# Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Outlook: The Field Missed by Six Wins Last Year and Is Backing Them Again

*Published 2026-09-04 — MissedTakes*

The [Kansas City Chiefs](/nfl/teams/chiefs) went 6-11 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2009 in the site's records. Before that: 15-2, a Super Bowl appearance, and three titles in the Andy Reid–Patrick Mahomes era (2019, 2022, 2023). Punditry did not see the collapse coming. Thirteen graded win-total calls on the 2025 Chiefs sit in our database; the lowest of them was 10 wins, the highest 15, and the field missed by 6.3 wins — the largest collective whiff on any team-season we track.

That is the backdrop for a 2026 preview in which most of the same voices have Kansas City back in January.

![The 2025 Chiefs, as the field saw them](/posts/visuals/575becc4-b28d-45b5-a380-6b3cf6719770.png)

Punditry on this team is also wildly lopsided by position. Here is where the 494 Chiefs-subject takes in our database actually land.

![Where Chiefs punditry actually goes](/posts/visuals/ccc46526-5a6a-4aaa-8762-3f9342ca8de9.png)

## Quarterbacks

Sixty-six Chiefs quarterback takes, and almost all of them are one claim: Mahomes plays Week 1. The takes describe his injury inconsistently — "December knee surgery" in one, "torn ACL" in another, an Achilles in a third — but the conclusion is unanimous. [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) in March: ["He's starting week one. Man. Hi. Hi. Hi. He's starting week one."](/opinions/b9bc45b2-48bf-4805-b36c-8ae30aeafb59) [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd), [Mike Florio](/pundits/mike-florio), [John Middlekauff](/pundits/john-middlekauff), [Nick Shook](/pundits/nick-shook) and an unsigned FOX Sports report all say the same thing.

There is no genuine competition — the disagreement is about the September script. [Chris Brockman](/pundits/chris-brockman) went furthest in May: ["Even if Mahomes is ready to start week one, the Chiefs to start Justin Fields for all of September."](/opinions/2307f474-6a3d-405e-b048-7b023ffda1be) [Tom Pelissero](/pundits/tom-pelissero) framed Fields as the contingency only: "if he can't, or if he's limited in the early going, we know exactly who it's gonna be."

Behind them, seventh-round rookie Garrett Nussmeier has generated a small roster-math argument. [Chris Clark](/pundits/chris-clark) says Kansas City "[has to keep three QBs at this point because Nussmeier shown enough that I think he would get claimed](/opinions/0980b588-d56b-463d-b7b1-678059726844)." Joshua Schulman agrees a rival would claim him, but says Reid would "probably feel more confident starting Fields over Nussmeier."

The scoring caveat: of 16 graded Chiefs QB takes, average accuracy is 36.2, though the average skill delta is +34.4 — these are usually claims a naive guess also gets wrong.

## The receiver room

The largest and worst-scoring pile of Chiefs punditry: 133 takes, 49 graded, average accuracy 45.9 and a skill delta of **-8.33**, the only Chiefs position group where the field has done worse than baseline.

The 2026 consensus is a fade. [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) on Rashee Rice at WR12: ["Now, Rice has an ADP of WR12 (30th overall). I'm fleeing at that price."](/opinions/5f7af3f5-0362-4233-9e62-c9b21e220401) [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) — third on the site's [leaderboard](/leaderboard) with a 35.62 MissedTakes Score over 114 graded takes — was blunter: "the guy that I'm avoiding like the plague is where she rice," citing Kenneth Walker III's arrival eating into the screen game. Josh Shepardson, Evan Tarracciano, Scott Pianowski and [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) all pile on; [Simon Hunter](/pundits/simon-hunter) simply said ["fade rice."](/opinions/43ba38bc-0c70-4486-b557-45e7be618e87)

The dissent comes from [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) (22.08 score, 143 graded), who lists Rice under "Early-Round Values." Jahnke, meanwhile, likes Xavier Worthy — "A healthy shoulder and increased opportunity could position Worthy to lead Kansas City in receiving this season" — while Shepardson is avoiding both. Fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen is the split decision: PFF's Nic Bodiford calls him "a candidate to take over as the Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver in-season"; Fitzmaurice says he "appears to be no better than No. 4 on the team's WR depth chart."

## The running backs

Ninety-seven takes, and the graded ones score worst of any Chiefs group: 35.2 accuracy, **-36.5** skill delta on 22 graded calls. Read the 2026 chorus with that in mind, because it is a chorus. Fitzmaurice: "Walker should get a chance to be a workhorse for Andy Reid's Chiefs," and elsewhere he picks Walker as the league-winning back who ends Kansas City's 1,000-yard-rusher drought. [Mike Harmon](/pundits/mike-harmon) has him "handling his own dirty work at the goal line." Jahnke twice flags top-five upside at a 2.06 ADP. Derek Brown thinks he'll be "the engine of the KC offense."

Behind him, fifth-rounder Emmett Johnson is the near-unanimous backup — Jahnke, Fitzmaurice ("Kansas City waived Demercado Sunday, so Johnson is clearly the top backup") and Schulman all agree — with Jahnke adding that Brashard Smith may not survive if the team keeps three.

No fullback takes exist.

## Tight ends

Thirty-three takes, essentially all about Travis Kelce, and the tone has shifted from production to valediction. An unsigned CBS piece expects him to clear "700 receiving yards with a few touchdowns"; another says he is "likely playing his final season." Derek Brown is the most bullish: "he's still gonna be a top twelve tight end. He's still gonna be probably a top seven guy." [Matt Verderame](/pundits/matt-verderame) ranked the tight end room third among Chiefs position groups and called Kelce "still top five in the league."

The one graded item worth flagging: [Chris Welsh](/pundits/chris-welsh) called Kelce a sleeper before 2025 and scored 100 accuracy with a +200 skill delta when Kelce finished TE5. [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd)'s one-touchdown projection for Kelce scored 0 (he got five).

## Offensive line

All the punditry is at tackle — 48 takes there, three at guard, one at center. Left tackle is settled: Josh Simmons "has a firm grasp as Patrick Mahomes' blind side protector." Right tackle is the actual question. [Albert Breer](/pundits/albert-breer) from camp: undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson's ["meteoric rise up the depth chart has created real competition... it wouldn't be a shock to anyone here if he wrested the job from Moore."](/opinions/119375be-df3e-4041-bd6d-16d70aaef5ee) Kevin Patra had Benson "poised to swipe the starting right tackle job." Joshua Brisco and Schulman both landed on Jaylon Moore instead after Benson's rough preseason.

Interior line: nothing checkable beyond Schulman noting a hip injury to "projected right guard Trey Smith" and a CBS grade calling trade addition Joshua Ezeudu "very much a backup." Graded Chiefs tackle takes score well (82.1 accuracy on 23 graded); the guard and center samples — one graded take apiece — are too small to mean anything.

## Defensive line

Thirteen edge takes, 22 interior. Chris Jones is the whole story: [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright) is picking him for Defensive Player of the Year, and Verderame says "Chris Jones is still a top, what, three defensive tackle on football if he's not even the best." Middlekauff's February call that Jones "could be a trade candidate" graded at 100 accuracy — because he stayed, which is exactly what the naive baseline predicted, so it earned 0 skill.

The rest is roster churn: Emmanuel Ogbah named a likely cut by two CBS pieces, Felix Anudike-Uzomah judged safe by [JC Pearson](/pundits/jc-pearson) and Darren Smith, and rookie R Mason Thomas with, per Henry McKenna, "a direct path to a starting spot."

## Secondary

Forty-four corner takes, eleven safety takes, and the corner ones are close to unanimous. First-round pick Mansoor Delane starts: "if Montserrat Delaine isn't a 17 game starter, something's gone terribly wrong" (Brisco); "plug and play starter" (Middlekauff); "No. 1 corner" (multiple). Verderame goes further — ["I think he's going to be a star right away. I think he will be a Pro Bowl level player immediately."](/opinions/f91234b8-1a39-47ee-897e-1b0696d940d4) Schulman called the CB2 battle for Nohl Williams over Kristian Fulton in early August, and Fulton has since been floated as a cut candidate.

Safety is nearly empty: PFF projects Alohi Gilman as a starter, Pearson thinks Jaden Hicks "played his way in," and that is it. Of the 11 safety takes on file, seven are mock-draft picks about players Kansas City never took.

## Special teams

One take. Chris Clark: "Butker needs a clean game, but I don't think there's any chance that he's doing anything other than kicking for Kansas City this year." The only other special-teams claims in the database are Clark predicting long snapper James Winchester returns (graded 100 accuracy, 0 skill — the naive call) and his worry that returner Andrew Armstrong gets cut "just because they don't have another returner." No punter takes. No graded return-game projections.

## The rookie class

Ground truth first: CB Mansoor Delane (1-6, LSU), DT Peter Woods (1-29, Clemson), DE R Mason Thomas (2-40, Oklahoma), CB Jadon Canady (4-109, Oregon), RB Emmett Johnson (5-161, Nebraska), WR Cyrus Allen (5-176, Cincinnati), QB Garrett Nussmeier (7-249, LSU).

Two mockers nailed Woods at 29 exactly — the KC Laboratory show and Locked On Chiefs both scored 100 on that pick. Nobody in our database put Delane at six. [Matty Lane](/pundits/matty-lane) named Woods the class's most likely All-Pro: "if you tell me one person from this chief's draft class goes on to be the best at his position in the NFL, Peter Woods, I think, is very clearly the top guy." Brisco says Kansas City's class "has an outrageous ceiling but won't replicate the 2022 class's depth." Schulman's summary: the Chiefs are "leaning heavily on rookies in 2026." Delane, Johnson and Allen all carry projected roles; Canady is projected to lose the slot job to Christian Roland-Wallace.

## Overall outlook

There is no 2026 win-total consensus row on the site yet — nothing has resolved, so nothing has been graded. What exists is a spread of live calls: Nick Wright at 12-5 (repeatedly, and picking Kansas City to reclaim the AFC West), Moe Moton at 10-7 and the No. 6 seed, Cowherd around 10, Warren Sharp citing a 10.4-win projection, and [Nate Tice](/pundits/nate-tice) and Hayden Winks both at 9 — with Denver and the Chargers ahead of Kansas City on their AFC West boards.

Playoffs are close to a lock in the punditry: [Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal), Cowherd, [Chris Broussard](/pundits/chris-broussard), [TJ Jefferson](/pundits/tj-jefferson), Rich Eisen, [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre) and Wright all have them in, several of them while placing the Chiefs second or third in the division. Rosenthal is the contrarian on the division itself: "I didn't want to just answer like everyone else and go Broncos. I went the Kansas City Chiefs."

Now the uncomfortable part.

![Season-level Chiefs calls, graded](/posts/visuals/55fd3430-47a7-47d8-b486-6317d62ff659.png)

Every graded Chiefs division-winner pick from 2025 scored 0 — Eisen, Brockman, Wright, [Kyle Brandt](/pundits/kyle-brandt), [Brady Quinn](/pundits/brady-quinn), [Richard Sherman](/pundits/richard-sherman), Jefferson, Hunter, all of them, and all against a naive baseline that also said Kansas City. Every 2025 Chiefs conference-champion pick scored 0 too; New England and Seattle won the conferences. Wright's career division-winner line is 12.5 accuracy and a -45.46 MissedTakes Score over 14 graded calls; Cowherd's is 5.88 over 53. Rosenthal is 0 for 3 there, though his win totals (48.5 accuracy, +8.04 over 18) are among his better categories, and he was the site's [Pundit of the Week for accuracy](/leaderboard) in 2026-W33 at 93.1.

None of that makes the 2026 calls wrong. It does mean the field's Chiefs forecasts have been, for two years running, the least profitable thing it produces — and this year's are numerically tamer. The most aggressive number on file is 12 wins; last preseason it was 15. See the [scoring methodology](/methodology) for how these get graded when the season resolves.