# Jake Ciely: Seey argues Alec Pierce is being badly underranked as Indianapolis' clear top receiver, likes Josh Downs and DJ Moore as undervalued, warns that Brian Thomas is vastly overrated after being reduced to a field-stretcher, and says rookie Caleb Douglas has the inside track to start outside for Miami despite being undrafted in fantasy. **Claimed:** May 16, 2026 **Pundit:** Jake Ciely — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/jake-ciely **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/4-fantasy-football-draft-values-experts-love-to-target-players-who-will-outperform-their-rankings-ep-2024 8 checkable claims — 4 sleeper calls, 3 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy bust call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. Of the 3 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one. > I have Alec Pierce in the conversation to be a wide receiver two because he's going to get one hundred and twenty thirty targets. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Alec Pierce to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Alec Pierce - Verdict: not settled yet - **DJ Moore to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: DJ Moore - Verdict: not settled yet - **Brian Thomas Jr. to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: not settled yet - **Parker Washington to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: not settled yet - **Josh Downs to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Josh Downs - Verdict: not settled yet - **Caleb Douglas to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Caleb Douglas, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: not settled yet - **Alec Pierce to outplay his draft cost (people still have him down in like the thirties)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Alec Pierce - Verdict: not settled yet - **Caleb Douglas to outplay his draft cost (completely undrafted and then undrafted and then still undrafted and redraft)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Caleb Douglas, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Alec Pierce — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/alec-pierce - DJ Moore — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/dj-moore - Brian Thomas Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/brian-thomas-jr - Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jaguars - Parker Washington — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/parker-washington - Josh Downs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/josh-downs - Caleb Douglas — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-douglas - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/dolphins ## What others said about the same people - John Shipley on Jack Kiser: Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c0a52b7c-63b2-4e18-b7da-9342dbbc111f (scored 0) - Nathan Jahnke on Jalen Tolbert: PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/760054fd-7815-4b86-a9e3-bc9bdb0a730b (scored 0) - Nathan Jahnke on Jalen Tolbert: PFF's fantasy football preseason recap projects depth-chart outcomes, roster spots and fantasy value for numerous players across several preseason games, including Chig Okonkwo's expanded role in Washington, Ja'Kobi Lane as Baltimore's WR3, Malachi Fields winning the Giants' starting X job, and Zachariah Branch being a fantasy bust relative to his late-round cost. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/22a4578b-eb92-41d2-820b-1a7eaa2e4e2f (scored 0) - Jared Dubin on Daniel Faalele: Dubin grades the Faalele trade, predicting Faalele has a decent chance to be Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard in competition with Wyatt Milum, and that Evan Neal's odds of making the Giants' 53-man roster improved while Jon Runyan and Francis Mauigoa hold the Giants' starting guard jobs. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/aae46267-fc6d-44c1-a96c-7355b3db857b (scored 0) - John Shipley on Patrick Mekari: Shipley projects second-year cornerback Jabbar Muhammad to make the Jaguars' 53-man roster and describes him as the team's clear No. 5 cornerback, a role that would earn him a game-day jersey. He also identifies Patrick Mekari, Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland as projected Week 1 offensive line starters. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/dd093e7d-3a57-4ecb-ae09-af7eadfb15b0 (scored 0) - Chad Millman on Miami Dolphins: Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bd767876-d060-44de-aa5a-3fc87ff4e749 (scored 0) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Money Smith on Tre Harris: Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1f779ee4-78d9-4f01-a069-bcd0ef45fc72 (scored 0) - Brandon Carney on Javonte Williams: Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9337347d-fde9-46c9-9bb6-26ade467538b (scored 100) - Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Saquon Barkley: Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd0eab3d-1392-41f3-a9b6-026860f9ffa5 (scored 0) - Ross Jackson on Devaughn Vele: Ross Jackson agreed to the same Saints mock draft board — Jeremiah Love at eight, Akeem Mesador in the second, Keonte Scott at 73, Keelan Rutledge and Ted Hurst in the fourth, Xavien Harris at 148, Aaron Anderson in the fifth and Bryce Boettcher in the sixth — and also called Devon Vellet a 2026 breakout candidate. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b4c58f9f-23b8-4857-8505-17c213d3a342 (scored 0) - Greg Cosell on Omarion Hampton: Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/26c1330e-ee04-42a9-b29d-d6f0cc6bab6a (scored 0) - Andrew Erickson on Malik Nabers: Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/abd0628c-1338-467b-9ac3-d89c922468eb (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=jake-ciely