# Mark Morales-Smith: Morales-Smith names four running backs as 2026 fantasy busts to avoid: Christian McCaffrey (injury risk, declining efficiency at a top-three ADP), Josh Jacobs (declining yardage as a fringe RB1), Kyren Williams (capped ceiling from a Blake Corum timeshare), and Breece Hall (stuck in a weak Jets offense with competition for touches).

**Claimed:** Aug 5, 2026
**Pundit:** Mark Morales-Smith — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/mark-morales-smith
**Outlet:** Sports Illustrated — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/sports-illustrated
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.si.com/onsi/fantasy/nfl/fantasy-football-running-back-busts-to-avoid-breece-hall-is-risky-but-three-higher-ranked-rbs-are-riskier

2 checkable claims — 2 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> With the looming injury risk and declining efficiency, we can't buy into McCaffrey at his ADP.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (being drafted as a top three fantasy running back)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (a fringe RB1)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Christian McCaffrey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers
- Josh Jacobs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/josh-jacobs
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/packers

## What others said about the same people

- John Middlekauff on San Francisco 49ers: In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6b74ac24-5cde-4063-b243-78341ac76343 (scored 100)
- Alain Poupart on San Francisco 49ers: Poupart predicts the 49ers beat the Dolphins 27-17 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2, though he expects the game to be closer than the spread suggests. He also anticipates a larger role for De'Von Achane and a big passing day from Brock Purdy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/70e53b3b-fd72-43e7-a99b-655f41a11160 (scored 71.43)
- Derek Brown on San Francisco 49ers: In a Week 2 start/sit column, Derek Brown gave lineup advice on running backs, including a prediction that the 49ers would blow out the Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2ce05a0a-dccb-4701-80fa-9809feec8175 (scored 100)
- Greg Jennings on Green Bay Packers: Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/420d3e29-6224-43a2-8d68-b15c864838cd (scored 100)
- Alain Poupart on San Francisco 49ers: Answering a mailbag ahead of the Dolphins-49ers game, Poupart says logic points to Miami losing because San Francisco is the far better team, while allowing that upsets happen. He also lays out what would have to happen for a Dolphins win (Achane running wild or the defense intercepting Brock Purdy). — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/99ecba7f-1162-43c1-9990-e5868a5b4c85 (scored 100)
- Alain Poupart on San Francisco 49ers: Poupart, while arguing the Dolphins have upset history as big underdogs, ultimately leans toward San Francisco beating Miami in their Week 2 matchup, saying it's too much to predict a Dolphins upset. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/92666fd1-265d-4ba3-874b-65af7c66fd79 (scored 100)

## More fantasy bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Zay Flowers: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 0)
- Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Joe Pisapia on Rashee Rice: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Chuba Hubbard: Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as his ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9cc5c06e-e0c5-45bd-8b93-fa089f8673a8 (scored 100)

---

Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=mark-morales-smith