# Trade Calls Lose to the Baseline, Rich Eisen's Chiefs Ledger, and the Field's Win-Total Cracks | MissedTakes Daily

*Published 2026-08-30 — MissedTakes*

The past seven days put 1,029 graded takes on the board, and the biggest bucket was the one that went worst. Trade and Signing Calls accounted for 349 of them and averaged 51.3 accuracy with a skill delta of **−15.07** — the only large category this week that finished *below* a naive baseline. Everything else in the transaction-and-camp family cleared it.

![Graded in the last seven days](/posts/visuals/48db3e60-5f1a-4a53-b352-4d67e987e7ab.png)

A caveat on how to read the rest: for six of this week's eight types, the site's all-time graded count is identical to the count graded this week, so the type averages below are this week's cohort. Depth Chart Calls (63 this week) and Mock Draft Picks (124) sit inside much longer histories and can't be isolated that cleanly.

| Type | Graded | Avg accuracy | Avg skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade and Signing Calls | 349 | 51.3 | −15.07 |
| Sleeper Calls | 308 | 52.6 | +12.32 |
| Fantasy Bust Calls | 84 | 58.3 | +27.93 |
| Roster Spot Calls | 49 | 81.6 | −4.08 |
| Combine Measurements | 41 | 68.8 | +21.75 |
| Combine Superlatives | 4 | 100 | +100 |

Inside the transaction bucket, the spread is wide. [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) leads it at 77.3 accuracy on 22 graded calls (+27.27 skill). [Tom Strachan](/pundits/tom-strachan) came in at 19.0 on 21, and [Chris Rose](/pundits/chris-rose) went 0-for-12 — every one of his graded movement calls scored zero, for a −100 skill delta. Rose has exactly one article in the system, so that is a single afternoon of talk radio, not a body of work.

Sleeper Calls ran the other direction. Chris Welsh posted 82.4 accuracy on 17 graded (+128.76 skill), Marcus Mosher 69.2 on 13, Strachan 62.5 on 24 — and [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) 45.9 on 37, the largest sleeper sample of the week.

Erickson also supplies this week's best illustration of why a "take" isn't one number. [The same segment](/opinions/3809e587-6fa2-464b-ab98-fd96d353c1bd) — Jordan Mason to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, Garrett Wilson a sell, Thornton starting in New England — scored 100 on its bust claims and 0 on its sleeper claims. It shows up in both the week's best and worst calls. [Mitchell Eisenstein's](/pundits/mitchell-eisenstein) [Lions-over-Bills Super Bowl slate](/opinions/7fedb68a-c73b-4823-9b46-158905a559ef) did the same thing in reverse.

## Nobody officially changed their mind. Eisen's Chiefs file did it anyway.

The site's change-of-mind log came up empty this week — no flagged reversals. But the newly visible win-total ledgers contain one worth reading in order. On the [Chiefs](/nfl/teams/chiefs), Eisen went [12 wins on May 30](/opinions/58294e05-37ea-442e-a00c-7adac5e7ea56), down to [double digits on June 23](/opinions/1e372f85-6770-4afa-8ebb-98523328990b), then up to [15-2 on June 24](/opinions/f459dcdd-8743-4d75-86ab-10604114218b), [15 again on June 26](/opinions/27347c22-ef0d-4d66-95f2-29be519124b6), and back to [10 in mid-November](/opinions/f7e77ff9-c596-4b8e-a10d-989cd6fa12a9) ("They have to win five of those games. Absolutely will."). Kansas City finished with 6. Five calls, four scoring 20 or below. Eisen's overall win-total record is 35.33 accuracy across 18 graded, a −2.52 score, against 62.20 accuracy and a +15.35 score on his full 484-take file.

## The consensus data: one team broke the field

Kansas City is where the 2025 field failed collectively, not individually. Thirteen graded calls, average miss of **−6.3 wins**. New England is the mirror image: 11 calls, none higher than 10, and the Patriots won 14 — a +5 collective miss. Seattle (+5 on 7 calls) and Denver (+5 on 6) were missed the same way, and the Raiders (−4.5) and Commanders (−4.8) the other.

![2025 win totals: where the field missed as a group](/posts/visuals/eb09acb3-0eda-4866-857b-1d7c66956b8d.png)

Awards are the one place the crowd looks smart. On 2025 ballots, the plurality pick won MVP (Matthew Stafford, 26 of 100 picks), Offensive Player of the Year (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 7 of 20), Defensive Player of the Year (Myles Garrett, 6 of 18) and Comeback Player (Christian McCaffrey, 2 of 6). Tetairoa McMillan tied for the ORoY lead at 5 of 29 before winning it, and Carson Schwesinger finished second on the DRoY straw poll behind Abdul Carter. Individual award picks still grade at 21.2 accuracy site-wide — the field's modal answer is far better than the field's average member.

On the 124 mock picks graded this week, the standing case study hasn't moved: 76.6 average accuracy on players mocked in Round 1 across 1,619 calls, falling to 26.9 for anyone mocked at 176 or later, with average miss distance climbing from 9.9 picks to 49.6.

## Board check

[David Harrison](/pundits/david-harrison) still leads with a 48.77 score and 68.33 accuracy on 131 graded takes, ahead of [Lance Zierlein](/pundits/lance-zierlein) (43.01) and [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) (35.62). Every name in the top eight is still flagged limited confidence; [Daniel Jeremiah](/pundits/daniel-jeremiah) at No. 9 (277 graded) is the only established record up there. Full standings on the [leaderboard](/leaderboard), and the scoring rules are in the [methodology](/methodology).