# New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview 2026: 21 Sleeper Calls on Tyler Shough, and Almost Nothing Graded to Back Them

*Published 2026-08-27 — MissedTakes*

The [New Orleans Saints](/nfl/teams/saints) went 6-11 in 2025 under Kellen Moore. That is not usually a team fantasy analysts spend August on. This year they did — but on exactly one player, and in one direction.

Our database holds **49 sleeper calls** and **12 bust calls** attached to Saints players, plus 24 positional-finish claims. It holds **zero** fantasy-ranking calls on a Saints player and **zero** fantasy-defense calls on the Saints — the fantasy-defense category has no graded takes anywhere on the site yet, so there is nothing to tell you about the New Orleans D/ST beyond that nobody in our corpus has made a gradable claim about it.

![Saints fantasy punditry, 2026 offseason](/posts/visuals/c2b5d504-a4bd-4f06-902c-d5114469fd5a.png)

## Quarterback: the most-hyped late-round arm in the database

[Tyler Shough](/nfl/players/tyler-shough) is the subject of 21 of the 49 sleeper calls — more than every other Saint combined. The pitch is uniform: cheap price, secure job, weak division.

[Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) put a number on it in a [PFF breakout piece](/opinions/22f8a92d-c4a2-4047-a5a9-d84ba69e932d): "Shough averaged 17.6 PPR points per game from Week 9 on last season, 12th among quarterbacks, yet he is going in the 13th round in fantasy drafts." [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) has repeated the same line in [two separate pieces](/opinions/62d79ce0-ab43-4499-94b8-0249f3248905) — "a wonderful late-round quarterback who could be a QB1 in 2026." [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) [called him](/opinions/69decfcc-1397-406d-b092-e3561729fc53) "a neat fantasy sleeper... you'll be able to get him super late." [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano) went further: ["playing in a bad division, Shough could quickly emerge into a star."](/opinions/6e1c3a45-6b4f-48e5-b865-066206820d14)

The disagreement is about ceiling, not price. Kyle Zeigler predicts flatly that "Shough finishes as a top-10 QB." [Jake Ciely](/pundits/jake-ciely) is the other pole: ["I just think he's going to be a QB two."](/opinions/79b81e15-0422-4f36-a187-5ff060d544e4) [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice), who lists Shough as a sleeper in four separate articles, still [ranks him QB21](/opinions/df4802dc-ced4-4eaf-8a5b-e7f227bc8110) and warns "I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a little bit of statistical recoil in his second season." [Rich Hribar](/pundits/rich-hribar) frames the whole case as a red-zone efficiency bet: ["if Shough remains as efficient in the red zone as he was as a rookie, then lift off."](/opinions/905da836-eaac-48fa-ac8b-7d62b476ed05)

One data point cuts against the crowd, and it is the only graded Shough fantasy call in the file: [Mike Harmon](/pundits/mike-harmon) [named him a Week 18 sleeper](/opinions/e2e20c82-d482-48e6-90f3-929d0862fc0d) last January. Shough finished QB26 against a QB12 bar. Scored 0.

## Running backs: the field is fading Etienne, not buying him

[Travis Etienne](/nfl/players/travis-etienne) draws five bust calls and one sleeper call — the most one-sided read on any Saint. Mark Ringo: "Etienne's ADP at RB19 is too rich for my blood... Who dat' want to draft Travis Etienne in 2026? Not Mark Ringo." Eric Karabell: "he is not catching six TDs again... I don't see a safe RB2 here." Evan Tarracciano and Kyle Zeigler both cite the same mechanism — [Alvin Kamara](/nfl/players/alvin-kamara) eating third-down work — and FantasyPros' consensus has him nine spots below ADP at RB20. The lone counterweight is an unsigned FantasyPros pro quote: "as the current RB19, available in the mid-third round of drafts, Etienne is a nice get."

Kamara himself is the cheap side of the same argument, with four sleeper mentions at an RB46-to-RB50 price ("upside as a pass-catcher to give owners a steady RB2 and FLEX"). Worth knowing how that call went last year: [Cynthia Frelund](/pundits/cynthia-frelund) said before 2025 that ["everyone has slept on Alvin Kamara."](/opinions/4bf7f315-5d0b-4e17-a65c-b783dd6b4a79) He finished RB53 against an RB15 bar. Scored 0, skill −200.

## Receivers: a hamstring reshuffled the room in August

[Jordyn Tyson](/nfl/players/jordyn-tyson) collected six sleeper calls before the injury news — Matt Okada had him "a strong bet to outperform his draft cost and potentially hit high-end WR2 status right out the gate," [Brandon Carney](/pundits/brandon-carney) [saw](/opinions/41101974-41e2-4ee4-99ab-6aa985d3489e) "the clearest upside case to be, like, a top fifteen, sixteen wide receiver," and Eric Patterson took the extreme position that Tyson outscores [Chris Olave](/nfl/players/chris-olave) outright, calling the WR12-to-WR33 ADP gap "way too big."

Then three downgrades landed inside four days. Raju Byfield: "Tyson will be sidelined for at least the next two months with a hamstring injury... his ECR (and ADP) is bound to fall further." [Walt](/pundits/walt) has him as ["just a late-round pick because it's unclear if he'll be 100 percent when he returns,"](/opinions/ea523951-5291-4db1-8532-e768ae4dc24f) and Derek Brown is [avoiding him](/opinions/8433c4b8-7628-4970-89dc-65da8a53fc39) "unless he slips past his ADP." The contingency bet is [Bryce Lance](/nfl/players/bryce-lance), named a sleeper twice on the reasoning that "someone will need to step up."

Olave is where the field genuinely splits. Three pundits are out at a third-round price — [Mike Florio](/pundits/mike-florio): ["I'm in on a lobby where his ADP is in the third round, top six. I'm completely out on that."](/opinions/c02f9a59-7ebe-4d97-858c-1b80a13a1297) [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) was [under consensus in March](/opinions/31f8b70b-0082-4fad-b2d4-81add27c7d7d) ("I have him at wide receiver sixteen, where he's ECR at wide receiver twelve") but by [August 25](/opinions/25a721f3-95df-4b01-b475-7c079305bf9a) called him "a reliable WR1/WR2 option." [Joe Pisapia](/pundits/joe-pisapia) lands at [WR14](/opinions/6d198ac6-d0aa-4c95-ba02-5219c8dd73ae); [LaQuan Jones](/pundits/laquan-jones) keeps him [top six](/opinions/8cbddee4-f52d-4fc5-ae8d-ddc7d30e5c8a). That is a WR6-to-WR16 spread on the same player.

## Tight end: a genuine consensus at the back of the board

[Juwan Johnson](/nfl/players/juwan-johnson) has six sleeper mentions and no dissent. Steve Krebs: "Johnson is the TE16 in ADP... should Johnson see an increase in receptions in the end zone, we are easily looking at a top-five finish." Mike Fanelli listed him twice at ADPs of 187.5 (TE23) and 153.53 (TE17), both times as "the obvious candidate to fill Tyson's role." Fitzmaurice [adds the pace argument](/opinions/05f2989b-f567-40cf-a2fe-8484bfe7ad2f): "the fast pace favored by Saints head coach and playcaller Kellen Moore is another thing working in Johnson's favor."

![Who the field is actually talking about](/posts/visuals/d2693e4b-188b-4df8-b404-e004d0381300.png)

## How much of this should you trust?

Honestly: the Saints-specific graded record is close to useless. Eight fantasy calls on this club have ever been settled — seven sleepers (average accuracy 42.9, average skill −2.4) and one bust (0, skill −200). Of the five settled sleeper calls that name an actual Saint, four scored 0: Shough, Kamara, [Ross Jackson](/pundits/ross-jackson) on [Devaughn Vele](/nfl/players/devaughn-vele) (WR90 against a WR79 bar), Erickson on [Audric Estimé](/nfl/players/audric-estime). The one hit was Harmon on Kevin Austin Jr., a Week 18 streamer who finished WR133. Both graded Saints positional-finish calls also scored 0 — Fitzmaurice had Taysom Hill TE15 (finished TE51) and Olave as a "playable wide receiver three all year long" in Week 2 of 2025 (finished WR6).

The broader record is more useful. Site-wide, sleeper calls grade best at quarterback and tight end and worst at running back.

![Sleeper-call accuracy by position, site-wide](/posts/visuals/86e7fb6a-b983-4ab8-929a-eb66ca46e53e.png)

That ordering is mildly good news for the Shough and Johnson crowds and mildly bad news for the Kamara buyers — though QB sleepers rest on only 36 graded calls, and the RB number sits on 109. Bust calls invert it: they hit best at wide receiver (64.3 across 42 graded) and worst at tight end (42.9 on seven).

Among pundits with a real sample who are making Saints calls this month, Derek Brown grades out at 52.3 accuracy on 41 graded sleepers and 77.1 on 16 busts; Fitzmaurice is 59.2 on 32 sleepers but a dismal 22.9 on 13 busts; Erickson is the reverse — 45.9 on 37 sleepers, 81.8 on 11 busts. Walt, who is behind four of the Saints calls above, has exactly one graded take on the site. Treat his stock report as reporting, not as a track record.

Finally, timing. Across every sleeper call we've graded, ones made four to eight months before resolution — where an August call sits — average 55 accuracy, better than the 42 for in-season streaming picks. Positional-finish calls at that same lead time average 32. Read the Shough sleeper tag as more reliable than "Shough finishes top-10 QB," because as a category it is. [Scoring methodology here](/methodology).