# Jake Ciely: Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.

**Claimed:** Aug 23, 2025
**Pundit:** Jake Ciely — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/jake-ciely
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/top-10-breakout-candidates-middle-late-round-fantasy-football-draft-targets-ep-1664

14 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 14 have settled, averaging 62.7 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> We might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (those mid rounds)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Braelon Allen, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Romeo Doubs, Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Marvin Mims Jr. to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver fifty eight in ECR)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver forty two in ADP)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Cedric Tillman to outplay his draft cost (going super late in draft)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Bryce Young to outplay his draft cost (he's outside the top twenty)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Tucker Kraft to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 16.67 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 24.61 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Williams to record 4,000 passing yards**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 97.1 out of 100, against 31.73 for a naive guess
- **Bryce Young to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 41.67 out of 100, against 91.67 for a naive guess
- **Cedric Tillman to be 2nd on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 91.67 for a naive guess
- **Marvin Mims Jr. to be 2nd on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
  - Verdict: scored 91.67 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be 3rd on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 91.67 out of 100, against 83.33 for a naive guess
- **Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 75 out of 100, against 83.33 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Braelon Allen — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/braelon-allen
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Romeo Doubs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/romeo-doubs
- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bears
- Marvin Mims Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/marvin-mims-jr
- Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/broncos
- Ricky Pearsall — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ricky-pearsall
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers
- Cedric Tillman — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/cedric-tillman
- Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/browns
- Bryce Young — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/bryce-young
- Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/panthers
- Tucker Kraft — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tucker-kraft
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/packers
- Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chris-rodriguez-jr
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Matthew Golden — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/matthew-golden

## What others said about the same people

- Tyler Sullivan on Deshaun Watson: An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/054d7c3e-baca-4414-b3dd-72c4eced2725 (scored 100)
- Ryan Wilson on Deshaun Watson: A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ff870e69-9992-4166-aa81-9b49d6f77f55 (scored 100)
- Rafael Zamorano on Deshaun Watson: Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/80cb396b-8dbf-4e39-bd65-6d25df403db1 (scored 100)
- John Breech on Deshaun Watson: The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1e520b2b-bf4e-4a82-9743-7cb7bc3ee125 (scored 100)
- Mark Chichester on Deshaun Watson: Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ef347873-c28b-4a47-bb04-2488937cd3cf (scored 100)
- Zachary Pereles on Deshaun Watson: The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1b6d3216-38ff-4922-9e0a-807497573121 (scored 100)

## More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Derek Brown on Travis Hunter: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 100)
- Chris Welsh on Tyler Warren: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Joe Pisapia on Tyreek Hill: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on George Pickens: Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9d95277c-e110-411f-8934-9a1282c3286e (scored 100)
- Ryan Wormeli on Calvin Ridley: Warmley ranks Nico Collins his WR4 and Drake London his WR5, argues Ja'Marr Chase should be the No. 1 fantasy player again, has Tetairoa McMillan inside his top 20 receivers, and says Emeka Egbuka could be a top-24 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0716e9e8-c302-49d3-bd08-21cb0a8941e6 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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