# Rich Hribar: In his red-zone regression study, Hribar argues Jaxson Dart is undervalued this offseason and that his stock rises sharply if his red-zone passing efficiency merely reaches league baseline; he is also bullish on Justin Herbert improving in 2026 and on Tyler Shough having big upside if the Saints generate more red-zone trips. **Claimed:** Jul 30, 2026 **Pundit:** Rich Hribar — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/rich-hribar **Outlet:** Sharp Football Analysis — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/sharp-football-analysis **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/nfl-red-zone-stats-expectations-quarterbacks/ 3 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > Even if Dart can get to baseline levels of passing efficiency near the end zone, his stock goes way up. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **Jaxson Dart to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jaxson Dart, New York Giants - Verdict: not settled yet - **Justin Herbert to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Tyler Shough — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tyler-shough - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/saints - Jaxson Dart — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jaxson-dart - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants - Justin Herbert — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/justin-herbert - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chargers ## What others said about the same people - Chad Millman on New York Giants: Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bd767876-d060-44de-aa5a-3fc87ff4e749 (scored 100) - Chris Roling on Los Angeles Chargers: Roling predicts a lopsided Chargers home win over the Cardinals in Week 1, 30-10, and advises starting Justin Herbert and Omarion Hampton in fantasy while sitting Ladd McConkey. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d4c64a5c-84bf-4ed6-9779-882e9a8fb212 (scored 30.95) - Pete Prisco on Los Angeles Chargers: Prisco predicts the Lions blow out the Saints in Detroit and that the Chargers rout the Cardinals behind a new-look offense. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2bb82ce8-249f-4f77-b543-f84d64882973 (scored 0) - Shanna McCarriston on Los Angeles Chargers: The unsigned CBS Sports preview picks the Chargers to beat the Cardinals 27-17 in Week 1, and expects rookie Jake Slaughter to step in at center for Los Angeles after Tyler Biadasz's injury. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/77fd63b2-8b02-46a8-a1f9-dc052aa896c6 (scored 45.24) - Simon Hunter on New York Giants: Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5ac46502-b65b-469b-befc-16fbc672b011 (scored 100) - Chad Millman on New York Giants: Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/de991e27-ec15-4c6e-ad88-b55bdaea8665 (scored 100) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Brandon Carney on Javonte Williams: Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9337347d-fde9-46c9-9bb6-26ade467538b (scored 100) - Chad Ochocinco Johnson on Saquon Barkley: Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd0eab3d-1392-41f3-a9b6-026860f9ffa5 (scored 0) - Andrew Erickson on Saquon Barkley: Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/abd0628c-1338-467b-9ac3-d89c922468eb (scored 0) - Jake Ciely on Saquon Barkley: Sealey laid out his projected first round for 2026 fantasy drafts, opening with Bijan Robinson followed by three wide receivers, then a tier of running backs, and closing with Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Omarion Hampton. He also called Saquon Barkley a buy-low. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b63cc1db-f999-42de-9255-55ffa7d8d29f (scored 0) - Mike Harmon on Zay Flowers: Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e2e20c82-d482-48e6-90f3-929d0862fc0d (scored 100) - Adam Rank on J.J. McCarthy: Rank recommends JJ McCarthy as a Week 15 quarterback streamer against Dallas and thinks Shedeur Sanders can carry fantasy teams into the semifinals against the Bears. For the Week 15 'perfect lineup' he picks Drake Maye as the top quarterback and Christian McCaffrey as a top running back, and he expects Terry McLaurin to produce with Marcus Mariota starting. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/edbecc9c-cb9a-405e-b3d5-856af9f4e21f (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=rich-hribar