# Derek Brown: Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light. **Claimed:** Jun 14, 2025 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/6-fantasy-football-projections-that-scare-us-for-2025-ep-1587 5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls. > if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Drake Maye, New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Tyreek Hill — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/tyreek-hill - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Xavier Worthy — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/xavier-worthy - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Chase Brown — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chase-brown - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Kyren Williams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kyren-williams - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/rams - Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/drake-maye - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/patriots ## What others said about the same people - Steven Ruiz on A.J. Brown: Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6f6c3a28-18bb-4f4d-beb5-061d863b4e28 (scored 100) - Brandon Carney on A.J. Brown: Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c4d477da-4fb8-4a25-a904-c5057a249a70 (scored 100) - Jeremy White on A.J. Brown: Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a8701720-01eb-4a29-8bf1-5a8555f0d1ed (scored 100) - Chris Brockman on A.J. Brown: Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2307f474-6a3d-405e-b048-7b023ffda1be (scored 100) - Shannon Sharpe on A.J. Brown: Sharpe predicted that A.J. Brown will be playing for New England once June 1 arrives. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4b2704cf-245c-4a11-af0e-8164d327c7e0 (scored 100) - Chad Ochocinco Johnson on A.J. Brown: Ochocinco predicted George Pickens will be traded away from Dallas now that he has signed the franchise tag, naming the Browns, Raiders and possibly Buffalo as his three landing spots. He also called both No. 2 pick David Bailey and No. 3 pick Jeremiah Love immediate Day 1 starters, and said he has been saying for months that A.J. Brown will end up in New England. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/006b1a76-95ea-423a-9f60-c10571a7f605 (scored 100) ## More fantasy bust calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0) - Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0) - Joe Pisapia on Christian McCaffrey: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0) - Sean Kerner on Travis Hunter: Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though he calls Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. He is all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ec510a56-f0ae-4583-8e26-5b031d8d6d10 (scored 0) - Jake Ciely on Romeo Doubs: Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating him as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. He also calls out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/98137bb9-928a-4022-9e69-99386656d01a (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown