# Lance Zierlein — prediction record Lance Zierlein covers the NFL draft and roster analysis for Move the Sticks and The 33rd Team. His work spans draft projections, player movement, and team evaluations, with particular attention to prospects like Mason Taylor, Rueben Bain, and Caleb Downs, alongside coverage of the Houston Texans and teams across the league. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 66.11% - **MissedTakes Score:** 19.36 - **Graded articles:** 16 - **Graded individual calls:** 40 - **Clarity:** 96.36% LIMITED SAMPLE: between 10 and 29 graded articles. Treat with caution. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/methodology ## Graded articles (16) ### Sep 11, 2026 — scored 47.62 across 1 call Lance picked the Texans to beat the Bills in the season opener, settling on a final score of 23-17 after initially saying 23-16. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c2b6cc1d-750a-4e1d-bd7a-658edf325854 ### Sep 10, 2026 — scored 0 across 1 call Lance's Week 1 bold prediction is that the Falcons, despite quarterback uncertainty, will win on the road against the Steelers. He also stands by an earlier call that the Texans will be the No. 1 seed, while worrying about how CJ Stroud handles adversity. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e4e76173-b44d-4a38-bbf8-d2433cfbd256 ### Aug 18, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Zierlein expects Trevor Goosby, Texas' starting left tackle, to be a first-round NFL draft pick, and thinks Quinn Ewers may struggle to stay on the Dolphins' roster beyond this year. He also predicts the Texans' preseason quarterback usage: C.J. Stroud around 10-12 plays, Davis Mills through the first half, and Brett Rypien for the second half. If Tank Dell isn't ready, he thinks Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall could both make the roster. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/684f97b2-1578-404d-9e71-4026eea8db4d ### Apr 24, 2026 — scored 44.07 across 2 calls Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/af66c19e-8c5d-457a-9bb9-a6bd76de59b9 ### Apr 21, 2026 — scored 72.98 across 5 calls Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac ### Apr 20, 2026 — scored 90.17 across 7 calls Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. He also expects the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/11bd76bf-cebd-4802-9805-6c28a3207f17 ### Apr 5, 2026 — scored 56.98 across 6 calls Zuerlein describes his mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. He also expects runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks him out of first-round contention. He calls Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3f8e6478-8ee7-441e-b2d1-d0a10233c34a ### Mar 9, 2026 — scored 30.99 across 4 calls Zierlein says the Texans should target a guard at pick 28 (likely after trading back), naming the Texas A&M guard and Oregon guard as targets, says the Penn State guard will be gone by then, and that Spencer Fano won't be available at 28 but shouldn't be drafted as a tackle inside the top 10. He also says Caleb Lomu will be drafted before 28 and that in his most recent mock he gave the Texans Lomu, and did not have Ty Simpson in the first round. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/d0ef4a5e-33c9-41a0-8e2a-b566698a6fc0 ### Mar 1, 2026 — scored 95.76 across 1 call As relayed by the host, Zierlein's mock draft had safety Caleb Downs going to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/27613278-7024-402d-b431-8fadf60bab23 ### Feb 6, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Lance leans to Seattle winning the Super Bowl, and by a large margin, saying he feels fairly strong about that side even though the public backing isn't with him. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/9cd68038-fb84-4fb8-a46a-9034964b79c1 ### Jan 16, 2026 — scored 88.1 across 1 call Lance picked the Patriots to beat the Texans 20-13, saying he could not see where Houston's offensive production would come from against New England's big, physical corners. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/e16e73e2-89e3-46f8-a10b-f9f9b7b8a1f8 ### Jul 17, 2025 — scored 47.22 across 3 calls Filling in for Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Z said Derek Stingley has passed Sauce Gardner and is now the second-best cornerback in the league behind Patrick Surtain; he expects Dak Prescott to return to the executives' top-10 quarterback list next year, doubts Caleb Williams cracks the top 10 but sees a big bounce-back for him and the Bears, and thinks Washington gets an extension done with Terry McLaurin. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/1c26b6a1-52d1-47d2-b81d-25475d2de133 ### Mar 2, 2025 — scored 58.33 across 1 call Lance says he does not see Riley Leonard as a starter, expects Jayden Higgins to be a second-round receiver, and believes Dominic Lovett can become a starting slot receiver. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/c077a234-5da4-4f39-91b7-43739754dda8 ### Mar 1, 2025 — scored 68.96 across 3 calls Zierlein said Kansas State's Jacob Parrish helped himself with his testing and will be a second-round cornerback, put South Carolina safety Nick Emnori inside the top 16 after his workout, pegged Mason Taylor as the third tight end off the board and possibly a first-rounder, and called Alabama's Robbie Oots a future NFL fullback who will be on a roster. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/aa21a554-c136-4d91-a197-f267f3f2cd57 ### Feb 28, 2025 — scored 25.41 across 2 calls Zierlein raised his draft evaluations after Thursday's workouts: Oklahoma linebacker Danny Stutsman moved into his top 100, South Carolina's Demetrius Knight could be the first inside linebacker drafted, and Caine Medrano went from undrafted to draftable on his board. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/666b39d1-938a-496f-a857-b0e4ba69ca23 ### Jan 10, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Filling in for Daniel Jeremiah, Lance said Jayden Daniels will win Offensive Rookie of the Year over Brock Bowers. https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/opinions/3ee1f2de-3671-4ce4-85f7-dc77a40d7a5f --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.thegoodapps.co/corrections?pundit=lance-zierlein