# Derek Brown — prediction record Derek Brown — known around FantasyPros as "DBro" — is a senior fantasy football and NFL analyst for the site, where he writes analysis columns like "The Primer" and co-hosts shows including Sweating Sundays. His work centers on the practical decisions fantasy managers face: rankings, start/sit calls, and detailed player breakdowns. He's also appeared on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. The predictions we've tracked cover the full spectrum of fantasy prep — sleepers and busts, positional finishes, draft rankings, and season stat projections — across teams from the Packers to the Panthers to the Dolphins. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 62.71% - **MissedTakes Score:** 35.62 - **Graded articles:** 11 - **Graded individual calls:** 114 - **Clarity:** 100% LIMITED SAMPLE: between 10 and 29 graded articles. Treat with caution. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology ## Graded articles (11) ### Apr 8, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Brown says Ty Simpson is the clear bust of this quarterback/prospect group while defending Fernando Mendoza as a clean evaluation, and he treats Carnell Tate as a long-established top-ten talent who could even go inside the top five. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/983a24cc-3a87-4210-9ed7-afc4408950b2 ### Mar 8, 2026 — scored 71.46 across 13 calls Derek Brown made picks 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27 and 30 in the 2026 mock, and also called Kenyon Sadiq the clear TE1 of the class, Carnell Tate his runaway WR1 and KC Concepcion a top-three receiver. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9dba9158-5785-4cc9-921f-5199045e0104 ### Feb 20, 2026 — scored 68.3 across 10 calls Brown's mock picks: Carnell Tate to Tennessee at 4, David Bailey to Washington at 7, Mansoor Delane to Cincinnati at 10, Jermod McCoy to the Rams at 13, Caleb Banks to the Jets at 16, Jordan Tyson to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to Chicago at 25, Caleb Lomu to Houston at 28 and Akheem Mesidor to New England at 31. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e90d4fd8-737c-41d9-bbb2-6480c05aa283 ### Aug 30, 2025 — scored 58.08 across 21 calls Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 ### Aug 23, 2025 — scored 50.74 across 9 calls Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9d95277c-e110-411f-8934-9a1282c3286e ### Aug 10, 2025 — scored 42.88 across 24 calls Derek Brown laid out a round-by-round target list, projecting Ashton Jeanty as a top-three back and Raiders bellcow, Drake London as a possible overall WR1, and Tetairoa McMillan (his must-have player) as a ten-plus touchdown scorer, with late-round upside picks like Dak Prescott and JJ McCarthy at quarterback. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/fb4dac48-8a62-4706-b0a6-9e6e1af0a3c4 ### Aug 9, 2025 — scored 100 across 4 calls Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as his ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9cc5c06e-e0c5-45bd-8b93-fa089f8673a8 ### Jul 26, 2025 — scored 52.08 across 8 calls Brown is even higher on Tetairoa McMillan (WR17) and calls him Carolina's alpha WR1, pitches Tony Pollard as a value with top-15 RB upside and the clear lead back in Tennessee, and says George Pickens is badly underpriced and will finish as a WR2. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/4037fe99-a4eb-41e2-a90d-c4b07158dd44 ### Jun 29, 2025 — scored 20 across 5 calls Brown names Ricky Pearsall a second-year wide receiver breakout he wants everywhere, prefers him to Stefon Diggs, calls Kaleb Johnson a top-24 running back who can win leagues, and says JJ McCarthy will be a QB1 in 2025. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e7b414f5-0aba-48e0-afd9-1da70ed5dd9d ### Jun 14, 2025 — scored 60 across 5 calls Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b687bc93-42df-4a03-aaf2-449f5099591f ### May 31, 2025 — scored 55.95 across 14 calls Brown is out on Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift while targeting R.J. Harvey, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Jarquez Hunter, Rishard Smith, MarShawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams as guys who beat their current cost. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/6eb326e0-2082-4ae8-ac76-20d3f25b0b78 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown