# Eagles 24, Commanders 22: 30 Calls, One Beat the Baseline

*Published 2026-09-15 — MissedTakes*

Philadelphia beat Washington 24-22 in the Week 1 opener at home. That result settled 30 pre-game calls we had tracked from 24 different pundits and shows — 19 straight-up winner picks and 11 score predictions.

The winner picks broke 13 for the Eagles, 6 for the Commanders. The majority was right. It also earned almost nothing.

![Commanders at Eagles, Week 1: the graded record](/posts/visuals/21dd2c55-5bcf-4030-b547-6af95383a54f.png)

## Being right and being useful are different things

Every one of those 13 correct Eagles picks graded out at 100 accuracy and zero skill. Skill measures a call against the naive default — here, just picking the home team — and the home team was Philadelphia. Taking the Eagles at home was the free answer. Nobody who took it added anything to what a coin-free guess already knew.

The six who took Washington are the only ones who could have gained, and none of them did. [Conor Orr](/pundits/conor-orr) and [Albert Breer](/pundits/albert-breer) both listed Commanders in their straight-up slates. [Eric Mangini](/pundits/eric-mangini) made Washington his upset alert: *"If Washington beats Philadelphia, coach gets eight and a half points."* [Henry Brown](/pundits/henry-brown) built the fullest case — A.J. Brown gone, DeVonta Smith as the lone reliable target, Washington's new edge rushers forcing "just enough stops to fuel a scoring boom of their own in a season-opening surprise." All four graded zero, at −200 skill, the worst a single winner pick can do.

So on the winner, the field was 13-6 and collectively no sharper than the default. The interesting money was in the margins.

## The margins: everyone but one was too wide

The game finished by two points. The 11 score predictions averaged a predicted margin of 11.5, and nine of the 11 called for six points or more.

![Predicted winning margin vs. the actual two points](/posts/visuals/4bd5db31-9ded-46ed-b735-5b43cccb1fc5.png)

[Dave Uram](/pundits/dave-uram) of the station's Bulldog show was the exception, and by a wide gap. He said flatly, *"I'll go tomorrow twenty one twenty Eagles"* — [a one-point Eagles win](/opinions/00b30674-12cb-41b5-9369-6b1cddbf3bad), one point off the real two-point margin. It graded 97.62 accuracy and is the only call on this entire game that beat the baseline (+7.3 skill). Uram is new to our records with a single graded call, so treat it as a good night rather than proof of anything.

[John Breech](/pundits/john-breech)'s 27-21 came next at 90.48, then [Vani Hanamirian](/pundits/vani-hanamirian) (17-10) and [Dan "Buzz" Wilson](/pundits/dan-buzz-wilson) (24-17), both 88.10 on a seven-point call. [Pete Prisco](/pundits/pete-prisco)'s CBS Sports column had 30-21 (83.33), [Mike Florio](/pundits/mike-florio) 27-14 (73.81), [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre) 27-10 on two separate shows (64.29 each). [Tony Fusco](/pundits/tony-fusco) billed Eagles 21-0 as his "100% lock pick of the week"; a shutout that finished 24-22 graded 54.76 — right side, wrong game entirely.

## David Harrison called this game four times

[David Harrison](/pundits/david-harrison) is the volume story here. Back in July he [had Washington winning a blowout](/opinions/59650712-1319-4236-be7b-8c3efa1c412e): *"the Washington mayor's gonna win this thing about 35 to I'll give them 10."* That graded zero. On September 8 he doubled down — *"This time next week, we will be talking about the Washington commanders' first win of the season having defeated the Philadelphia Eagles on the road"* — zero again. Then, [two days before kickoff](/opinions/429352ff-506a-40ec-8a47-119e673b7d5b), he softened it to a three-point game: *"I'm gonna go against the market here in my prediction. I think Commanders come out with a twenty seven twenty four win."*

That last one is worth separating out. A three-point prediction on a game decided by two is a good read of the shape of the night; it graded 47.62 on accuracy even though the wrong team was in front. Harrison had the game. He had the wrong winner, three times in three different months.

Context matters on him, though: his overall record is 153 graded calls at 62.28 accuracy, and the bulk of it is draft work — 120 mock-draft picks at 64.04 accuracy and a strong +43.24 skill. He was our Pundit of the Week for week 33 and Pundit of the Month for August. His game-picking record is, at the moment, entirely this one game.

[Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal) went the other way and twice: *"I think Philadelphia is going to smoke them"* on one show, and [Eagles -4.5 as his number-one pick](/opinions/e38c847b-41e9-4215-97a3-7ecfd51a9921) on another. Right on the winner, though Philadelphia did not smoke anybody. Rosenthal has 97 graded game picks at 58.68 accuracy and a positive +10.99 skill — he beats the default over a real sample, which is more than this particular game rewarded.

Orr's straight-up slate is the other track-record note. He's at 11.11 accuracy across 18 graded game picks, all from upset-heavy Week 1 ballots. That's one week of work, not a career — but it is a rough week.

## What it touches beyond Sunday

Nothing about a two-point September game settles a season, and the calls stacked on top of these two clubs are still open. [Jeff Kerr](/pundits/jeff-kerr) has the Eagles 12-5, a third straight NFC East title and an NFC Championship Game trip; [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd) and Rosenthal also picked Philadelphia to take the division; [John Middlekauff](/pundits/john-middlekauff) is the low man at nine or ten wins. On the other side, Harrison has Washington 10-7 and in the playoffs, Breech has them 7-10 and fourth in the division, and [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright) says they're "likely to be picking in the top 10."

One week in, a two-point road loss does not decide between those. Follow them on the [Eagles](/nfl/teams/eagles) and [Commanders](/nfl/teams/commanders) pages, and see who's actually earning their picks on the [leaderboard](/leaderboard).