# Todd McShay: McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven. **Claimed:** Apr 15, 2026 **Pundit:** Todd McShay — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/todd-mcshay **Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP8827087165.mp3?updated=1776277489 19 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks, 4 team draft slot calls and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 15 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 90.6 out of 100, against 47.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 4 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 3. > I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **K.C. Concepcion to be 4th receiver off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: K.C. Concepcion - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 13.82 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Mansoor Delane - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francis Mauigoa, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Olaivavega Ioane - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **New Orleans Saints to pick at number 3** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **New York Jets to pick at number 7** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: New York Jets - Verdict: not settled yet - **Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 6** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: not settled yet - **Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 30** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - K.C. Concepcion — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/k-c-concepcion - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans - Mansoor Delane — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/mansoor-delane - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/saints - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/giants - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Olaivavega Ioane — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/olaivavega-ioane ## What others said about the same people - Tyler Sullivan on Jake Haener: Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/eb928ca7-b6fd-41e7-8b48-b38e4f64ce09 (scored 0) - Randy Gurzi on Reddy Steward: Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a37588ef-f76e-4f06-a951-a85a563271d5 (scored 0) - Nathan Jahnke on Devin Duvernay: PFF's preseason usage recap makes a number of depth-chart and roster projections, including nine rookie receivers slotting as top-three options on their teams, sleeper tight end usage, and specific depth-chart placements for Cardinals, Falcons and Ravens players. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8f52d1f8-91ed-459c-99a7-30c2d3fb38e0 (scored 100) - Nathan Jahnke on Devin Duvernay: An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/47566b48-8024-4960-b25c-11c03fe43543 (scored 100) - Patricia Traina on Paulson Adebo: Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8bb1a183-b45b-44db-8a61-23bdd2238a6b (scored 100) - Nathan Jahnke on Devin Duvernay: PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/265cbdba-b0e0-4f80-9665-a4ca5aaec53e (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Makai Lemon: Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a61a436c-f178-40ce-aedd-fa92cbc80c82 (scored 95.76) - Scott Bogman on Kayden McDonald: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 47.88) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=todd-mcshay