# Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview 2026: 13 Sleeper Calls on Luther Burden, After the Field Went 0-for-2 on Him Last Year

*Published 2026-08-30 — MissedTakes*

The [Chicago Bears](/nfl/teams/bears) went 11-6 and made the playoffs in 2025, and fantasy punditry has responded the way it always does to a team that got good: by naming everyone on the offense a breakout candidate. Since March 1 we have logged **51 sleeper calls** and **7 bust calls** on Bears players, plus 26 positional-finish claims. Almost none of it is graded yet — the season hasn't started — so the useful question is not "who is right" but "what has this kind of call been worth before."

Here is the group-by-group version, then the accuracy math.

![Bears sleeper calls this offseason, by player](/posts/visuals/1260552f-9958-4388-8464-0f7a1c337f43.png)

## Tight end: [Colston Loveland](/nfl/players/colston-loveland) is the closest thing to consensus

Thirteen sleeper calls this offseason, plus eleven separate positional-finish claims — more than any other Bear on either count. The claims are not shy. [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) said Loveland ["could easily pick up right where he left off this season and compete with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for the TE1 crown."](/opinions/6a93484f-4b5a-4c14-a95c-fe50f3494bae) [Jake Ciely](/pundits/jake-ciely)'s projection ["spat him out as number one at tight end."](/opinions/46b02102-45c7-4c79-8a1f-8de25766d06c) [Albert Breer](/pundits/albert-breer), after watching camp, [circled him](/opinions/d7d2949a-89eb-4b53-9a4e-49f32b4bcd3b) as the offensive player most likely to break through. [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano) went further: [he "might be the NFL's top receiver at his position."](/opinions/6e1c3a45-6b4f-48e5-b865-066206820d14)

The price is the whole argument. [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) has him at [a 4.02 ADP](/opinions/d8c2a320-6b7b-491b-a939-f8c07d0d0e7b) and calls him a value there; PFF's sleeper piece lists an ADP of 40.3, TE3 by their board. [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice)'s version is the most concrete instruction in the pile: ["If you miss out on Bowers in the second round, target Loveland in the fourth round."](/opinions/4820f93c-16a0-4f75-807f-75bf79a92e5c) We found no published Loveland fade at all.

Worth noting where the consensus came from: he finished **TE9** as a rookie, which cleared the startable-tier bar the site grades sleeper calls against. Both graded Loveland sleeper calls from last cycle scored 100.

## Wide receiver: the field is split on [Luther Burden III](/nfl/players/luther-burden-iii), and it whiffed on him last year

Burden ties Loveland for the team lead with 13 sleeper calls, and he is also the only Bear anyone is actively fading — three of the seven bust calls are his. [Mike Renner](/pundits/mike-renner) said he is ["due for a massive breakout year."](/opinions/b0274ee9-e2ce-46cd-8227-bb7c284f4910) [Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks) expects his ["production to skyrocket."](/opinions/bc1b0b2f-1c01-470c-bb5b-bf1e98241c85) [Rob Rang](/pundits/rob-rang) called last year's 47-652-2 ["only the tip of the iceberg."](/opinions/053d0019-fc83-42f2-a9dc-d59d989c2160) One of the "buy" quotes is from Bears head coach Ben Johnson, which is not independent analysis.

Against that: Mike Fanelli has twice written that "the hype around Burden has gotten out of control," at ADPs of 41.1 (WR17) and 45.81 (WR21), and Kyle Zeigler argues at a WR22 price that "Burden isn't going to see 80 more targets just because Moore is gone. Some of the targets will go to Rome Odunze as well."

The site's graded record says the skeptics deserve a hearing. Both Burden sleeper calls that have been graded scored **0** — [Fitzmaurice's July 2025 call](/opinions/bed875af-db54-4ebc-b3da-9102b06adea7) that he "could dramatically outkick his ADP" and [Mike Harmon](/pundits/mike-harmon)'s [Week 18 endorsement](/opinions/e2e20c82-d482-48e6-90f3-929d0862fc0d). He finished **WR49** against a WR36 bar. That is one player and two calls, not a law of nature, but the same argument is being made again a tier higher.

[Rome Odunze](/nfl/players/rome-odunze) draws four sleeper calls and is the cheaper version of the same bet: [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) calls him [a "strong positive regression candidate,"](/opinions/7db01aa1-0806-4ca8-9354-db346b0b1f46) FantasyPros projects WR22 against a WR29 consensus rank, and Evan Tarracciano would be "thrilled to have him as a WR3" at WR29. Erickson's graded Odunze sleeper call from September 2025 scored 100 (finish: WR36). Note the direction of travel — [in March he was *lower* than consensus on Odunze](/opinions/31f8b70b-0082-4fad-b2d4-81add27c7d7d), at WR37, contingent on a [DJ Moore](/nfl/players/dj-moore) trade.

## Running back: [D'Andre Swift](/nfl/players/d-andre-swift) is the boring-value pick, with a role caveat

Twelve sleeper calls, and almost all of them say the same thing: he keeps the job and the ADP is too cheap. Jahnke's PFF piece has him at [a 5.11 ADP as "a stable low-end RB2"](/opinions/f2fa5923-1d9f-4de0-9386-54627a711d28) who holds off [Kyle Monangai](/nfl/players/kyle-monangai). Fanelli lists him at ADP 54.46, RB24, and says "there is nothing to suggest" Monangai takes over. Four pundits push further and put an RB1 finish in play.

Monangai is the disagreement: four sleeper calls (mostly injury-contingent — [Walt](/pundits/walt) frames him as [Round 2-3 production *if* Swift gets hurt](/opinions/ac712454-f116-4691-8697-99575f46e964)) against two fades, including [Walt's own downgrade](/opinions/ea523951-5291-4db1-8532-e768ae4dc24f) after a camp injury and a FantasyPros consensus rank of RB36, fifteen spots below ADP. Swift finished RB14 in 2025 and [Chris Raybon](/pundits/chris-raybon)'s ["don't even sleep on" call](/opinions/8ce155d5-152d-4837-a3d4-de50bd0df442) graded 100. The one Bears backfield deep-sleeper that graded badly was Fitzmaurice on [Roschon Johnson](/opinions/b0973377-92f1-4f9c-90f4-6c8134a092c8): RB126 against an RB52 bar, scored 0.

## Quarterback: high floor, and one specific fade

[Caleb Williams](/nfl/players/caleb-williams) finished **QB5** in 2025. Three sleeper calls this offseason and seven positional-finish claims — [Danny Parkins](/pundits/danny-parkins) has him [top five](/opinions/834645d6-bb44-4d7f-a02c-597b9f8ae484), [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd) [ranked him third among all quarterbacks](/opinions/c5c398ce-cc2c-4197-b7af-dd7f34ac6ce7), Fitzmaurice says [a high-end QB1 season is in reach](/opinions/19624197-916b-4bba-9ef3-90033d4a59ce). The dissent is priced, not directional: FantasyPros' projections see QB12 against a QB7 consensus rank — "the widest gap among startable quarterbacks" — and Fanelli calls him overpriced at ADP 83.09, QB5.

## Team defense: nothing

The site has **zero** fantasy-defense-finish calls on the Bears, and zero graded calls of that type league-wide. No estimate is available. Draft the Chicago defense on your own read.

## How much of this should you trust?

![Site-wide accuracy of fantasy calls, by position](/posts/visuals/7471e6d2-76c0-40aa-813f-83d5981ad885.png)

Across the whole graded database, sleeper calls about wide receivers average **52.2** accuracy over 134 graded calls; running back sleepers average **45.9** over 109. Tight end (60.9, 23 graded) and quarterback (63.9, 36 graded) score better on thinner samples. Positional-finish calls — "he'll be the TE1," "top-five quarterback" — are worse: **27.5** at WR, **34** at QB, **42.6** at TE, **51.3** at RB. Bust calls grade best, at 64.3 for receivers over 42 graded calls.

Timing does not save you. Sleeper calls made inside six weeks of resolution average 42 (n=26), *below* the 55 for calls made four to eight months out (n=211). Positional finishes sit between 32 and 38 at every lead time. August takes are not better-informed takes.

Among pundits with at least five graded calls of these kinds, the ones actually making Bears calls land here: Derek Brown 51.2 on 41 graded sleepers and 75.0 on 16 busts; Fitzmaurice 53.1 on 32 sleepers but 30.8 on 13 busts; Erickson 45.9 on 37 sleepers and 81.8 on 11 busts; Harmon 55.0 and 70.0; Ciely 53.3 and 40.0. Most of the volume in this preview — Fanelli, Jahnke, Walt, the unsigned FantasyPros and PFF pieces — comes from names with fewer than five graded fantasy calls. There is no record to lean on there.

![The Bears fantasy file, in four numbers](/posts/visuals/4b7a9374-516d-44a1-bdb8-b3e24ee4062e.png)

The Bears' own graded fantasy history is small: **14 graded sleeper and bust calls, 10 of them hits**. That is a good-looking number on a sample too small to mean much, and it is inflated by three separate correct fades of DJ Moore, who finished WR27.

**The practical read:** Loveland is the call the field agrees on and the one type of call (TE sleeper) that grades above average, though on 23 graded examples. Swift is cheap consensus with a real committee risk that two pundits have named. Burden is where the money is being made or lost — 13 buys, 3 fades, and a 0-for-2 graded track record on exactly this claim about exactly this player.