# New York Giants 2026 Outlook: Everyone Has an Opinion on Jaxson Dart and Almost None on the Rest

*Published 2026-09-04 — MissedTakes*

The Giants come into 2026 off a 4-13 season, which followed 3-14, which followed 6-11. John Harbaugh is the new head coach, Joe Schoen is still the general manager, and the last playoff appearance in the site's records is 2022. That is the backdrop for a preseason in which pundits have said a great deal about one quarterback, quite a lot about a tight end who has never been a full-time starter, and essentially nothing about several units.

Here is the shape of it. Across every graded Giants take in the database, the volume clusters exactly where you would expect:

![Giants takes by position group](/posts/visuals/e7291870-d3f2-4217-a84f-bf16c35061b0.png)

Note what that table is really measuring: mock drafts and depth-chart calls are 224 of the 419 team takes, and mock drafts alone account for 93 of the graded ones. Punditry about this team is mostly punditry about who they will draft and who will start, not about how good anyone is.

## Quarterbacks

There is no competition, and nobody is pretending there is. [Patricia Traina](/pundits/patricia-traina) has the room at two — [Jaxson Dart](/nfl/players/jaxson-dart) and [Jameis Winston](/nfl/players/jameis-winston) — in her [53-man projection](/opinions/8bb1a183-b45b-44db-8a61-23bdd2238a6b), and Michael Haney wrote in August that Brandon Allen "is currently the team's third quarterback, behind Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston." Traina's [read on Allen](/opinions/bd9180cd-0e37-4985-a024-6d8c75ff7866) was blunter: "going back to the spring, he has looked simply awful."

The argument is entirely about how good Dart is, and it is genuinely split. On the bull side, [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) says "Dart is positioned to be a strong QB1 again this year with upside," and an unsigned FantasyPros projection piece has him as "a top-seven fantasy quarterback, with 310 projected points (18.3 per game)" against a QB12 consensus. On the bear side, [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) is [fading him outright](/opinions/24a65adf-bde1-430f-94a9-687089411232) — "I'm worried about Jaxson Dart... I'm drafting around Dart" — worried the running invites injury, and a FantasyPros Featured Pro entry adds, "I have Dart down at QB15, and if those rushing touchdowns come back to earth, I think he has a tough time paying off a borderline QB1 price." Fitzmaurice also doubts the coordinator fit: "I'm not feeling all that great about Dart taking a big leap forward in year two with Matt Nagy as the Giants offensive coordinator."

None of this is graded yet. What *is* graded is last year's version of the same conversation, and it went well for the field: a run of depth-chart calls saying the rookie would take the job — [Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal), [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen), Jonas Knox, Jourdan Rodrigue, Mike Florio, [Jamie Erdahl](/pundits/jamie-erdahl) — all scored 100 against a 91.67 baseline. Depth-chart calls on this team grade at 94.0 accuracy on 32 graded takes, but the skill delta is +3.91, which is the honest version of that: they are usually right, and usually right in a way a naive guess would also have been.

## Wide receivers

The most-discussed room after quarterback, at 124 takes and 30 graded. Two threads.

First, [Malik Nabers](/nfl/players/malik-nabers) coming back from knee surgery, and the field cannot agree. [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) lists him under "Wide Receivers Busts." A FantasyPros pro says he is "coming off of two surgeries to repair his torn ACL... currently coming off the board at 29th overall (WR12), and that simply is way too hefty of a price." Ryan Kirksey goes the other way: "If he is available in the fourth round of drafts, I'm jumping on him at that cost."

Second, rookie [Malachi Fields](/nfl/players/malachi-fields), who has quietly become a consensus starter. [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) reads preseason usage as "Fields has won the starting X job, with Beckham as his backup"; Fitzmaurice, Bradley Locker and Eric Edholm all landed in the same place. [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano) has the top three as Nabers, Darnell Mooney and Fields.

Then there is the [Odell Beckham Jr.](/nfl/players/odell-beckham-jr) subplot, which produced a rare direct contradiction. [Chris Brockman](/pundits/chris-brockman) and [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) both said [Beckham will be the Giants' second-best pass catcher](/opinions/dd7a4eb4-4bc0-4b41-813e-2f17b74151e3). Vacchiano, the same week, had him "probably the fourth or fifth receiver on the roster." Veejay Huskey, days before cutdowns, said flatly he "will not make the 53-man roster." All three are pending.

## Running backs

Thirteen graded takes, and the graded skill delta is *negative* (-3.6) on 70.5 accuracy — the only Giants position group where pundits have collectively done worse than the naive baseline. The 2026 talk is a three-way muddle. Jahnke: "Skattebo is still the favorite to lead the Giants in carries," but "Harris' presence in New York makes it difficult to draft Skattebo at his ADP," and "It wouldn't be surprising if Tracy drops to fourth on the depth chart, even if he's healthy." Mike Fanelli is out entirely: "the Giants have done everything possible to crush his fantasy value... I'm not drafting anyone in this backfield." Traina keeps four — Harris, [Cam Skattebo](/nfl/players/cam-skattebo), Tracy, Singletary — and argues cutting Tracy "after a bad couple of games would be shortsighted." No fullback takes in the database.

## Tight ends

Forty-one takes, effectively all about one man. [Isaiah Likely](/nfl/players/isaiah-likely) is the site's most-projected Giant: Derek Brown ("a solid TE1 this season and is worth a late-round dart"), Matt Okada ("the perfect recipe for a breakout"), Jahnke ("legitimate elite fantasy upside"), Ryan Kirksey ("a chance he could push for 80 receptions and 900 yards"), Steve Krebs ("65-70 receptions or more, while accumulating 700 yards"). One dissent, from FantasyPros' consensus rankings, which have him falling six spots to No. 132 on the theory that "the market is paying more for tight ends than the consensus thinks the position returns." Nothing here is graded yet, which is worth saying plainly: this is the single loudest Giants consensus of the offseason and it currently has a zero-take track record behind it.

## Offensive line

Thin, and mostly roster bookkeeping. Traina and Haney both have John Michael Schmitz locked in at center — "firmly entrenched as the starter." Jared Dubin has "veteran Jon Runyan and 2026 10th overall pick [Francis Mauigoa](/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa) entrenched at the team's starting guard spots," which matches what [Daniel Jeremiah](/pundits/daniel-jeremiah) said on draft night — Mauigoa will "probably play them at guard right away because you got your two tackles" — and what Rosenthal said the same weekend.

The graded record here is bad and small: 7 graded tackle takes at 47.1 accuracy, 3 at center at 48.6, and exactly one graded guard take, at 11.0. The one older line call worth flagging is [Ross Tucker](/pundits/ross-tucker) in 2023 predicting Evan Neal would make "an Andrew Thomas–like improvement at right tackle" — graded 83.33 accuracy but a skill delta of -16.67, i.e. worse than assuming nothing changed. Neal is now, per Bradley Locker, a player whose "veteran depth on the interior may spell the end of Neal's unceremonious time with the franchise."

## Defensive line

Very thin: 13 defensive tackle takes with 3 graded (50.9 accuracy), 4 defensive end takes with 1 graded (0.0). The substance is about replacing Dexter Lawrence. Traina: "Leading the way for the Giants' revamped run defense up front is 10-year veteran D.J. Reader, who takes over as the nose guard/defensive tackle for Lawrence." Haney has second-year [Darius Alexander](/nfl/players/darius-alexander) as the 3-tech; Alex House projects "five or more sacks"; [Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks) put Alexander on his All-Breakout Team.

The edge rushers sit under linebacker in the site's data, and that is where the volume is — 59 takes, 33 graded, 80.3 accuracy, +27.94 skill, the best-scoring Giants position group. [Abdul Carter](/nfl/players/abdul-carter) is a near-unanimous breakout pick (Brooks: "this is easy to say"; Vacchiano: "Double digits in sacks wouldn't be a shock"). [Lance Zierlein](/pundits/lance-zierlein) said in April that Kayvon Thibodeaux "is gonna be gone. I don't even think he gets another contract"; Traina's 53 still has him on it. Both pending.

## Secondary

Cornerback grades out as the Giants' most accurate room — 87.4 on 11 graded — but almost all of that is mock-draft credit, not evaluation. The 2026 calls are sparse: Gordon McGuinness has Paulson Adebo "locked into one of the team's starting cornerback spots" despite a 57.9 coverage grade, and says of rookie [Colton Hood](/nfl/players/colton-hood), "it would not be surprising if he wins a starting job from Day 1." Rosenthal made [Greg Newsome II](/nfl/players/greg-newsome-ii) "the favorite" in the outside battle. At safety, 22 takes — 17 of them are mock-draft calls sending Caleb Downs to New York (more on that below). The only actual 2026 safety opinion is McGuinness on Tyler Nubin: "don't be surprised if Nubin generates more buzz."

## Special teams

Three takes, all from one article. Traina's 53 lists kicker Dominic Zvada, punter Jordan Stout and long snapper Ben Mann, and notes Zvada "has already been declared the winner of the kicking battle by head coach John Harbaugh." No return-game takes are in the database. That is the whole file.

## The rookie class

Ground truth first. The Giants' 2026 haul: Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State) at No. 5, Francis Mauigoa (OT, Miami) at No. 10, Colton Hood (CB, Tennessee) at 37, Malachi Fields (WR, Notre Dame) at 74, then Bobby Jamison-Travis, J.C. Davis and Jack Kelly in the sixth.

Now the punditry, which is the best story on this page. **Seventeen separate mock-draft calls in the database sent Caleb Downs to the Giants.** Mel Kiper, Field Yates (twice), Bucky Brooks, Matt Miller, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, Rich Eisen, Gregg Rosenthal, Lance Zierlein (twice), David Harrison (twice), Keith Sanchez, Jaime Eisner, Lance Moore and one podcast host. Three more sent them Mansoor Delane. Exactly **one** call in the database put Arvell Reese at No. 5 to New York: [Ross Jackson](/pundits/ross-jackson), on February 23, buried in a Saints seven-round mock. It graded 100 accuracy, +42.73 skill.

The scoring quirk is worth understanding. Downs went 11th and Delane 6th, so the Downs and Delane mocks still scored 77–96 apiece — mock accuracy grades how close the *player* went to the predicted slot, not whether the team-player pairing was right. Overall, Giants mock picks grade 77.4 accuracy with +35.3 skill across 93 graded calls, and Giants "team draft slot" calls grade 96.0 on four. The field knew exactly where New York would pick. It had no idea who they would take.

![Who the field mocked to the Giants — and who they actually took](/posts/visuals/7bafee68-7ff4-41df-96d9-17b2343b5461.png)

Rookie roles, so far: Cowherd called Mauigoa, Fields and Reese "all first day STARTERS" back in June; JP Acosta expects Reese inside; Traina has Reese as a projected starter next to Tremaine Edmunds. Sam Panayotovich bet Reese to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +800, and Brooks picked him too — "let's come out of left field."

## The overall outlook

The 2026 win-total consensus table is empty because the season has not been played, so all we have is the spread of individual calls, and it is unusually wide:

- [Danny Parkins](/pundits/danny-parkins): 11 wins, Giants win the NFC East, "I don't know if you heard, but I have the Giants winning the NFC East."
- [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd): over 7.5, "to say this crappy team is going to double their win total takes courage," Giants as a wild card, "if Jackson Dart can stay out of the blue tent, I think it's a playoff team."
- Mitchell Eisenstein: "eight or nine games." A Rich Eisen Show caller: 8-9.
- Vacchiano: "around six to eight games."
- [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright): 7-10, third in the East. Moe Moton: 7-10. SportsLine's model: 7.0 wins, 13.7% playoff odds.
- Conor Orr: 6-11, including a 1-6 start. Jacob Robinson: 6-11, "I'll take the under in Year 1."

That is a 5-win range on the same roster. The history behind it is not encouraging. Giants season-win-total takes grade 57.1 accuracy with a **-7.86** skill delta on 14 graded calls: worse than a naive projection. Giants playoff picks grade **0.0 accuracy** across seven graded calls, skill -179.43 — every graded playoff call on this team has been wrong. The single graded division-winner take is Cowherd's from February 2026 ("I have the New York giants winning the Division"), which scored 0.

Last year's field on the 2025 Giants: 13 calls, ranging from Cowherd's 3 to a Rich Eisen Show caller's 10, against an actual 4 wins. Cowherd (3) and John Middlekauff (4) were closest; most of the field sat at 6.

The pundits repeating the bullish call this year have mixed records at exactly this kind of claim. Parkins grades 61.18 on season win totals and 0.0 on his two graded division-winner picks; Cowherd is 43.33 on win totals, 33.7 on playoff picks and 5.88 on division winners across 53 graded; Wright, the pessimist here, is 43.63 and 40.71. Nobody in this argument has earned the benefit of the doubt.

![How Giants team-level punditry has actually graded](/posts/visuals/8940fab3-8db1-4c97-b8a5-94203bbcf7c4.png)

The honest summary: the field is confident about who starts and has no idea how many games this team wins. On past form, that is the correct distribution of confidence.