# Lance Zierlein: Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year. **Claimed:** Apr 24, 2026 **Pundit:** Lance Zierlein — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/lance-zierlein **Outlet:** John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8895103.mp3?modified=1777042750&sid=4936948&source=rss 6 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I gave them a tackle in the first round because somebody at NFL Network convinced me. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Christen Miller to be picked at number 38** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Christen Miller, Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kyle Louis, Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 4.05 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Kyle Louis, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl** - Kind: Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls · About: Francis Mauigoa - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants** - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants - Verdict: not settled yet - **Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Christen Miller — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/christen-miller - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Kyle Louis — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kyle-louis - Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa - Kayvon Thibodeaux — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kayvon-thibodeaux - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/rams ## What others said about the same people - Nick Shook on Aaron Donald: Shook unveiled his first NFL power rankings of the year, putting the Rams first, the Broncos second and the defending champion Seahawks only third, with the Dolphins last. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ea18c6ec-7662-4e66-91ed-4d0ef9d7d97d (scored 100) - Chad Millman on New York Giants: Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bd767876-d060-44de-aa5a-3fc87ff4e749 (scored 100) - John Breech on Houston Texans: Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9da8cc61-bdc3-40fd-bd7f-c02c99fe7b00 (scored 0) - Judah Fortgang on Houston Texans: PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3c975cce-7d78-48c7-95ad-f5d06adbf4a8 (scored 0) - Judah Fortgang on Houston Texans: An unsigned PFF betting piece argues Cooper Rush will struggle against Pittsburgh's disruption pressure in Week 1, and that Buffalo's rebuilt secondary without Sean McDermott will be exploitable by C.J. Stroud, leading them to back Houston winning through the air. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1c4105a4-26a0-4592-b314-eacdc44833e9 (scored 0) - Simon Hunter on Houston Texans: Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5ac46502-b65b-469b-befc-16fbc672b011 (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Rob Rang on Jeremiah Smith: Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cd619cef-1878-4067-9021-a5ec734d35ed (scored 0) - Gregg Rosenthal on Brandon Doughty: Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/16ab5f5d-0f01-48ee-a1df-63c1b1996dc3 (scored 2.63) - Peter Bukowski on Gennings Dunker: Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f77d920f-e5fe-4684-83b6-9105b6304d5b (scored 100) - David Harrison on Eli Heidenreich: Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5cc44fc1-4ff9-447a-9c32-5f715fa6e9ba (scored 100) - Brian Peacock on Bud Clark: In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cc1842ef-bbb3-49c0-ad24-ec5db753c59b (scored 95.76) - David Harrison on Riley Nowakowski: In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e0151883-b7ac-4b3a-ae45-1cc58b32adb8 (scored 12.5) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=lance-zierlein