# Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 Outlook: The Field Undersold Them Once and Isn't Doing It Again

*Published 2026-09-04 — MissedTakes*

The [Jacksonville Jaguars](/nfl/teams/jaguars) went 13-4 in 2025 and made the playoffs, a year after going 4-13. That whiplash is the backdrop for everything pundits are saying about them now, and it shows up in the grading: the site holds 11 graded season win-total calls on Jacksonville, and they average **21.8** accuracy. The field's division and playoff calls on the same team average 85.7 and 92.9. Punditry got the Jaguars' *direction* right and their *ceiling* badly wrong.

Here's where the talk actually clusters.

![Where Jaguars punditry actually goes](/posts/visuals/798bdadd-4f4a-411b-905a-1a87fe07df47.png)

## Quarterbacks

Thirty-six graded-or-pending takes name a Jaguars quarterback, and only six of them have resolved. Nobody is predicting a competition for the starting job. What they are predicting is a tier jump for Trevor Lawrence.

[Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) has said it three times since early August: "with Coen's help, the splendidly long-haired quarterback has [finally become a top-10 quarterback](/opinions/32b2dd10-f0fc-404a-829c-0482e5c0d90d)," with "high-end QB1 potential" at a low-end QB1 price. [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright)'s 2026 quarterback tiers put Lawrence among eight players he called ["clearly top-10 quarterbacks"](/opinions/7d421403-7900-4341-9916-fee8f128bb11). PFF's [Nathan Jahnke](/pundits/nathan-jahnke) has repeated that Lawrence ["should be a top-10 option again, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10"](/opinions/7ac1d40f-02ab-4a2d-98cc-02c3f17ec84b). [Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks) went further and put Lawrence on an [award ballot](/opinions/10c3797b-f9e0-41ca-a2a3-5d765a242a79) — his words: "let's be a homer let's go with trevor lawrence."

Two caveats worth printing. Fitzmaurice's Jacksonville-specific record is six graded takes at **23.6** accuracy and a skill delta of -14.5 — a thin, negative sample. Jahnke has exactly one graded take on the site overall, so his record here is provisional and means nothing yet.

The backup job is the only genuinely unsettled question, and the reporting on it moved fast. On Aug. 12 John Shipley wrote that "Mullens is the QB2, and that will remain unchanged moving forward"; on Aug. 16 that Mullens "is not being pushed in terms of the backup quarterback job by any means"; on Aug. 30, after the Quinn Ewers trade, that Ewers is locked into the No. 2 role and Mullens is "likely... released"; and on Sept. 3 that his "gut guess is that Nick Mullens is the backup quarterback in some fashion when the Cleveland Browns visit on Sept. 13." Shipley has no graded record on the site, so none of that is scored — it's just the clearest illustration available that the QB2 depth chart is a moving target.

## Wide receivers

Eighty-one takes, more than any other Jaguars position group, and they are almost all one argument: Parker Washington up, Brian Thomas Jr. down.

[Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) is the loudest on both ends. On Washington: ["I think Parker Washington's going to operate as Jacksonville's Amon Ross St. Brown"](/opinions/d6e49275-e4cf-4d86-917d-1d29252c1d0a), a "monster breakout season." On Thomas, in the same appearance: "Hell no. I am not attracting him anywhere." Brown's graded record supports the second call more than the first — his fantasy bust calls score **77.1** accuracy over 16 graded with a +108.3 skill delta, while his sleeper calls sit at 52.3 over 41.

[Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) calls Thomas ["the ultimate landmine"](/opinions/f966bbb4-dc4f-4e1a-a55a-1b939d93b32b), citing chemistry with Lawrence and the early cornerback schedule; Fitzmaurice says the offense ["doesn't seem like an ecosystem that sets up well for a Brian Thomas Jr. bounce-back"](/opinions/62860d77-aa66-45ad-b86e-bfb812baae5a). Jahnke's PFF piece takes the other side: ["improved chemistry with Lawrence and some positive touchdown regression"](/opinions/17239a05-cdcb-46f1-ba50-52f506969a2f) makes the rebound worth a seventh-round bet. Jahnke also has Washington and Thomas entering the season as the top two receivers, which is a quieter claim than most of what surrounds it.

Graded history on Jaguars receivers is not encouraging for anyone: 11 resolved calls, **34.3** average accuracy.

## Running backs

The room's takes (68 of them) run through Bhayshul Tuten. Steve Krebs: Tuten "will more than likely get the largest share of attempts." [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen): "I believe in Basheul Tooten as your... First running back." Eric Moody projects him to lead the group in touches, with Chris Rodriguez Jr. in short yardage and LeQuint Allen on passing downs.

The dissent is about price, not role. Jahnke's PFF piece flags ["serious risk"](/opinions/f5994d2b-5e48-4375-8657-16c094977c9c) at a low-end RB2 cost given "some kind of three-man rotation," and Evan Tarracciano is "skeptical that limited touches and a loss of goal-line work" turn into the big year others envision. Eleven graded Jaguars running back takes average 66.6 accuracy — the healthiest number among the skill positions here.

No takes on fullbacks. None exist in the database.

## Tight ends

Seventeen takes, three graded, and they split cleanly on Brenton Strange. Lawrence Iacona sees "consistent TE1 production"; Derek Brown says that ["as the depth chart currently stands, he's likely the fourth or fifth option in the target hierarchy"](/opinions/f2017238-d9ff-471e-8192-9db0ecaf8882); Wolf Trelles-Heard calls him a bust at TE19 because "there are too many mouths to feed."

The one useful piece of graded history is [Chris Raybon](/pundits/chris-raybon)'s [2025 sleeper call](/opinions/8ce155d5-152d-4837-a3d4-de50bd0df442) on Strange, which scored 100 accuracy and a +200 skill delta — Strange finished TE23 against a TE30 bar. That is a low bar cleared, not a star turn, which is roughly the argument Brown is making now.

Jahnke has both 2026 rookies, Nate Boerkircher and Tanner Koziol, "second and third on the depth chart" already.

## Offensive line

Twelve guard takes, three at center, and **zero** on tackles. The graded record consists of two 2025 mock-draft picks by [Kyle Crabbs](/pundits/kyle-crabbs) — Tate Ratledge at 70 (he went 57, 56.9 accuracy) and Seth McLaughlin at 194 (undrafted, 0).

Everything current is depth-chart projection, mostly from Shipley: Anton Harrison at left tackle, Cole Van Lanen at right tackle, Ezra Cleveland at guard, Robert Hainsey at center, and rookie Emmanuel Pregnon "set to take over at the left guard spot in the starting offense in Week 1 and beyond." Jared Dubin sees "a decent chance Faalele ends up as Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard" instead. PFF's guard ranking has Cleveland as "a reliable presence" at left guard. Nobody has said anything checkable about the tackles.

## Defensive line

Sixteen defensive tackle takes and 11 at defensive end. The DT number is inflated by 2025 mock drafts: seven different pundits, including [Daniel Jeremiah](/pundits/daniel-jeremiah), [Mel Kiper](/pundits/mel-kiper) and [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd), had Mason Graham to Jacksonville at No. 5, and that group is why Jaguars DT calls grade out at 83.8 accuracy. It measures mock-draft consensus, not analysis of this defensive line.

The four graded defensive end takes all score 0 — they are the 2022 defensive rookie of the year ballots for Travon Walker cast by [Mike Martz](/pundits/mike-martz), [Marvin Lewis](/pundits/marvin-lewis), [Ronde Barber](/pundits/ronde-barber) and [Robert Smith](/pundits/robert-smith). Sauce Gardner won.

For 2026 there is Shipley's pecking order (DaVon Hamilton, then Arik Armstead and Matt Dickerson), his call that B.J. Green won the DE3 job, and his stated "#take: BJ Green finishes the year with six sacks." Derek Brown separately backs the Jaguars defense as a top fantasy unit.

## Secondary

Forty-one cornerback takes, two ever on safeties. This is the Travis Hunter room in the database's eyes.

The 2025 grading is the story. In Week 9 of last season, Erickson and Fitzmaurice ranked Hunter WR29 and WR30 in a positional-finish segment; he finished first at his position by the site's grading, and both calls scored 0. [Tom Strachan](/pundits/tom-strachan)'s [preseason sleeper call](/opinions/c42eacc5-eb10-4103-a94d-50545a487cbb) on Hunter went the other way: 100 accuracy, +200 skill. Overall, Jaguars cornerback takes grade at **24.6** accuracy across 14 resolved calls — the worst mark of any position group here.

The current takes are about deployment. Matt Severance: "the apparent plan for this season is for Hunter to be a full-time cornerback and the No. 3 receiver." [Mike Renner](/pundits/mike-renner) said in February they'd "put him at one spot this next year, and it looks like it's gonna be DB." Shipley expects him to be the No. 1 corner in Week 1. Douglas Clawson's bold prediction is the outlier: 1,000-plus receiving yards *and* four interceptions.

At safety, there is one live take — Shipley calling Antonio Johnson the No. 1 safety — and one graded 2025 mock pick. That's the whole file.

## Special teams

Two takes, both late-round fantasy endorsements of kicker Cam Little from Steve Krebs and Evan Tarracciano. No punter takes, no long snapper takes. The nearest thing to a return-game call is a CBS roster projection that Jacksonville "would be hard-pressed to justify using a roster spot on Abdullah solely as a returner," pegging Ameer Abdullah for the practice squad. That is the honest extent of it.

## The rookie class

Jacksonville made ten picks in 2026, none in the first round: TE Nate Boerkircher (56), DT Albert Regis (81), G Emmanuel Pregnon (88), S Jalen Huskey (100), DE Wesley Williams (119), TE Tanner Koziol (164), WR Josh Cameron (191), WR CJ Williams (203), DE Zach Durfee (233), LB Parker Hughes (240).

Not one graded mock draft in the database sent any of those ten players to Jacksonville. Keith Sanchez had WR Chris Bell at 56 (Bell went 94; 19.3 accuracy); Jaime Eisner had DT Christen Miller at 56 (Miller went 42; 54.5). Boerkircher's only mock-draft mention put him at 148 to Kansas City — 1.9 accuracy.

Post-draft, three rookies have drawn takes: Pregnon as the Week 1 left guard, Boerkircher and Koziol as the No. 2 and No. 3 tight ends, and Regis, whom Shipley pointedly ranks fifth among interior linemen in the pecking order. Huskey appears once, in passing, as a competitor for the third safety job.

## The outlook

The site's win-total consensus table has no 2026 team-seasons yet, so what follows is individual calls, all pending.

They are uniformly bullish. Nick Wright: "I have him going 10 and seven, but that's an over," plus a playoff berth. Rich Eisen has walked a 13-4 follow-up season. [Simon Hunter](/pundits/simon-hunter) has Jacksonville regressing "but still... ten wins." [Jason McIntyre](/pundits/jason-mcintyre) and [JP Acosta](/pundits/jp-acosta) both took the over on 8.5, Acosta calling that number "really selling this Jaguars team short." Moe Moton is the low man at 9-8. On the division, Wright ("I would have the Colts and third and the Jags all the way up"), Eisen, [Chris Brockman](/pundits/chris-brockman), Walt, [Brandon Carney](/pundits/brandon-carney) and [Pat Gustavson](/pundits/pat-gustavson) all have Jacksonville winning the AFC South. Pete Prisco has them beating Dallas in Super Bowl LXI.

![Graded accuracy on team-level Jaguars claims](/posts/visuals/f86269dd-1a9b-4f7f-95ab-a547caa20388.png)

The history says to weight those differently. Division and playoff calls on Jacksonville have graded very well — Eisen's Jaguars record is 10 graded takes at 93.2 accuracy — because the 2025 team both won the AFC South and made the playoffs, and picking against the prior-year division champ paid. Win-total calls have graded terribly, because the numbers pundits named (8, 9, 10, 11) all sat well below 13.

Note also that conference-title calls on this team are 0-for-2: Acosta's "Duval, baby. Jags Super Bowl" and one other AFC pick, both graded 0. Prisco's is the third swing at it.

The unanimity is the thing to watch. Last year the field liked Jacksonville and still undershot by several wins. This year it likes them more, from a 13-win baseline, with the number set at 8.5. One of those two positions is going to be wrong.