# Gregg Rosenthal: Rosenthal thinks Arvel Reese makes sense for the Jets at No. 2 overall and may well be their pick, and he expects both Manuel McNeil Warren and Dylan Thieneman — the safeties in the mix behind Caleb Downs — to be first-round selections.

**Claimed:** Apr 2, 2026
**Pundit:** Gregg Rosenthal — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/gregg-rosenthal
**Outlet:** Around the NFL (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/around-the-nfl-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/nfl-daily/ranking-the-2026-defensive-nfl-draft-prospects

3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 73.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I was thinking he's a good pick for the Jets at two... he might have the higher ceiling so they might take him.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Dillon Thieneman
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
  - Verdict: scored 32.42 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Dillon Thieneman — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/dillon-thieneman
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/emmanuel-mcneil-warren

## What others said about the same people

- Nick Shook on Dillon Thieneman: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 56.94)
- Chris Rose on Carlton Davis III: Hosting a mock free-agency draft, Rose predicted destinations for Nick Bolton, Carlton Davis, Russell Wilson, Malcolm Koonce, Stefon Diggs, Byron Murphy, Chase Young and Jacoby Brissett, plus Justin Fields returning to Pittsburgh, Ronnie Stanley leaving Baltimore, and the Browns trading up to No. 1 to take Cam Ward. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/854e8838-2328-4092-997e-8ad4ee22995d (scored 0)
- Richard Sherman on Sam Darnold: Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/fd0cf59d-3729-4865-8641-02792d0b6b24 (scored 0)
- Judah Fortgang on New York Jets: An unsigned PFF top-down betting breakdown argues the Jets will beat the Titans in Week 1, reasoning that Geno Smith should face little disruption against Tennessee's weak pass rush while Cam Ward will struggle against New York's heavy man coverage. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/980701ec-65d4-4c99-8aa3-c1dc27da170b (scored 100)
- Bryan DeArdo on New York Jets: The CBS Sports preview picks the Jets to beat the Titans in their Week 1 matchup in Nashville, reasoning that Geno Smith's track record gives New York the edge in a close, low-scoring game. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2ca4f6ea-0531-43a5-b340-39f9b83ef38a (scored 100)
- Chad Millman on New York Jets: Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/de991e27-ec15-4c6e-ad88-b55bdaea8665 (scored 100)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100)
- Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7)
- Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52)
- Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

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