# Raiders 27, Dolphins 13: Three-Quarters of the Field Was Right and Almost Nobody Earned It

*Published 2026-09-16 — MissedTakes*

Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13 in the Raiders' home opener, and we had 32 graded calls riding on it — 28 straight-up winner picks and four score predictions. That is one of the more heavily previewed games of Week 1, mostly because a lot of people wanted to say out loud how bad they thought the Dolphins were.

The field got the winner right, and it wasn't close to unanimous in the way the result was. Twenty-one of the 28 winner picks took the Raiders; seven took Miami. Three-to-one in favor of the home team, and the home team won by 14.

![Raiders-Dolphins, Week 1: the graded calls](/posts/visuals/5314b3f7-2ae3-49a8-b24c-74a2d212f8de.png)

## Being right and getting credit are not the same thing

Here is the uncomfortable part for the 21 who were right. Our skill number measures a pick against the dumbest possible strategy — always take the home team. The Raiders were home. Every one of those 21 correct picks scored a perfect 100 for accuracy and exactly zero for skill, because picking the home team is what the baseline already does for free. No one who took Las Vegas moved the needle.

That includes a lot of familiar names doing the sensible thing: [Albert Breer](/pundits/albert-breer), [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen), [Pat McAfee](/pundits/pat-mcafee), [Gilberto Manzano](/pundits/gilberto-manzano), [Mitch Goldich](/pundits/mitch-goldich), [Matt Verderame](/pundits/matt-verderame) and the rest of the Week 1 straight-up grids. [Logan Lazarczyk](/pundits/logan-lazarczyk) wrote about it three separate times — from ["Las Vegas should have no trouble defeating the Dolphins"](/opinions/53588795-f3f7-4bff-8b62-c02a6d194ff2) in late August to ["the Raiders have no excuse to lose this game on Sunday"](/opinions/3c2be39f-6afa-4429-992c-7f790d7a5dc2) two days before kickoff. All three graded as hits. All three are worth zero skill. Every call we've graded from him so far is one of those three, which is a lean, not a record.

## The score predictions did the real work

With the winner effectively free, the only way to gain ground was to name a number. Four pundits did.

![Score predictions, graded](/posts/visuals/de729c50-568e-4b78-98df-a7ba3e3491b8.png)

[John Breech](/pundits/john-breech) had the best call of the game: [Raiders 20-13](/opinions/b823d5ce-fc63-4d24-9f48-839f494b538a). Miami's 13 was exact, and his seven-point margin was the closest anyone came to the actual 14 — 83.33 accuracy and +35.87 in skill, meaning he beat the market-neutral default by a wide margin rather than riding it. Breech also called the game twice in words, including this from his Week 1 column: ["This might be the Dolphins' best chance at a win all season, but they're still going to lose by at least a touchdown."](/opinions/9da8cc61-bdc3-40fd-bd7f-c02c99fe7b00) Lose by at least a touchdown is precisely what happened.

[Pete Prisco](/pundits/pete-prisco) was next, at [Raiders 21-17](/opinions/d6f9bde0-aad0-4013-967c-c197b2e9be19) — right side, four-point margin against a 14-point result, for 76.19 accuracy and +21.59 skill.

The other two went the wrong way. [Mike Florio](/pundits/mike-florio) predicted [Dolphins 13, Raiders 10](/opinions/4b20f46e-ebc0-462f-9e7a-2ab82f91a2ea). He was one of the few to guess Miami's point total on the nose and still finished at 23.81 accuracy, because he had the wrong team scoring it. [Alain Poupart](/pundits/alain-poupart), who covers the Dolphins closely, went [Dolphins 27, Raiders 24](/opinions/6dfbbc26-d75a-4671-8e05-5595ae2a2bee) — "this is one they can take." The final was 27-13 the other direction. Both scored the same 23.81 and both lost ground against the baseline (−83.17).

## The seven who took Miami

No pile-ons here; the numbers are blunt enough. Picking a road underdog and losing costs the maximum, and all seven of these scored zero accuracy with a −200 skill mark.

- [Chad Millman](/pundits/chad-millman) twice, and with money on it: ["I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even bother with the number."](/opinions/de991e27-ec15-4c6e-ad88-b55bdaea8665) The other appearance was blunter still — ["I actually bet Miami on the money line here."](/opinions/bd767876-d060-44de-aa5a-3fc87ff4e749) Millman's Week 1 was genuinely split: the same slates that included Miami also included the Jets over the Titans, which cashed.
- [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre), also twice, with the same reasoning both times: ["I'm going Dolphins only because Kirk Cousins is starting."](/opinions/1ba44d23-c8a2-4583-87ff-18749c6585fe) Cousins started and won.
- [Conor Orr](/pundits/conor-orr), whose Week 1 grid was stacked with upsets — Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos — [took Miami](/opinions/54ae8d21-7621-4c3d-816c-e879aed9b5c2).
- [Simon Hunter](/pundits/simon-hunter), three weeks out: ["I'm hoping they win Week one because I'm gonna bet on them obviously."](/opinions/3a49bb2f-0158-479c-af87-40c52295f1aa)
- A Dolphins-fan co-host on ESPN Houston's John and Lance, who expected Miami to win about four games and counted this as one of them.

## Does this extend anything?

Breech is our clearest riser of the group: 68.53 accuracy across 32 graded calls, with his score predictions (59.84 across 15) carrying more of the weight than his straight-up picks (57.14 across 16). Small body of work so far, but this was his best single result. Prisco's score predictions sit at 65.72 accuracy over 15 graded, so Raiders 21-17 is in character rather than a fluke.

Florio's misfire is a blip, not a trend: his overall accuracy is 85.65, dragged down only in this category (61.75 over 15 score calls). Poupart is the sharper contrast — 100 accuracy on 85 roster-spot calls about the Dolphins, and this was the first score prediction we've graded from him. He knows the roster; the scoreboard is a different job.

The hardest number to look past belongs to Orr, who is at 11.11 accuracy over 18 graded winner picks. Every upset has to come from somewhere, but 18 calls is enough to be a pattern rather than variance.

## What it touches beyond Sunday

The Dolphins entered the season with a wide range of projections on our books, from Douglas Clawson's 0-17 at CBS Sports to [Alain Poupart's best case of 7-10](/opinions/56eb247d-1fef-48da-8d17-84bd020e2f9e), with [Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal) taking the over on 3.5 because ["it's hard to lose 15 games."](/opinions/f0cf005d-c1fc-4fe0-a702-a92cd7eb66c2) The winless calls got one week of cover; the ESPN Houston co-host who banked this game as one of Miami's four just lost one of his four. On the other side, Jared Feinberg reaffirmed eight wins for Las Vegas the day after — "I'm sticking with it after today's win" — against [John Breech's 5-12](/opinions/71f0c6e7-72a6-474d-8838-2889291a9b1e) and [Nick Wright's 3-14](/opinions/d726dad7-b84e-421c-8274-380142c4ff2e). Seventeen games to sort that out.

Full call histories: [Las Vegas Raiders](/nfl/teams/raiders), [Miami Dolphins](/nfl/teams/dolphins), and the [leaderboard](/leaderboard).