# Tom Strachan: In his Week 1 start/sit column, Strachan flags four players as risky starts — Carnell Tate, Kyle Pitts, Quinshon Judkins and Rashee Rice — and three as safe starts — Javonte Williams, Ashton Jeanty and Chris Olave. He also suggests the Raiders will open with a home win over Miami. **Claimed:** Sep 9, 2026 **Pundit:** Tom Strachan — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/tom-strachan **Outlet:** FantasyPros — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/fantasypros **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.fantasypros.com/2026/09/fantasy-football-start-sit-advice-safe-risky-picks-week-1-2026/ 8 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls, 3 sleeper calls and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 1 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Everything about Pitts screams risky. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Las Vegas Raiders to win** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Ashton Jeanty to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: not settled yet - **Chris Olave to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **Quinshon Judkins to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: not settled yet - **Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: not settled yet - **Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: not settled yet - **Carnell Tate to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kyle Pitts to fall short of his draft cost** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Ashton Jeanty — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ashton-jeanty - Chris Olave — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/chris-olave - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/saints - Quinshon Judkins — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/quinshon-judkins - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/browns - Rashee Rice — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/rashee-rice - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Javonte Williams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/javonte-williams - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/titans - Kyle Pitts — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/kyle-pitts - Atlanta Falcons — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/falcons ## What others said about the same people - Ralph Vacchiano on Tua Tagovailoa: Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6f782be9-64d3-47cf-b054-6566e14194d6 (scored 0) - Mike Moraitis on DaRon Bland: Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/66b5ed7b-41bd-4f67-9b4d-16eae4675e67 (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Michael Penix Jr.: In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/968b3764-11ef-41b5-a370-ff570b3219d1 (scored 0) - Mike Florio on Shedeur Sanders: Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf6258b2-b55f-4f50-84f9-24269a5a006a (scored 0) - Paul Keren on Teven Jenkins: Keren says Teven Jenkins still projects as Cleveland's Week 1 starting right guard despite a push from KT Leveston, and that Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams will be the Browns' lead linebackers. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/86b36112-724c-4f9c-a4fd-cf74a38be8e4 (scored 0) - John Breech on Tua Tagovailoa: The unsigned Pick Six newsletter expects Seth McLaughlin to step into the Lions' starting center job with Cade Mays injured, and suggests Tua Tagovailoa is on track to be Atlanta's Week 1 starting quarterback. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a040e9f9-5016-4dce-b2b3-a4c411e950f5 (scored 0) ## More fantasy bust calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Mike Harmon on Joe Burrow: Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e2e20c82-d482-48e6-90f3-929d0862fc0d (scored 100) - Patrick Claybon on Aaron Rodgers: Claibon says Aaron Rodgers' deep-passing outburst was a one-week product of Baltimore's defense and won't continue, still endorses starting Jacoby Brissett in a tough Houston matchup, and picks Devon Achane as the top running back and AJ Brown as the top receiver for Week 15. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/13d54729-d582-4201-9440-31f8510c7305 (scored 100) - Marcas Grant on Michael Pittman: Grant calls Christian Watson the Packers' clear No. 1 receiver and RJ Harvey Denver's lead back, while labeling Mike Gesicki's and Tony Pollard's big weeks mirages to avoid; he also wants no part of Colts pass catchers with Philip Rivers signing. For Week 15 he picks Matthew Stafford as the top quarterback and Puka Nacua among the top receivers. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d990340b-36f2-4842-81d8-d08a5f3db65a (scored 0) - Andrew Erickson on Cooper Kupp: Erickson reiterated his prediction that Jordan Mason will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, backed the Broncos to blow out the Titans in Week 1, called Garrett Wilson a sell and Jacoby Myers a buy-low, expects little from Cooper Kupp, and made several depth-chart calls (Thornton starting in New England, Myers as Vegas' No. 1 receiver, Croskey-Merritt eventually taking the Commanders' 'A back' role). — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3809e587-6fa2-464b-ab98-fd96d353c1bd (scored 100) - Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0) - Derek Brown on Zay Flowers: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=tom-strachan