# Kirk Herbstreit: Herbstreit made a full slate of Week 1 picks — Lions, Ravens, Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys — and also said he still thinks Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC West. **Claimed:** Sep 11, 2026 **Pundit:** Kirk Herbstreit — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/kirk-herbstreit **Outlet:** The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-pat-mcafee-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP1675507259.mp3 11 checkable claims — 10 game outcome picks and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls. > The Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer than eight and a half. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Dallas Cowboys to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Chicago Bears to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Green Bay Packers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Tennessee Titans to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Philadelphia Eagles to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Philadelphia Eagles - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Jacksonville Jaguars to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Baltimore Ravens to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Detroit Lions to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Buffalo Bills to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Buffalo Bills - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Seattle Seahawks to win the division** - Kind: Division Winners · About: Seattle Seahawks - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bears - Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/packers - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans - Philadelphia Eagles — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/eagles - Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jaguars - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/lions - Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bills - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Seattle Seahawks — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/seahawks ## What others said about the same people - Tyler Sullivan on Drew Lock: In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a14b5e6-066b-457f-b409-a3ddbd512aca (scored 0) - Chris Brockman on Baker Mayfield: Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d508736e-a824-4fa0-854c-df4ebdd9ef02 (scored 100) - Mike Moraitis on DaRon Bland: Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/66b5ed7b-41bd-4f67-9b4d-16eae4675e67 (scored 100) - John Shipley on Jack Kiser: Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c0a52b7c-63b2-4e18-b7da-9342dbbc111f (scored 0) - Jon Gruden on Baker Mayfield: The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/10bb8ff2-886c-488e-b693-fb4ea9dd5880 (scored 100) - Joel Corry on Baker Mayfield: The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a840ff4-f1e5-48ca-bec6-ba41e9ef2396 (scored 100) ## More game outcome picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Danny Parkins on Denver Broncos: Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/36c480cc-6b54-4cea-8204-3fc00ea6493c (scored 0) - Eric Mangini on Denver Broncos: Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e5bc3ec1-bf97-4273-a223-f5661d0cca8a (scored 0) - Shannon Sharpe on Denver Broncos: Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7f7bf5cf-1f4a-4432-beab-5ec7c9549fc7 (scored 0) - Tyler Sullivan on Denver Broncos: An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd6c3269-8c90-4044-9c48-0b1fc3537699 (scored 0) - Mitch Goldich on Denver Broncos: Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/643de3da-467f-48c2-a141-4656c392ab89 (scored 0) - John Pluym on Kansas City Chiefs: Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=kirk-herbstreit