The Draft Network · Jul 29, 2021
An unsigned bold-predictions piece forecasting that the 2022 draft will see more first-round running backs than quarterbacks (specifically three backs to two passers), that Carson Strong will be drafted ahead of Malik Willis, that Kayvon Thibodeaux will not be the first defensive lineman off the board, that eight defensive players will be picked in the top 10, and that Spencer Rattler will emerge as the top overall prospect in the class.
“Just as there were eight total offensive players selected in the top 10 last year, there will be eight total defensive players selected in the top 10 this year.”
published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived Apr 7, 2023) → · live page
5 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer RattlerJul 29, 2021
“Give the top 10 Spencer Rattler and one of the top tackles, and pepper the rest with these studly defenders.”
Scored 0.06a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Spencer Rattler
- season:
- 2021
- zero at:
- 32
- outcome:
- did not enter the 2022 draft; went 150 overall in 2024, so the pick keeps 0.25 of its closeness
- accuracy:
- 0.06
- baseline:
- 50
- called for:
- 2022
- actual pick:
- 150
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.23
- predicted pick:
- top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Prospect vs Prospect CallsCarson StrongJul 29, 2021
“If they both came out right now, Strong should and would be the higher drafted player given his current profile as a passer; barring major strides from Willis in just one offseason, Strong will likely always have that advantage on him.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- claim:
- Carson Strong drafted ahead of Malik Willis
- draft:
- 2022
- skill:
- -50
- what happened:
- Carson Strong went undrafted, Malik Willis went 86
- player:
- Carson Strong
- season:
- 2021
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- compared to:
- Malik Willis
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer RattlerJul 29, 2021
“But when Rattler ascends to the clear top spot in this draft class overall—something I expect will happen”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Mock Draft PicksBreece HallJul 29, 2021
“Among the backs, I think Eric Gray, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams all have a chance to play themselves into the first-round conversation.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Mock Draft PicksIsaiah SpillerJul 29, 2021
“Among the backs, I think Eric Gray, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams all have a chance to play themselves into the first-round conversation.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.