# New Orleans Saints 2026 Outlook: The League's Favorite Sleeper, Graded

*Published 2026-09-04 — MissedTakes*

The [New Orleans Saints](/nfl/teams/saints) went 6-11 in 2025 and 5-12 in 2024, and the site's season data shows no playoff berth since 2020. Kellen Moore is the head coach, Mickey Loomis is still the general manager, and the punditry pouring in this summer treats all of that as prologue: this is one of the most popular sleeper teams in the database.

That enthusiasm is worth checking against the record. It also arrives unevenly. Of the graded Saints takes on file, 185 of them are mock-draft picks — the club's punditry is overwhelmingly a draft-season artifact, and most of what has been said about the 2026 roster is still pending.

![Where Saints punditry actually goes](/posts/visuals/d6bfd89b-2997-44ea-b90d-733a90419515.png)

## Quarterbacks

The consensus is that there is no competition at the top. [Pat Fitzmaurice](/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice) has repeated the same line all preseason — Tyler Shough "now enters the 2026 season as the Saints' undisputed starter" — attaching it to [late-round quarterback advice](/opinions/293346b3-f877-4ed4-8751-7c09612b2ae8) as recently as September 1. Doug Joubert put it more bluntly on August 21: "there is no question that Shough is the starting QB," with the competition only for the backup job.

That backup job is where the disagreement lives, and it is small. [Ross Jackson](/pundits/ross-jackson), the most prolific Saints voice on the site, [projected all three](/opinions/b43691e9-1673-4236-ba12-7d60ad3b95f5) of Shough, Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson onto the initial 53 on August 28, calling "the number of quarterbacks behind him... one of the most uncertain pieces to my 53 man roster projection." Joubert kept two: Shough and Wilson.

The forecasting is on the upside. [Derek Brown](/pundits/derek-brown) calls Shough "a wonderful late-round quarterback who could be a QB1 in 2026." Kyle Zeigler has him finishing top-10. Henry McKenna thinks "he can jump into the top 10 in passing stats."

Two grading notes. First, Saints quarterback takes have the worst record of any position group on this roster: 29 graded, 27.3 average accuracy, and a skill delta of +0.78 — essentially no better than the naive baseline. Second, "he's the starter" is the cheapest claim in football. Depth-chart calls about this team grade at 96.2 average accuracy across 11 graded takes, but only +3.61 in skill. Fitzmaurice's own depth-chart record — 91.2 accuracy, **-3.81** skill over 14 graded — is the same story: right, and worth nothing.

## Wide receivers

The most-discussed unit on the roster: 152 takes, 53 of them graded, 52.2 average accuracy.

Chris Olave is the floor. Josh Shepardson argues that if "Shough and the offense take a step forward, Olave could see a few more touchdowns and reach his ceiling of a top-five finish." FantasyPros' staff go further — with rookie Jordyn Tyson's availability in doubt, "Olave becomes the unquestioned focal point of the New Orleans passing game." [Andrew Erickson](/pundits/andrew-erickson) is the calmer read: "a reliable WR1/WR2 option."

Tyson is the split. Erickson [lists him as a rookie to target](/opinions/7d924d0f-d573-45c0-84a7-f4aeeeb9dee4); Evan Tarracciano notes his draft cost "has tumbled all the way down into the 12th round" and says "risk-averse managers are looking elsewhere"; FantasyPros flagged him as a player to avoid. Jackson has him opening the season on injured reserve, and Joubert projects a PUP/IR designation costing the first four games. Behind them, the projections agree: Devaughn Vele, Bryce Lance third, plus Kevin Austin Jr. and Barion Brown.

## Running backs

Travis Etienne is the lead back by contract, not by camp. Nathan Jahnke notes the "four-year, $47 million contract... a clear indication that he will be the starter going forward" and says the deal "should secure top-25 volume." Mike Harmon calls him "the leader in the clubhouse." Erickson lists him among early-round values.

Alvin Kamara divides the room: Erickson has him on his bust list, FantasyPros' consensus has him as a sleeper, and Nic Bodiford notes he "has been operating as the team's primary running back on passing downs." Jahnke and Fitzmaurice both put Kendre Miller in as the Week 1 RB2 ahead of Audric Estimé. No graded record exists yet for any of it; the position's history here is 27 graded takes at 50.1 accuracy.

## Tight ends

Juwan Johnson is, by volume, the single most-recommended Saint in fantasy circles. Steve Krebs: "Juwan Johnson is currently being drafted as the 16th tight end in PPR leagues... we are easily looking at a top-five finish." Mike Fanelli listed him twice at ADPs of TE23 and TE17, arguing "Johnson is now the obvious candidate to fill Tyson's No. 2 receiving role." Fitzmaurice cites Moore's pace. [Walt](/pundits/walt) put a number on it: 72 catches, 850 yards, five touchdowns, 115 fantasy points.

Behind him, Jahnke has Noah Fant as the second tight end in 12 personnel "with Delp serving as Johnson's backup."

Worth knowing before you buy: sleeper calls about the Saints have graded 42.9 average accuracy on seven takes, with a **negative** skill delta (-2.43). Fitzmaurice's league-wide sleeper record is better — 59.2 accuracy, +34.06 skill on 32 graded.

## Offensive line

Nobody is arguing. Jackson: "We know the starting five. That is Kelvin Banks junior at left tackle," David Edwards at left guard, Taliese Fuaga at right tackle, with Dillon Radunz as "the number six offensive lineman... the first man up." PFF's Gordon McGuinness agrees Edwards "should immediately slot in as the starter on the left side" and names Banks the team's breakout candidate, who "could begin to establish himself as one of the league's better young offensive tackles."

The graded history for this unit is thin and mostly not about play: five graded tackle takes (30.7 accuracy) and 11 at guard (49.3), nearly all of them mock-draft picks rather than season judgments.

## Defensive line

Almost nothing checkable has been said about how this group will play. The projections are roster lists — Chase Young, Carl Granderson, Cam Jordan, Tyree Wilson and Fadil Diggs on the edge; Davon Godchaux, Nathan Shepherd, Vernon Broughton, rookie Christen Miller and Khristian Boyd inside. The one real forecast is [Darrion Gray](/pundits/darrion-gray)'s: "Chase Young is obviously the number one going to lead the sacks."

The graded number here is a curiosity, not an indictment: Saints defensive tackle takes average 17.3 accuracy across 12 graded — the worst of any unit — because they are mock picks that went badly wrong. Jackson had Alabama's Tim Keenan going in the 130s in three separate mocks; Keenan went 232nd.

## Secondary

More opinion here than anywhere else on defense. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the No. 1 corner by acclamation — Jackson calls him "the top corner in the room," and [Bucky Brooks](/pundits/bucky-brooks) put him on his all-breakout team, noting "it's his third season." [Rob Rang](/pundits/rob-rang) picked Quincy Riley as the Saints' second-year breakout: "After recording 10 pass breakups over just five starts as a rookie, Riley appears ready to step into the huge vacuum left behind by departed standout Alontae Taylor." PFF's [Bradley Locker](/pundits/bradley-locker) has the same two starting on the boundary.

Jonas Sanker is the projected star/slot defender. Two specific interception calls are on the board: Jackson has Julian Blackmon at "four or five," while [Dylan Sanders](/pundits/dylan-sanders) gives Sanker "four" and the team lead. [Lance Moore](/pundits/lance-moore) named Blackmon the club's breakout player. Safety takes about this team have the best graded accuracy of any Saints unit — 71.7 across 12 — against 35.6 at cornerback.

## Special teams

The kicking job: Joubert, Jackson and John Breech all expect Daniel Carlson to win it, with Jackson keeping Charlie Smyth as an international practice-squad player. On returns, special teams coordinator Phil Galiano said the plan is rookie Barion Brown: "I think our play going (forward) is that Barion (will be the main returner)."

Honest caveat: the site holds **zero** graded takes on Saints kickers, punters or long snappers. All 12 kicker takes on file are pending. There is no track record to weigh here.

## The rookie class

Ground truth from the 2026 draft:

| Round | Pick | Player | Pos | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Jordyn Tyson | WR | Arizona St. |
| 2 | 42 | Christen Miller | DT | Georgia |
| 3 | 73 | Oscar Delp | TE | Georgia |
| 4 | 132 | Jeremiah Wright | G | Auburn |
| 4 | 136 | Bryce Lance | WR | North Dakota St. |
| 5 | 172 | Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | Ohio St. |
| 6 | 190 | Barion Brown | WR | LSU |
| 7 | 219 | TJ Hall | CB | Iowa |

The top of it was the least surprising pick in the first round. The database holds 55 graded mock calls on Tyson; the ones that named New Orleans at No. 8 exactly — Jackson (twice, as early as January 21), [Lance Zierlein](/pundits/lance-zierlein), [Charles Davis](/pundits/charles-davis), [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen), Bucky Brooks, [Field Yates](/pundits/field-yates) and Steve Mensch — all scored 100. Jackson also hit Jeremiah Wright at 132 dead-on in a January 30 mock, for a perfect 100 and +50 skill. His overall mock record is 142 graded calls, 63.2 accuracy, +38.36 skill.

Roles: Jahnke has Delp as Johnson's direct backup; Jackson and Joubert both expect Styles to end up on the practice squad after an injury; Jackson has Wright as "the immediate backup to Cesar Ruiz," adding that "if he does see the field at right guard at any point during the twenty twenty six season, I'm not sure he comes back off of it."

## The overall outlook

This is where the noise is. Every 2026 call below is still pending — [win_total_consensus](/predictions/season-win-total) returns no rows for 2026 yet, because the season hasn't produced a number to grade against.

![2026 Saints win-total calls on file](/posts/visuals/709081a6-c5d5-4af5-a265-e7c59713e347.png)

The range runs from Adam Auslund ("the Saints they're no threat here. They're winning five to seven games") up to Dylan Sanders at 11-6 ("I think this is a pretty easy schedule"). Ross Jackson, Lance Moore and Darrion Gray all landed on 10-7. [John Middlekauff](/pundits/john-middlekauff) picked them in March as his team that "wins like ten games."

The division and playoff calls are heavier. [Colin Cowherd](/pundits/colin-cowherd) has been on this all summer: "the second easiest schedule in football is the Saints... I think they found their guy," with New Orleans winning the NFC South and among "three new playoff teams in the NFC." [Chris Brockman](/pundits/chris-brockman): "I'm buying the Saints to win the South." Simon Hunter called the Saints at +260 to win the division his "biggest bet"; [Chad Millman](/pundits/chad-millman) took them at +200 to make the playoffs. [Richard Sherman](/pundits/richard-sherman) picked them to "sneak up on this division," though on September 1 he had them only 2-2 through four games.

Here is the part the enthusiasm should be discounted by:

- Season win-total calls about the Saints grade 60.0 average accuracy across seven — but **-32.89** in skill. The field beats the coin flip and loses to the baseline.
- Playoff picks on this team: five graded, 40.0 accuracy, -17.8 skill.
- Division-winner calls: three graded, 66.7 accuracy, **-66.67** skill.
- Cowherd's own division-winner record across the league is 53 graded calls at **5.88** accuracy and -3.15 skill. His playoff picks: 68 graded, 33.7 accuracy.

Last year's Saints market was wrong in both directions and nobody got paid for it. Brady Quinn's 3-14 scored 40 accuracy and -90 skill. [Gregg Rosenthal](/pundits/gregg-rosenthal)'s "Saints under five and a half before anyone else does" and [Nick Wright](/pundits/nick-wright)'s over both scored 80 accuracy and -10 skill. Brockman and Eisen, who both said over .500, scored 40 with -49.95. New Orleans went 6-11 — a number close enough to the prior year that almost nothing anyone said beat simply repeating it.

Nobody has published a graded power ranking involving this team, so there is no ordering to check.

The 2026 case is coherent: a settled starter, an easy schedule by several accounts, a division nobody is defending hard. It is also the same case that has produced negative skill scores here for three straight seasons. We'll grade it in January.