# Washington Commanders 2026: The Coverage Report — Heavily Covered, and 0-for-10 on the Division

*Published 2026-09-08 — MissedTakes*

Washington is not a blind spot. Across the league, our database holds 754 takes touching the Commanders, 316 of them graded — sixth-most graded of the 32 clubs, behind the Bills (527), Chiefs (403), Rams (380), Eagles (376) and Patriots (353). The league median is about 222 graded takes per club. Washington sits roughly 40 percent above it, and takes about 4 percent of every graded team-attached take on the site.

![Washington's coverage footprint](/posts/visuals/ea5cd613-bf4d-458f-85a9-ea514e5e05b5.png)

Volume is not quality. The Commanders' collective accuracy across those 316 graded calls is 58.5, with an average skill delta of +8.19 — barely better than a naive baseline, and far off what pundits managed on, say, Seattle (74.9 accuracy, +56.45 skill) or New England (71.0, +45.32). The [team's 2025 season](/nfl/teams/commanders) is the reason: 5-12, no playoffs, a year after 12-5.

## The team-level calls were a wipeout

The clearest finding in the file is also the simplest. Ten graded Division Winners calls name Washington. All ten scored 0. Average skill delta: **-156.6** — the worst mark of any claim type attached to this club by a wide margin.

Eight of the ten came before or during 2025. [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd) in August 2025: "Commanders Class of the NFC East, not Close." [Aaron Schatz](/pundits/aaron-schatz), presenting FTN's almanac in July, gave Washington "a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia." [Seth Rollins](/pundits/seth-rollins), guest-hosting in July: "I think they're the class of the NFC East." [TJ Jefferson](/pundits/tj-jefferson) in September: "I got the Washington football team winning this division." [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright) has three of the ten by himself, including one after Week 1: "I had them winning their division, so I didn't have a huge concern." Two more, from [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) and [Marcus Mosher](/pundits/marcus-mosher), were 2024-season calls that also came in wrong. In each case the naive pick — last season's division winner — beat the pundit.

The rest of the team-level record runs the same way. Playoff Picks: 14 graded, 14.3 average accuracy. Season Win Totals: 8 graded, 17.5. Seven pundits put a 2025 win number on Washington; the lowest was 8, the highest 11, and the team won 5. The field missed by 4.8 wins collectively, the fifth-largest collective win-total miss of the 2025 season among team-seasons with five or more calls.

![2025 win-total calls on Washington vs. what happened](/posts/visuals/984c71bf-81d6-42c8-a5f9-80650ca6977e.png)

The one bright spot at volume is the draft: 122 graded Mock Draft Picks tied to Washington, 56.0 average accuracy but +40.02 average skill — pundits beat the naive baseline there more consistently than anywhere else on this club.

## The cutdown: 77 graded, and all the misses point one way

The 53-man deadline is the series' news hook, and Washington's roster-spot file is real but partly unsettled: 195 Roster Spot Calls on the Commanders, of which 77 are graded and 118 are still pending. The graded set averages 92.2 accuracy, which sounds spectacular until you look at what the grader rewards. Most of those hits carry a skill delta of 0, because the naive baseline — "he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again" — already said yes. Naming Sam Cosmi, Daron Payne or Mike Sainristil to the 53 is free.

The scoring, and the interest, live in the cut calls. Every graded Washington miss so far is a pundit calling for a veteran to be released or stashed, and the player surviving instead.

- **Van Jefferson**, three separate misses. [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) wrote twice in late August that ["Jefferson appears unlikely to make the roster at this point"](/opinions/47566b48-8024-4960-b25c-11c03fe43543); [Carter Bahns](/pundits/carter-bahns) put him on a [CBS list of veterans at risk](/opinions/94f49c83-2307-4f25-b10c-b1cba9df5dbc): "He could carve out that same role with the Commanders, but it could be difficult considering the team's wide receiver depth." He made the 53. Three calls, 0 accuracy, -200 skill each.
- **Dyami Brown**, **Javontae Jean-Baptiste** and **Antonio Hamilton**, all from [David Harrison](/pundits/david-harrison)'s [initial 53-man projection](/opinions/1d5b2565-5531-47ac-bff8-ccb9b23a980a) of August 28. Harrison released Brown and Deatrich Wise on paper, left Jean-Baptiste off, and had Hamilton among the corners who "come back on the practice squad." All three stuck. Three misses at -200.

The reverse — a pundit putting a player on the roster the baseline said would not be there — is where the points were. Three calls have landed that way:

- [Logan Paulsen](/pundits/logan-paulsen), back on May 1, on undrafted LSU receiver **Chris Hilton**: "could he make it as a practice squad guy? Sure. Because the athletic upside there. But I just think the road is is long for him for sure." [Graded 100, skill +200](/opinions/8f6b6d6a-20c2-4735-abad-7eefbbea0dcb).
- Harrison on kicker **Drew Stevens**, named among his "first three names on the initial 53 man roster." 100, +200.
- [Philip Hughes](/pundits/philip-hughes) on center **Matt Gulbin**, listed in [his nine-man offensive line](/opinions/4ec7adba-dd12-4caf-9bb1-f1a343cee65a) on August 23. 100, +200.

With 118 roster-spot calls on this team still ungraded, that ledger will move. Treat the six graded misses and three above-baseline hits as an early read, not a verdict.

## Who has a record here

Two pundits have enough graded Washington takes to talk about at all.

| Pundit | Graded takes (WAS) | Accuracy | Avg skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Harrison | 87 | 50.0 | +29.14 |
| Philip Hughes | 51 | 100.0 | +27.45 |
| Nick Wright | 12 | 27.7 | -55.35 |
| Gregg Rosenthal | 11 | 73.7 | +12.19 |
| Colin Cowherd | 10 | 30.2 | -24.75 |

Everyone else on the club clears five graded takes at most, which is not a record — it's a handful.

Hughes's line needs the asterisk stated plainly. All 51 of his graded takes are Roster Spot Calls, all 51 hit, and [his site-wide MissedTakes Score is still only 14.29](/pundits/philip-hughes) on provisional confidence from two articles — because a perfect 53-man projection made up of returning players mostly ties the baseline rather than beating it. Harrison's 87 graded Washington takes span mock drafts and roster projections; his roster-spot subset alone is 18 graded, 83.3 accuracy, **-11.11** average skill, dragged under water by the three cut calls above. His overall site record is stronger — third on the [leaderboard](/leaderboard) at 35.41 with 149 graded takes, and August's Pundit of the Month by MissedTakes Score.

By outlet, [Locked On Commanders](/outlets) carries the bulk of the local volume (305 takes, 88 graded, 50.6 accuracy, +31.23 skill), Sports Illustrated's 51 graded are Hughes's roster board, and The Herd's 46 graded Washington takes come in at 37.6 accuracy and -27.32 skill.

The summary for Washington is not that nobody watched. It's that plenty of people watched, agreed the Commanders were the class of the NFC East, and got graded 0-for-10 on it — while the calls that actually earned points were about a kicker, a backup center and an undrafted receiver.