# Tyler Sullivan: An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night. **Claimed:** Sep 10, 2026 **Pundit:** Tyler Sullivan — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/tyler-sullivan **Outlet:** CBS Sports — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/cbs-sports **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-teams-on-upset-alert-in-week-1/ 5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Below, we'll comb through the Week 1 slate and identify five favorites that could be on upset alert. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Denver Broncos to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New York Jets to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New York Jets - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Houston Texans to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Carolina Panthers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **San Francisco 49ers to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/broncos - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/jets - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/texans - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/panthers - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/49ers ## What others said about the same people - Mike Tannenbaum on Stefon Diggs: Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f7a29c18-face-49c0-b84f-33715b4c6678 (scored 0) - Evan Silva on San Francisco 49ers: In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/180b1036-60e5-494b-9b4d-90b5dc3d6528 (scored 0) - Jared Dubin on Denver Broncos: Dubin picks Denver to win narrowly in Kansas City, 21-20. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b4339e96-6ced-44c2-88e9-b490d027df7b (scored 2.38) - Jordan Dajani on Denver Broncos: Dajani picks the Broncos over the Chiefs, 17-14. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/12e23aa9-d2ca-4db3-bfb0-25c09e63b1eb (scored 7.14) - John Breech on Denver Broncos: In the Pick Six newsletter, Breech picks the Broncos to upset the Chiefs on Monday night, 23-21. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/31f3511a-a211-46e0-a6dd-d2cfb70ee207 (scored 4.76) - Jared Dubin on Denver Broncos: The unbylined CBS Sports preview picks Denver to win at Arrowhead in Week 1, 21-20, and expects Kenneth Walker III to be Kansas City's lead back while Jaylen Waddle serves as Bo Nix's top receiving target in Denver. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cdfdacff-d438-489d-bad2-1d9587b82609 (scored 2.38) ## More game outcome picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - John Pluym on Kansas City Chiefs: Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e7e5c159-21f2-4766-92de-857294ef51cf (scored 100) - Matt Verderame on Kansas City Chiefs: Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e4f51f97-310d-4665-a47e-fdab93ff1fd1 (scored 100) - Mike Kadlick on Kansas City Chiefs: Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/934613ff-97e3-4894-a383-faa755bdfc35 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Wright lays out his 2026 season picks: all eight division winners, the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins and a 6-0 start, Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl with Kansas City winning, plus value picks on the Seahawks and Eagles to win the NFC. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/28eb6893-6945-42b1-970e-c8647881f733 (scored 100) - Richard Sherman on Kansas City Chiefs: Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/72ff16c2-b2aa-4bf7-aad7-0cdabfa8a999 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Wright locked in his preseason picks: the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins, eight division winners, Eagles/Broncos/Chiefs to make the playoffs, Eagles and Seahawks to come out of the NFC, and a Chiefs win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/fce97149-84fb-4412-88c5-84a696e7905f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=tyler-sullivan