# Marcus Mosher: Mosher names Will Levis, Aidan O'Connell and Drew Lock as the three quarterbacks most likely to break out in 2024, arguing improved supporting casts and opportunity set each up for a leap; he also suggests the Raiders could be a sneaky-fun team in the AFC if O'Connell wins the job.

**Claimed:** May 13, 2024
**Pundit:** Marcus Mosher — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/marcus-mosher
**Outlet:** The 33rd Team — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-33rd-team
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-predictions-who-will-be-this-years-breakout-quarterbacks/

4 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Here are three passers to watch closely.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Drew Lock to outplay his draft cost**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Drew Lock, New York Giants
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Aidan O'Connell to outplay his draft cost**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Will Levis to outplay his draft cost**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations**
  - Kind: Surprise Team Calls · About: Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Drew Lock — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/drew-lock
- New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants
- Aidan O'Connell — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/aidan-o-connell
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Will Levis — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/will-levis
- Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans

## What others said about the same people

- Tyler Sullivan on Drew Lock: In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8a14b5e6-066b-457f-b409-a3ddbd512aca (scored 0)
- Fernando Alfaro-Donis on Kayshon Boutte: Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b988191f-a153-4f4b-a1b8-7b5a7a18265c (scored 0)
- Brandon Carney on Stefon Diggs: Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c4d477da-4fb8-4a25-a904-c5057a249a70 (scored 0)
- Chad Millman on New York Giants: Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bd767876-d060-44de-aa5a-3fc87ff4e749 (scored 100)
- Eric Cohen on Tennessee Titans: Cohen says the Bears win easily in Carolina, and that Tennessee starts 1-0 over a Jets team he considers the third-worst in the league. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/37c0b874-cb1b-43c8-b78e-96a7b287ae62 (scored 0)
- John Breech on Las Vegas Raiders: Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9da8cc61-bdc3-40fd-bd7f-c02c99fe7b00 (scored 100)

## More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Matt Money Smith on Tre Harris: Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1f779ee4-78d9-4f01-a069-bcd0ef45fc72 (scored 0)
- Brandon Carney on Javonte Williams: Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9337347d-fde9-46c9-9bb6-26ade467538b (scored 100)
- Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Saquon Barkley: Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd0eab3d-1392-41f3-a9b6-026860f9ffa5 (scored 0)
- Ross Jackson on Devaughn Vele: Ross Jackson agreed to the same Saints mock draft board — Jeremiah Love at eight, Akeem Mesador in the second, Keonte Scott at 73, Keelan Rutledge and Ted Hurst in the fourth, Xavien Harris at 148, Aaron Anderson in the fifth and Bryce Boettcher in the sixth — and also called Devon Vellet a 2026 breakout candidate. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b4c58f9f-23b8-4857-8505-17c213d3a342 (scored 0)
- Greg Cosell on Omarion Hampton: Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/26c1330e-ee04-42a9-b29d-d6f0cc6bab6a (scored 0)
- Andrew Erickson on Saquon Barkley: Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/abd0628c-1338-467b-9ac3-d89c922468eb (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=marcus-mosher