# John Middlekauff: Middlekauff hammers the Rams for taking quarterback Ty Simpson 13th overall, arguing Simpson's ceiling is only that of a 10th-to-15th-best NFL quarterback and that the pick can't repay its cost. He also cautions against the 2027 quarterback hype, saying that based on last season's play Dante Moore, not Arch Manning, would be his No. 1 overall pick.

**Claimed:** Apr 27, 2026
**Pundit:** John Middlekauff — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/pundits/john-middlekauff
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/nfl-post-draft-reaction-steelers-botch-makai-lemon-pick-rams-overdraft-ty-simpson-bad-draft-for-49ers

2 checkable claims — 1 draft bust call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> His best case scenario is to be like the tenth to fifteenth quarterback in the NFL, that's best case scenario.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Matt Moore to be picked at number 1**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Matt Moore
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level**
  - Kind: Draft Bust Calls · About: Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Matt Moore — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/matt-moore
- Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/nfl/teams/rams

## What others said about the same people

- Jared Dubin on Los Angeles Rams: Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e613e391-ce67-4554-a115-59096e1fecfd (scored 50)
- Dan Orlovsky on Los Angeles Rams: Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/35fbf38d-85b0-4e52-b089-d8d9b6858e46 (scored 100)
- Jared Dubin on Los Angeles Rams: Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Giants 27-17 on Monday night. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/ddd6b22a-35e3-4d39-bbda-13fab6705e64 (scored 71.43)
- Pete Prisco on Los Angeles Rams: Prisco picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-14. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1c7b3a7f-651c-4ca3-987c-81b5499efbc7 (scored 85.71)
- Jordan Dajani on Los Angeles Rams: Dajani picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-21. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/0ee2d609-d044-481e-a8a3-627c7fbc89e7 (scored 69.05)
- John Breech on Los Angeles Rams: Breech expects Caleb Williams to return quickly from his hamstring injury, at the latest by Week 4 against the Jets or Week 5 against the Packers, and he picked the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday night. He also floated the Saints as a potential surprise team this season. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/66fd2840-c785-4c7f-9284-eb570c4dd0c4 (scored 54.76)

## More draft bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Kyle Soppe on Xavier Worthy: Soppe names four players he considers overvalued for 2026 fantasy football after hot 2025 seasons — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Patrick Mahomes, Rhamondre Stevenson and Harold Fannin Jr. — and argues Smith-Njigba is far more likely to repeat his modest 2024 line than his 2025 explosion, while Xavier Worthy won't justify his first-round draft capital and TreVeyon Henderson takes over New England's lead backfield role. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/5a87db58-a7a1-4566-96ec-251ca84ab033 (not settled)
- Colin Cowherd on Quentin Johnston: In a one-minute-per-team AFC preview, the unnamed host called the Bills a near-lock for 10 wins and still the AFC East favorite, tabbed the Dolphins as the league's worst team with the Jets close behind, said Aaron Glenn may be the NFL's worst head coach, projected another nine-win season for the Bengals, called Cleveland's quarterback room the league's worst, insisted Patrick Mahomes will start Week 1, and doubted Quentin Johnston will justify his draft slot. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6c1a83de-acda-4862-a55f-55eaab57eb73 (not settled)
- Eric Crocker on De'Zhaun Stribling: In a mock war-room debate, Crocker argued the 49ers wasted the 33rd overall pick on Dejean Stribling, comparing him to the Trey Lance gamble on traits and work ethic, and citing inconsistent route-running and trouble playing through contact. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3f1ccd5e-16d8-4ec0-ba91-36c9fe1d2767 (not settled)
- Gregg Rosenthal on David Bailey: After the first round, Rosenthal said he's going back to being bullish on Tampa Bay, expecting them to exceed whatever win total is set, and made several role/depth-chart calls on newly drafted players — Mendoza starting Week 1 in Las Vegas, Concepcion leading Cleveland in targets, Mauiinoa opening at guard, Rutledge at center, Price as Seattle's RB1 and Wandell Robinson sliding to a No. 3 receiver role. He also called the Jets' David Bailey pick at No. 2 a mistake. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/2ea186a2-72bf-4b8d-93cf-dee430b987f8 (not settled)
- Pat Gustavson on Jordyn Tyson: Gustafson handled the even-numbered mock draft picks: David Bailey No. 2 to the Jets, Jeremiah Love No. 4 to the Titans, Karnell Tate No. 6 to the Browns, Ruben Bane No. 8 to the Saints, Jordan Tyson No. 10 to the Giants, and so on. He also said Ty Simpson will be the biggest first-round bust and predicted the Cowboys will trade up into the top five. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/30d59654-62db-490c-8786-44b8d55e5746 (not settled)
- Brandon Carney on Kenyon Sadiq: Co-hosting a mock draft, Carney made the odd-numbered picks: Fernando Mendoza No. 1 to the Raiders, Arvell Reese No. 3 to the Cardinals, Sonny Styles No. 5 to the Giants, Mekhi Lemon No. 7 to the Commanders, Caleb Downs No. 9 to the Chiefs, and more. He also predicted AJ Brown will be a Patriot, said Kenyan Saddiq will be the first-round bust, and picked the Bengals to finish ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. — https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/7184a8b6-1036-4304-a147-3b8889e3f86b (not settled)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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