# John Middlekauff — prediction record John Middlekauff is a former NFL scout and former contributor to The Athletic Bay Area who now appears regularly on The Colin Cowherd Podcast and The Herd with Colin Cowherd. His predictions span the NFL calendar — draft positioning, win totals, playoff berths, Super Bowl picks — with particular attention to teams like the 49ers, Chiefs, and Bears. He digs into roster construction and coaching decisions, whether it's evaluating quarterback prospects like Jaxson Dart and Ty Simpson or debating whether the Steelers are headed for disaster. The scouting background shows in how he frames things: fit, scheme, and where a player lands on the depth chart. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 61.29% - **MissedTakes Score:** 8.88 - **Graded articles:** 31 - **Graded individual calls:** 102 - **Clarity:** 95.84% This is an established record: 30 or more graded articles. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology ## Graded articles (31) ### Sep 10, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Previewing the NFL's Australia game in Week 1, Middlekauff picks the underdog 49ers to beat the Rams, arguing San Francisco's long acclimation trip and Kyle Shanahan's edge over Sean McVay make them a live dog. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/581128af-a57f-4ec8-b904-e3f1e7c65e67 ### Sep 9, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Middlekauff previews the NFL opener, picking Seattle to beat New England at home while expecting the Patriots to land in the 9-10 win range and miss the playoffs, taking Pittsburgh as his third AFC playoff team over Baltimore and New England, standing by Seattle as a Super Bowl participant, ranking the three head coaches involved, and describing Pittsburgh's receivers as a collection of No. 2s. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d2b70076-c664-4ce6-a492-8cf573931a7b ### Sep 8, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Middlekauff also picks Seattle to repeat as Super Bowl champion, likes Denver to win the AFC West and the AFC with a Bengals-Broncos AFC Championship, and picks Seattle to beat New England in Week 1. He also predicts the Falcons will be terrible and doubts Bill Belichick survives at North Carolina. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/410de741-e251-4fca-9bff-c628f5762eea ### Apr 27, 2026 — scored 0 across 1 call Middlekauff hammers the Rams for taking quarterback Ty Simpson 13th overall, arguing Simpson's ceiling is only that of a 10th-to-15th-best NFL quarterback and that the pick can't repay its cost. He also cautions against the 2027 quarterback hype, saying that based on last season's play Dante Moore, not Arch Manning, would be his No. 1 overall pick. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d4ec14f7-aad6-4b6d-bf47-acda46a976b4 ### Apr 23, 2026 — scored 44.63 across 5 calls On his Three and Out podcast, Middlekauff gave ten bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza first overall as the only first-round quarterback, Ty Simpson falling out of round one, Jeremiah Love sliding out of the top five, Sonny Styles to the Titans at four, Omar Cooper as the second receiver drafted, the Lions trading up for a tackle, and Aaron Rodgers' return being announced around draft week. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/f7ab7dc3-467c-4874-93d7-f3955928186d ### Mar 9, 2026 — scored 95.76 across 1 call Middlecoff predicted the Titans would take Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love at No. 4, expected Denver to win 11-12 games again, and named the Saints as his surprise team that wins about ten games. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/8dcb79ef-7d11-43dc-963b-78c212a5b23b ### Mar 2, 2026 — scored 94.57 across 5 calls After the NFL Combine, Middlekauff predicted Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall, that Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love won't fall out of the top 10 (as high as No. 4 to the Giants, no further than the Saints at No. 8), plus top-10/top-20 landing spots for Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate and Oregon's tight end. He also forecast quarterback movement: Tua and Kyler Murray being cut, Kyler as a backup, someone trading for Tyson Bagent, and the Saints becoming a sleeper playoff team if they land Love. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/11086b64-33db-400c-a07d-b51cd232d91d ### Feb 26, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call The former NFL scout expects a wave of veteran movement: Kansas City parting with Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie as trade candidates, Kyler Murray being cut by Arizona, and Chicago moving DJ Moore. He also calls Fernando Mendoza a lock to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/46fd8071-fbe0-4f49-bed5-e38c8caf9522 ### Feb 3, 2026 — scored 58.33 across 1 call Middlekauff says Sam Darnold is easily a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and that Fernando Mendoza is a perfect fit for Clint Kubiak's Raiders offense. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c96513ff-7b39-4129-a2f4-a096bc67353b ### Jan 5, 2026 — scored 66.67 across 3 calls Middlekauff leaned Jacksonville over Buffalo, expected the Rams to beat Carolina, picked Miami over Ole Miss and Indiana over Oregon, and said Fernando Mendoza is a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick who the Raiders will draft first. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3c446d96-9b6c-4e22-a48e-1871c889b9a1 ### Sep 10, 2025 — scored 0 across 5 calls Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a ### Sep 6, 2025 — scored 100 across 2 calls Middlekauff likes Seattle as the best long shot to win the NFC West and expects the 49ers to be solid, while picking Minnesota over Chicago in a low-scoring Week 1 game he estimates around 17-14. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/609185bd-6ee8-40f6-85e1-de55fce35f6a ### Aug 25, 2025 — scored 20 across 4 calls Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/af06c2e6-9beb-4a7e-b444-620680dbccd1 ### Aug 20, 2025 — scored 20 across 8 calls Middlecoff says Anthony Richardson's Colts career is finished and expects him to be traded within ten days for any value, even a fifth-round pick. He backs the Texans to win the AFC South, calls the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs playoff locks with Baltimore and Buffalo winning their divisions, and expects Buffalo to win 14-plus games. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/bc7c7ec4-0fb3-4de8-9016-7b35d7059b4c ### Aug 1, 2025 — scored 80 across 1 call Middlekauff says the Lions have established themselves and will again be a double-digit win team, whatever happens in the playoffs. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e6d073a1-0324-470b-969a-56d550258661 ### Jul 31, 2025 — scored 41.46 across 8 calls In a long mailbag, Middlekauff picked the 49ers to win the NFC West, said he'd lean toward Matt Stafford starting Week 1 despite real concern about the elbow, stuck with Daniel Jones as the Colts' starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, expected Omarion Hampton to start and put up big rookie numbers with Offensive Rookie of the Year on the table, and thought Denver could win 11-12 games. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/007cf411-d3ac-4cbf-ba68-c4fe95b929e7 ### Jul 27, 2025 — scored 40 across 5 calls On his podcast, John previewed several 2025 storylines: he expects the Cowboys to be roughly an eight-to-nine win team, gives the NFC South to Tampa Bay, picks Green Bay to win its division and make the playoffs, thinks Kyler Murray will be elsewhere by 2026, and says Daniel Jones will start Week 1 in Indianapolis. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/015a0804-74b8-4348-a26d-3e4d4d75e8a7 ### Jul 15, 2025 — scored 43.61 across 9 calls In a mid-July podcast, Middlecoff reacted to the Garrett Wilson extension and Jauan Jennings' contract unhappiness, predicting Jennings is San Francisco's clear No. 1 receiver and will top 80 catches; he also expects the Browns to keep Quinshon Judkins on the roster, ranks Mahomes as the top quarterback, calls Dak a top-12 QB, backs Bo Nix as a top-15 starter, says the Bears should win 10 games but must be ranked behind Denver, and would take Dan Campbell over Nick Sirianni. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/32b8564c-773f-4dcf-94bf-654d342ddcec ### Jun 30, 2025 — scored 20 across 3 calls Middlekauff reiterated his pick of the Packers to win the NFC North, set a nine-win floor for the 49ers while being more bullish on them than consensus, and argued Denver's floor with a dominant defense and Sean Payton is about ten wins. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e067181f-d882-4ab3-b654-6e78d233d435 ### Jun 24, 2025 — scored 68.57 across 7 calls Middlecoff predicts Daniel Jones leads the Colts to the playoffs with nine or ten wins, that Zac Taylor's Bengals will fire him and have a new coach in 2026, and that the Patriots make the playoffs. He also expects Jackson Dart to be inserted as the Giants' starter early and thinks the Giants win only four or five games, while believing Josh Allen will win a Super Bowl. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3fe574d6-484e-4aaf-913e-9274abb359a2 ### Jun 24, 2025 — scored 66.67 across 3 calls Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; he also argues the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/eaacd99d-867e-4bab-9c40-015de85caa35 ### Jun 10, 2025 — scored 60 across 2 calls Middlekauff predicts Daniel Jones will be the Colts' Week 1 starter over Anthony Richardson, expects Seattle to finish over .500 (roughly 10-7 again), and picks Bryson DeChambeau as the golfer with the best chance to beat Scottie Scheffler at the US Open at Oakmont. He also says Kevin Stefanski would quit by the end of the year if forced to start Shedeur Sanders. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/a825ead6-6d7d-41d6-9dd8-50d28c2a3df8 ### Apr 10, 2025 — scored 75 across 1 call Answering a mailbag question about three young cornerbacks, Middlekoff ranked whom he would rather have on his team: Derek Stingley first, Trent McDuffie second, Sauce Gardner third, calling Gardner the least fluid athlete of the trio. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3e7dedae-728f-44d9-94e7-89f41c2bae23 ### Apr 3, 2025 — scored 60 across 5 calls The former NFL scout says Cam Ward goes No. 1 overall to Tennessee, expects Miami to collapse to four or five wins and a top-four pick with Tyreek Hill possibly traded, sees the 49ers beating expectations at nine or ten wins, and likes the Patriots at eight or nine wins and the Chargers to clear their number. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/42f94d36-c2a4-41e0-b184-999e7a7148ca ### Mar 1, 2025 — scored 66.67 across 3 calls Middlekauff predicts Kirk Cousins will be cut within about a week, that Sam Darnold will land a multi-year deal worth roughly $100 million as an immediate starter, that Jaxson Dart will gain momentum as a potential first-round pick, that cam Ward may skip throwing at the combine, and that Derek Stingley will get around $100 million this offseason. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/dd47dc99-3bd9-4627-909a-d59bb6062385 ### Feb 27, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Middlekauff says Deebo Samuel's departure from San Francisco is now effectively official — he will not be a 49er in 2025 — and pegs his trade value at only a fifth- or sixth-round pick, with a real chance the team simply has to cut him. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/58b7ee0a-10d2-4952-8f52-8622f60f3524 ### Feb 24, 2025 — scored 50 across 2 calls Middlekauff predicts Kirk Cousins will be cut within the next week to ten days, and says Jackson Dart will build momentum into becoming a first-round pick. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/50dede97-0292-4828-9dd3-21eefd619fb7 ### Feb 5, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Middlekauff says Cooper Kupp's release by the Rams is inevitable because his $20 million salary makes him untradeable at age 31 after injuries. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/17865ad4-9d31-4529-a832-254bb2bc8661 ### Jan 26, 2025 — scored 50 across 1 call Middlekauff says he cannot envision the Chiefs losing the Super Bowl to the Eagles, effectively picking Kansas City to win a third straight title. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/b701af14-57a3-490e-bf55-4d3ca38689dd ### Jan 20, 2025 — scored 0 across 2 calls Middlekauff calls this the Bills' year — they beat the Chiefs next week and win the Super Bowl — and reorders the league's quarterbacks with Mahomes first, then Josh Allen, Burrow and Lamar Jackson. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/56d5bada-9a08-4996-9a02-4d968dc6ea46 ### Jan 7, 2025 — scored 50 across 9 calls Middlekauff agreed with Chargers over Texans, Ravens over Steelers and Bills over Broncos, named five teams capable of winning the Super Bowl, picked Penn State over Notre Dame and Ohio State over Texas, and tabbed a Notre Dame freshman pass rusher as a future top-10 pick. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3aeabd4b-8944-41bb-9b33-47475bb17e4b --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. 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