# San Francisco 49ers 2026 Outlook: The Field Likes Them Again, But Nobody Will Say They Win the West

*Published 2026-09-04 — MissedTakes*

The 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 and made the playoffs — and did not win the NFC West. That combination shapes almost everything pundits are saying about San Francisco this preseason. Kyle Shanahan's team is treated as a playoff club, praised in win-total terms, and then quietly slotted behind Seattle and the Rams in the division. Meanwhile the punditry volume on this roster is wildly uneven: 182 graded-or-pending takes about the receiver room, and one about a kicker.

Here is where the site's record stands, unit by unit.

![49ers punditry by position group](/posts/visuals/d8c92818-90af-46d7-8cb3-372eb2028383.png)

## Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy is the whole conversation, and it is almost entirely a fantasy-price conversation rather than a football one. Nobody in our database is arguing there's a competition. [Brian Peacock](/pundits/brian-peacock) laid out a 53-man projection keeping three quarterbacks — "Brock Purdy, Mac Jones, and Curtis Rourke" — while [Eric Crocker](/pundits/eric-crocker-2) would keep two: "you got Purdy, you got Jones. That should be enough." That is the extent of the backup debate: how many arms, not who starts.

The volume is on Purdy's price. [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) says "Purdy will again be a QB1 that goes far too late in drafts in 2026." [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke)'s PFF entry has him at an ADP of 9.04 and calls him "one of several undervalued quarterbacks available later in drafts." [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) is more restrained — "consider him a low-end QB1" — and there is dissent: Michael Moore lists Purdy as a bust at QB11, arguing "Purdy would need a lot of things to go right, including everyone staying healthy, to get close to a QB11 fantasy finish."

Worth noting how these claim types actually grade. Site-wide, Positional Finishes average **34.4** accuracy across 270 graded calls — the "he'll finish top-12 at his position" genre is one of the least reliable things pundits do. Brown's own positional-finish record is 12.85 accuracy over 19 graded calls, against 78.04 on 21 mock-draft picks. The same man is much better at one job than the other.

Depth-chart calls on this quarterback room will almost certainly grade well, because they always do: 415 graded depth-chart calls site-wide average **93.5** accuracy, with an average skill delta of just 1.82. Saying Purdy starts is correct and worth nearly nothing. [Albert Breer](/pundits/albert-breer) and [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) both scored 100 on Purdy depth-chart calls last season, both with a skill delta of 0.

## The receiver room

This is where the punditry lives — 182 takes, 25 graded, 63.2 average accuracy. And nearly all of the 2026 volume is about one rookie.

De'Zhaun Stribling, the No. 33 pick, has become the consensus late-round dart. Brown: "Stribling is a great late-round selection in fantasy football drafts in 2026." Mike Fanelli: "While it was once considered a long shot, Stribling could end up being the 49ers' best wide receiver as a rookie." Lawrence Iacona goes furthest — "Draft him before your league catches on." A CBS piece attributed to Zachary Pereles projects him as an immediate starter "with Ricky Pearsall out for the season."

There is a real disagreement underneath the hype, and it is a depth-chart one. FantasyPros' staff account has Deebo Samuel Sr. winning "the WR2 job behind Mike Evans, ahead of rookie De'Zhaun Stribling," while Kurt Blakeway has Stribling as "the 49ers' No. 2 WR come Week 1." A FantasyPros roundtable on Stribling splits three ways: "Two analysts lean bust or skeptical-neutral, while the third leans boom."

On Mike Evans, [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) is honest about the shape of the bet: "Evans enters his first season with San Francisco with more risk than ever before, but the touchdown upside remains extremely enticing." Brown calls him "one of the best values on the board for fantasy season with WR1 upside."

Sleeper calls grade at **52.6** accuracy site-wide over 308 graded takes — barely better than a coin flip on whether the guy became startable. Brown's sleeper record specifically: 52.25 accuracy over 41 graded calls. When ten people tell you the same rookie is a league-winner, the base rate says about half of those calls land.

## The running back room

The second-loudest room, and the one where the field is most openly negative. Christian McCaffrey is the most-named 49er in fantasy bust calls. Fanelli: "the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history." Billy Pinder: "The issue isn't talent; it's the price and risk profile." A FantasyPros entry: "McCaffrey can still be great, but the age, current physical concerns, and first-round cost create too many ways for the investment to disappoint." Erickson lists him under "Running Backs Busts."

The counter comes from Joshua Poniatowski, who has him third overall: "I'm not passing on a player with this much league-winning upside because I am scared of what might happen. McCaffrey should be the 1.03, only behind Gibbs and Bijan."

Bust calls are one of the better-graded genres here — 84 graded, **58.3** average accuracy, average skill delta 27.93, the highest of the fantasy types. Brown's bust record is 77.08 accuracy over 16 graded calls, his best-scoring category by skill.

Behind McCaffrey, the field converged fast on rookie Kaelon Black. Jahnke: "Black appears to have the lead in the competition for the 49ers' backup running back job." [Walt](/pundits/walt): "Black played ahead of James... it appears as though Black has the inside edge to be the RB2." Fitzmaurice agrees. Fullback punditry amounts to one graded take across the whole database (12.5 accuracy) — not enough to say anything about.

## The tight ends

George Kittle punditry is a straight fight over whether the injury discount is a bargain. Jahnke's PFF piece lists him as a "league winner" at an ADP of 7.11. Evan Tarracciano: "Kittle will be back on the field well before anticipated... I'll gobble up the discount for as long as it lasts." Ryan Kirksey calls him "a steal at his TE9 fantasy football ADP."

Against that: Richard Janvrin — "with Kittle's extensive injuries, I can't trust him all too much this season" — and Walt, flatly: "No one should be drafting Kittle in the single-digit rounds." Kyle Zeigler says Kittle "is easier to fade at TE9 than his name value and history might suggest."

Jake Tonges is the stash. Steve Krebs: "Tonges certainly could end this season as a major sleeper at the tight end position," while noting "Kittle looks to be shaping up as the Week 1 starter." Walt has put a number on Tonges: 38 catches, 340 receiving yards, five total touchdowns. Player Season Numbers grade at **35.8** accuracy site-wide, so treat that projection accordingly.

Tight end takes about this team have graded at 48.5 accuracy across 11 calls — the weakest skill delta (7.37) of any 49ers position group with a real sample.

## The offensive line

Thin on evaluation, decent on job projection. Parker Hurley has rookie fourth-rounder Carver Willis as a Week 1 starter: "Willis is the one who protected Brock Purdy when the starters played in the preseason. He should start in Week 1." Hurley later notes Willis "appears to have a firm lead at left guard, but the team also just added Jarrett Patterson via a trade." Grant Cohn goes further out: "I expect Willis will finish the season as the starting left guard, because the current starter is Robert Jones, and he's a veteran stopgap."

Peacock's line is Trent Williams at left tackle, Willis penciled in at left guard, Dominick Puni at right guard, Colton McKivitz at right tackle. The one genuine projection with a stated bar comes from PFF's Gordon McGuinness on Puni: he "has a chance to establish himself as a top-15 guard before heading into a contract year in 2027."

Williams draws Hall of Fame talk rather than 2026 analysis — Bryan DeArdo: "Williams' impressive longevity has all but cemented his spot in Canton"; Bill Barnwell calls him an "easy first-ballot selection." Pro Bowl and All-Pro calls are the single worst-grading type on this site: 65 graded, **0.0** average accuracy, average skill delta -98.22. Take the Canton confidence at that discount.

Tackle takes about San Francisco have graded well — 79.7 accuracy over 20 calls — but that is mostly mock-draft picks, not line evaluation. Interior line takes are essentially nonexistent: three graded guard calls at 28 accuracy, and nothing checkable at center.

## The defensive line

Small sample, unusually strong scores: 23 defensive end takes on this team, seven graded, **94.0** average accuracy and a 135.72 skill delta — inflated by three correct 2022 Nick Bosa Defensive Player of the Year calls (100 accuracy, 200 skill each, from [Dave Wannstedt](/pundits/dave-wannstedt), [Greg Jennings](/pundits/greg-jennings) and [Charles Davis](/pundits/charles-davis)).

For 2026, Cohn expects Bosa on the field: "Assuming his patellar knee tendinitis doesn't flare up again, he will start and play lots of snaps against the Rams even if he's not quite ready, because the 49ers are desperate." He also has Keion White starting at end and moving inside on third down. Hurley calls Bosa, Mykel Williams and Romello Height "locks to make the team." Brent Sobleski: "As long as Bosa stays on the field, he'll likely find himself among the NFL Defensive Player of the Year conversation" — a claim graded as an Award Pick, a type that averages **21.2** accuracy site-wide.

Inside, the only projection with a measurable bar is Jason Aponte on Osa Odighizuwa: "I chose him as the guy who ends up with the most sacks, which would be the last time a defensive tackle led the 49ers in sacks was..." Peacock has Odighizuwa and CJ West starting, with fourth-round rookie Gracen Halton "for sure gonna make the roster."

## The secondary

Mostly roster bookkeeping, one genuinely bold call. Jose Sanchez on rookie fourth-rounder Ephesians Prysock: "They might have something with Prysock. He could be their second-best starting outside cornerback. Maybe even their best." Henry Cheal has the opposite read — Prysock as "a good rotational addition, as Deommodore Lenoir and Upton Stout will likely be ahead of him." Hurley splits the difference: "A year on the bench behind Renardo Green could help."

[Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks) named Stout to his NFL.com All-Breakout Team on defense: "Look for Upton Stout to have plenty of opportunities to rush off the edge and he's good enough to make it happen." [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano) picked Green as the 49ers' breakout: "That rush should be better this season, and accordingly, the 25-year-old Green could be right back on track."

The graded record here is unflattering: six cornerback takes at 46.0 accuracy, six safety takes at 47.5. [Richard Sherman](/pundits/richard-sherman) predicted last year that Marques Sigle "will start" — Sigle finished fourth in defensive snaps at safety, grading 75 accuracy but a skill delta of -16.67, worse than assuming a rookie sits.

## Special teams

Essentially nothing. The database holds two kicker takes about this team, one of them graded — a 2025 mock-draft pick at 4.82 accuracy — and one 2026 line: Peacock's roster note that the specialists are Eddy Pineiro, the punter and the long snapper. No punter takes, no long-snapper takes, no return-game calls we can grade. That is an honest blank, not a gap in our reporting.

## The rookie class

Ground truth on the 2026 haul: WR De'Zhaun Stribling (No. 33), DE Romello Height (70), RB Kaelon Black (90), DT Gracen Halton (107), OL Carver Willis (127), CB Ephesians Prysock (139), OLB Jaden Dugger (154), OL Enrique Cruz Jr. (179).

Four of the eight have drawn real punditry, and it clusters exactly where you'd expect: Stribling (dozens of sleeper and depth-chart calls), Black (near-unanimous as the RB2), Willis (a projected Week 1 starter) and Prysock (disputed). Cohn has Dugger "opening the season as the starting strong-side linebacker," and predicted after a Titans joint practice that Dugger "could win a starting job immediately." Halton gets one roster-lock note. Cruz got a preseason projection from Crocker back in May: "Seems like someone who may be let go initially and brought back on practice squad." There is nothing checkable about Height's 2026 role beyond Mike Clay's May projection of "0.9 sacks... on 106 snaps."

Mock-draft accuracy on this club's 2026 picks was mixed. [JP Acosta](/pundits/jp-acosta) called pick 33 for R Mason Thomas — 73.84, off by seven slots. Peacock's third-round edge call graded 100, his safety call 95.76. [Ayrton Ostley](/pundits/ayrton-ostley) had a safety at 133 who went 228: 1.63 accuracy.

## The overall outlook

Here is the interesting number. Our win-total consensus tool returns nothing for 2026 — no team-season has enough settled calls yet, because the season hasn't happened. What we do have is the 2026 claim record and the 2025 grading, and the contrast is instructive.

Last year the field was *right* about how many games San Francisco would win and *wrong* about what it meant. Aaron Schatz projected 11.2 wins (84 accuracy, 158 skill). Brady Quinn and Chris Brockman both said 12 (100 accuracy, 190 skill each). Sherman and Cynthia Frelund said 11 (80 accuracy). [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright) said seven and graded 0. But every single 2025 NFC West pick for San Francisco — Quinn, [Jonas Knox](/pundits/jonas-knox) twice, Brockman, [John Middlekauff](/pundits/john-middlekauff), Schatz, [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre), Chosen Anderson — graded **0**. Eleven graded division-winner takes on this team, 9.1 average accuracy. Playoff picks, by contrast: 23 graded, **91.3** accuracy, 138.13 average skill delta.

This year the field has adjusted by lowering the ceiling rather than switching horses. Moe Moton projects 9-8. Wright has them third at "eight and nine." McIntyre: "the Niners might win eight or nine." Middlekauff, in May, "pretty comfortable saying they'll be ten and seven" — and in August, "I got the Niners winning the NFC West." [Simon Hunter](/pundits/simon-hunter) is the loudest bull: "I just cannot see them not getting the ten or eleven wins," backed with a plus-300 division bet. [Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal) took the over on 10.5 in May. Sobleski thinks Shanahan "can push his team beyond last season's 12-5 finish."

On the playoffs, agreement is near-total and the framing is uniform: third in the division, in the field anyway. [Danny Parkins](/pundits/danny-parkins): "It gets interesting though at number three with the San Francisco 49ers... because I have them making the playoffs." Sherman: "I feel really good about the 49ers making it." A CBS tier list puts them in "B Tier," expecting them "in the thick of the NFC West race." Gene Chamberlain calls the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers "near-locks."

Conference-level punditry on San Francisco is genuinely thin — three conference-champion takes and three Super Bowl picks total, with the two graded ones from each type scoring 0. Power rankings are thinner still: six takes, five graded, one of them from 2026 (Matt Verderame's preseason tiers, with the Rams and Seahawks on top and "the Bills and 49ers next").

The honest summary: the field expects a good, not dominant, 49ers season, and has learned to stop calling them division champions. Given that division winners grade at 27.4 accuracy site-wide and playoff berths at 59.5, hedging into the wild-card slot is the better-scoring bet even when it reads like cowardice.

*Scoring definitions are on the [methodology page](/methodology). Full records live on the [leaderboard](/leaderboard).*