# Mel Kiper: Kiper's latest mock draft, as described on the show, had Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to Las Vegas, safety Caleb Downs No. 2 to the Jets, Arbel Reese No. 4 to Tennessee, and edge rusher Ruben Behn to Cincinnati in the first round.

**Claimed:** Feb 25, 2026
**Pundit:** Mel Kiper — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/mel-kiper
**Outlet:** NFL Live (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/nfl-live-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP1825422470.mp3?updated=1772057649

4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 87.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Tennessee Titans
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ruben Behn, Cincinnati Bengals
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese
- Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans
- Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Ruben Behn — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ruben-behn
- Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bengals

## What others said about the same people

- John Middlekauff on Tennessee Titans: Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8115d255-82e3-442e-aeef-c3eaa3587603 (scored 0)
- Bryan DeArdo on Cincinnati Bengals: He picks the Bengals to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, defensive game, arguing Pittsburgh's struggling offense can't break through against Cincinnati's strong defense. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/105a1dc7-6107-450a-bc8d-a65798ee0257 (scored 50)
- Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson said Marvin Harrison Jr. needs a change of scenery in his make-or-break third year, and predicted the Bengals would handle the Steelers' secondary in their upcoming meeting. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b068f295-6627-4d48-8198-ea614cce06b6 (scored 0)
- Chris Broussard on Las Vegas Raiders: Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/dee7585c-6da6-4afc-9954-ff32cf8de4e3 (scored 100)
- Danny Parkins on Cincinnati Bengals: In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/88f60b41-3824-4b00-b0f0-f434c55c539b (scored 0)
- Kevin Wildes on New York Jets: For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/35bc2cfa-9927-43ce-be97-5c73bb6517fd (scored 0)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100)
- Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81)
- Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7)
- Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

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