# Atlanta Falcons 2026 Outlook: A Quarterback Argument Nobody Can Settle

*Published 2026-09-03 — MissedTakes*

The Falcons have finished 8-9 in each of the last two seasons and have not made the playoffs since 2017. They enter 2026 with a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, a general manager in Ian Cunningham, and a quarterback room that pundits cannot agree on from one week to the next.

That last part shows up in the data. Of the 264 Falcons takes the site holds, 73 are about quarterbacks and 67 about wide receivers — 53% of all Atlanta punditry aimed at two position groups. Six of the roster's units have essentially nothing checkable said about them at all.

![Where Falcons punditry actually goes](/posts/visuals/2f09baef-2761-474c-bcd2-e84c7c1bdab1.png)

## Quarterbacks

This is where the volume is, and the takes contradict each other by the week.

Through August, the majority read had [Tua Tagovailoa](/nfl/players/tua-tagovailoa) as the incumbent by default. Matt Zenitz wrote on August 23 that "free agent signee Tua Tagovailoa remains the favorite to win Atlanta's starting QB job." Zachary Pereles, on August 17, was blunter: Tagovailoa is "the de-facto QB1 in a pretty dismal quarterback competition" with [Michael Penix Jr.](/nfl/players/michael-penix-jr) still rehabbing a knee. Michael David Smith agreed that "realistically, Tua Tagovailoa will almost certainly be the starter when the season begins."

Then Penix got cleared for 11-on-11 work and the room flipped. Carter Bahns said on August 24 that Penix "figures to make a run at the job... he has about three weeks to make up ground and potentially leap past his fellow southpaw." [Chris Brockman](/pundits/chris-brockman) went further the same day: "this is Michael Penick's gig. If he shows anything in the final preseason game, the Falcon should start him week one." [Geoff Schwartz](/pundits/geoff-schwartz), on August 28: "it feels very clear that he will probably start week one, even though he might not be ready."

By September 2, [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) had swung back — "I seriously, like, Tua, he he starts week one" — while Veejay Huskey, two days earlier, declared the opposite: "I think Tua's time has passed. He's a backup now."

Behind them, the depth calls are cleaner. Scott Kennedy reported Atlanta is "expected to keep three quarterbacks: Tagovailoa, Penix, and undrafted free agent rookie Jack Strand," which leaves [Cooper Rush](/nfl/players/cooper-rush) — a Kennedy depth-chart call as the No. 2 as recently as August 12 — squeezed. Carter Bahns: "Rush remains among the NFL's most respected backup quarterbacks but might have to sign elsewhere." Benjamin Allbright reported on August 28 that Tagovailoa was among "multiple QBs on the move in the next few weeks."

None of the 2026 quarterback takes are graded yet. What is graded is the site's Falcons depth-chart record generally: 11 graded calls, 95.5 average accuracy but only +6.1 average skill — pundits get Atlanta's pecking order right, and the naive guess mostly got it right too. That is the honest frame for a competition this many people are hedging.

## The receiver room

[Drake London](/nfl/players/drake-london) is the second-most-discussed subject on the roster and the most divisive. [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) is buying: "I absolutely understand the concern regarding the Falcons' quarterback situation, but that won't stop me from drafting Drake London. London is a bet on talent that I'll continue to make," and he has London as "a locked-in WR1." [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) agrees — "London profiles as a top-tier fantasy WR1 once again." Pereles put him on a 2026 All-Breakout Team projecting first-time All-Pro honors. Greg Auman expects "double-digit touchdowns for the first time in 2026" under Stefanski.

The fade side is just as loud. FantasyPros twice: "He can have another strong season without delivering top-seven value, making him a player I would fade in the second round," and "At this price, the risk outweighs the reward, making him an easy fade for me."

Behind London, the WR2 argument has two candidates. [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) and Kevin Patra both have [Jahan Dotson](/nfl/players/jahan-dotson) — Jahnke: "Dotson not only firmly in a starting role but also facing minimal competition for playing time." Mike Fanelli has the rookie: "Atlanta has no better option than the rookie as their No. 2 wide receiver." Jahnke, meanwhile, is out on [Zachariah Branch](/nfl/players/zachariah-branch) as a fantasy asset — "his upside appears limited" — while Gordon McGuinness predicts Branch finishes "fourth on this team in targets."

Worth flagging: Falcons receiver takes are the worst-graded position group on this roster. Twenty-nine graded WR calls average **22.7 accuracy** and a skill delta of **-55.0**. Pundits talk about Atlanta's receivers more than any unit but quarterback, and they have been wrong about them more than any unit at all.

## The running backs

The one thing the field agrees on. [Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks): "Given Bijan's ability to do more while surrounded by a less talented squad, he just barely edges out Jahmyr as the NFL's best running back right now." [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano), [JP Acosta](/pundits/jp-acosta), [Jeff Cavanaugh](/pundits/jeff-cavanaugh) and Bryan DeArdo all say a version of the same thing. Douglas Clawson has the boldest number: [Bijan Robinson](/nfl/players/bijan-robinson) as "the fourth player all-time with 1,000+ rush yards and 1,000+ rec yards in a season."

The graded history on "Bijan is the best" is instructive. [Pat Gustavson](/pundits/pat-gustavson)'s January call scored 75 accuracy but **-16.67 skill**: Robinson finished fourth in rushing yards when the naive guess (his prior finish, third) was closer. Acosta's All-Pro version of the same take graded **0** with -100 skill. [Damonza Byrd](/pundits/damonza-byrd)'s rushing-touchdown-title pick graded 0 — Robinson finished 20th in that category. The only big winner was [Ryan Wormeli](/pundits/ryan-wormeli)'s May 2025 sleeper call, 100 accuracy and +200 skill.

The dissent is one voice: [Simon Hunter](/pundits/simon-hunter), September 1 — "I have not drafted in a single league, Robinson. I just, I don't want Atlanta's running back... And he is the second pick over all." Behind him, Vacchiano and Jordan Dajani both have [Brian Robinson](/nfl/players/brian-robinson) as the backup; Jeremy Munter likes him as a late-round touchdown vulture.

## The tight ends

Thirty-six takes, all effectively about one player, and the split is total. [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) is the loudest bull on [Kyle Pitts](/nfl/players/kyle-pitts), citing the coach: "the tight ends in Stefanski's Cleveland offenses averaged 164.3 targets over the last three seasons," and projecting Pitts as "Atlanta's No. 2 target earner this season." Fanelli agrees. FantasyPros has him TE5 by projection against a TE8 consensus.

Against that: Erickson lists Pitts among his tight end busts, Eric Karabell fades him, Richard Janvrin expects his target share to slip, Jahnke thinks top-eight "would be more difficult," and [Brandon Carney](/pundits/brandon-carney) offers the least hedged take in the file — "He's average. Shut up. Don't draft Kyle Pitts. This is the last time I'm gonna warn you guys."

Nine graded TE takes on this roster: 72.2 accuracy, **-22.9 skill**. Right more often than not, but not better than the obvious guess.

## The offensive line

Nearly nothing, which is normal. McGuinness noted Kaleb McGary's retirement "leaving a significant hole along the offensive line" and expects [Jawaan Taylor](/nfl/players/jawaan-taylor) to be "a solid replacement." PFF named [Matthew Bergeron](/nfl/players/matthew-bergeron) Atlanta's breakout candidate as he enters his rookie-contract walk year. The only graded interior-line call on file is [Ross Tucker](/pundits/ross-tucker)'s 2023 read that Bergeron would start at left guard as a rookie: 100 accuracy, +16.67 skill.

The rest of the "OT" file is 2027 mock drafts already sending Atlanta an offensive tackle — [Mike Renner](/pundits/mike-renner) at No. 12 and [Justin Melo](/pundits/justin-melo) at No. 6, both taking Jordan Seaton. Nobody has made a gradable claim about this line's 2026 performance.

## The defensive line

The pass rush is the story pundits are actually chasing, and it is an injury story. Liam Dreesen, writing with [James Pearce Jr.](/nfl/players/james-pearce-jr) suspended eight games and Jalon Walker out for the season: [Brandon Dorlus](/nfl/players/brandon-dorlus) "now becomes the cornerstone of the pass rush after a semi-breakout season last year." Bahns has [Samson Ebukam](/nfl/players/samson-ebukam) and [Cameron Thomas](/nfl/players/cameron-thomas) "next in line," and [Bradley Locker](/pundits/bradley-locker) expects Ebukam to see "a lion's share of starting snaps" off a one-year deal. Bahns also pegs newly acquired [Gervon Dexter Sr.](/nfl/players/gervon-dexter-sr) as "a rotational player than a starter."

Graded history here is thin and unkind: five graded DE takes at **16.8 accuracy**, six DT takes at 61.1. Most of that file is mock drafts, not analysis — including [Chris Rose](/pundits/chris-rose)'s -200 skill call sending Malcolm Koonce to Atlanta in 2025.

## The secondary

Four takes total, three graded, and two of them are mock draft picks. [Rob Rang](/pundits/rob-rang) named [Cobee Bryant](/nfl/players/cobee-bryant) a second-year breakout — "the trash-talking 6-foot-1, 185-pounder punches above his weight class as a tackler." There are zero takes on file about any Falcons safety. Not thin: absent.

## Special teams

Nothing. No graded or pending take about a Falcons kicker, punter, long snapper or return man exists in the database. One sentence is all it deserves.

## The rookie class

[Ground truth on Atlanta's 2026 haul](/nfl): CB Avieon Terrell (No. 48), WR Zachariah Branch (No. 79), LB Kendal Daniels (No. 134), DT Anterio Thompson (No. 208), LB Harold Perkins Jr. (No. 215), G Ethan Onianwa (No. 231).

Punditry has found two of the six. Branch is covered above. Garrett Chapman says Daniels "has surged past veteran Christian Harris and is essentially assured of the starting linebacker job." [Josh Edwards](/pundits/josh-edwards) notes Perkins, "although listed second team on the depth chart... is already earning repetitions with the first team." Terrell, Thompson and Onianwa have drawn nothing.

The pre-draft mocks graded better than usual on the top pick: [Jaime Eisner](/pundits/jaime-eisner)'s April Falcons-specific mock had CB Brandon Cisse at 48 and scored **84.09** (Cisse went 52). The same mock's IDL pick graded 35.36 and its two late-round names went undrafted entirely, scoring 0.

## The overall outlook

The site holds no 2026 win-total consensus yet — the season hasn't graded — but the individual numbers are on file, and they scatter badly. [Chad Millman](/pundits/chad-millman) in March: "Atlanta seven and a half, I'm gonna go with the over." Eisen in April: "Falcon seven point five. That's over. Over." Bucky Brooks in August: "I think they fall seven to ten." Byrd is at seven — "Bijan is about to see the prime years of his career wasted on a seven-win football team." Moe Moton is the low man at 5-12. [Richard Sherman](/pundits/richard-sherman) has them 2-2 out of the gate.

On the division, [Mike Florio](/pundits/mike-florio) makes the conditional case: "If they can get something/anything out of the quarterback position, they could win the division in 2026." Renner put money on it in May at plus-450 — "the NFC South right now is a complete crapshoot... I think this is a team that has a very good shot of winning the South." Eisen agreed: "Falcons in the South? Yeah."

Here is the part that should temper all of it. **All nine graded Falcons division-winner calls scored 0.** [Jonas Knox](/pundits/jonas-knox), [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd), Millman, [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre), Brockman, [Daniel DiBerardinis](/pundits/daniel-diberardinis) — every one of them has picked Atlanta to win the NFC South at some point and every one has been wrong. Brockman's December 2024 version, made while Atlanta sat in first place, graded 0 with **-117 skill**. The team's eight graded playoff-berth calls also all scored 0, at an average **-200 skill delta** — the worst mark for any claim type on this roster.

The win-total pickers have done better precisely because they aimed lower. Four separate over-7.5 calls on 2025 Atlanta — Nick Wright twice, [Danny Parkins](/pundits/danny-parkins), McIntyre — each graded 100 accuracy for a team that won eight. [Brady Quinn](/pundits/brady-quinn)'s 10-7 wild-card projection graded 60 with -70 skill.

![Graded Falcons calls by claim type](/posts/visuals/23877cda-5369-4aac-b001-bdcbd7992228.png)

The pattern is consistent enough to be a rule: pundits who put the Falcons at eight wins get paid, and pundits who put them in January do not. Nothing about the quarterback situation described above suggests 2026 is the year that changes.

*Scores explained on the [methodology page](/methodology). Full records on the [leaderboard](/leaderboard).*