# Derek Brown: Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.

**Claimed:** Aug 23, 2025
**Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/derek-brown
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/top-10-breakout-candidates-middle-late-round-fantasy-football-draft-targets-ep-1664

9 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 9 have settled, averaging 50.7 out of 100, against 24.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Brian Robinson to move — “cut or traded”**
  - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Brian Robinson
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (he's being drafted as a wide receiver three)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Jacory Croskey-Merritt to outplay his draft cost (He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (going is the tight end eleven)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Tucker Kraft to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 8.33 out of 100, against 16.67 for a naive guess
- **Tetairoa McMillan to record 10 receiving tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
  - Verdict: scored 8.33 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Brian Robinson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/brian-robinson
- George Pickens — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/george-pickens
- Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cowboys
- Ricky Pearsall — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ricky-pearsall
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jacory-croskey-merritt
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Tetairoa McMillan — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tetairoa-mcmillan
- Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/panthers
- Tucker Kraft — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tucker-kraft
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/packers

## What others said about the same people

- Randy Gurzi on Justin Barron: Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a37588ef-f76e-4f06-a951-a85a563271d5 (scored 0)
- Mike Moraitis on DaRon Bland: Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/66b5ed7b-41bd-4f67-9b4d-16eae4675e67 (scored 0)
- Seth Walder on Kayshon Boutte: Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0263bd78-6c5c-41c5-8615-0467d8ef521a (scored 0)
- Garrett Podell on Stefon Diggs: A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bc79861b-dbde-474e-9d55-bf50f7b766d2 (scored 100)
- Bucky Brooks on Stefon Diggs: In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9538b827-fc12-4c2e-8e32-eaa69edc6c2d (scored 100)
- Mike Tannenbaum on Stefon Diggs: Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f7a29c18-face-49c0-b84f-33715b4c6678 (scored 0)

## More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Chris Welsh on Tyler Warren: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Joe Pisapia on Tyreek Hill: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Jake Ciely on Braelon Allen: Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6b5a40bc-e349-48a1-ad37-18ee448ebe75 (scored 0)
- Ryan Wormeli on Cedric Tillman: Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2c695b79-bc5e-4d3f-8136-6705656267a2 (scored 0)
- Ryan Wormeli on Calvin Ridley: Warmley ranks Nico Collins his WR4 and Drake London his WR5, argues Ja'Marr Chase should be the No. 1 fantasy player again, has Tetairoa McMillan inside his top 20 receivers, and says Emeka Egbuka could be a top-24 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0716e9e8-c302-49d3-bd08-21cb0a8941e6 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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