Vele: Ross Jackson agreed to the same Saints mock draft board — Jeremiah Love at eight, Akeem Mesador in the second, Keonte Scott at 73, Keelan Rutledge and Ted Hurst in the fourth, Xavien Harris at 148, Aaron Anderson in the fifth and Bryce Boettcher in the sixth — and also called Devon Vellet a 2026 breakout candidate. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b4c58f9f-23b8-4857-8505-17c213d3a342 (scored 0) - Greg Cosell on Omarion Hampton: Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/26c1330e-ee04-42a9-b29d-d6f0cc6bab6a (scored 0) - Andrew Erickson on Malik Nabers: Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/abd0628c-1338-467b-9ac3-d89c922468eb (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=rich-hribar