NFL prediction accuracy, by type
We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. A prediction earns a place here by being specific enough that reality can settle it — the methodology sets out how each kind is scored.
- Kinds of prediction
- 34
- Takes logged
- 27,407
- Graded
- 10,067
- Average accuracy
- 59.9
31 with results
checked against reality
out of 100
How each kind scores
Average accuracy across every graded call of that kind, out of 100. Bar length is the score; the count beside it is how much evidence sits behind it.
- Mock Draft Picks64.4 · 2995 graded
- Game Outcome Picks58.2 · 1769 graded
- Roster Spot Calls87.1 · 1241 graded
- Depth Chart Calls88.8 · 537 graded
- Playoff Picks59.5 · 504 graded
- Trade and Signing Calls52.0 · 398 graded
- Division Winners27.4 · 366 graded
- Award Picks21.2 · 355 graded
- Sleeper Calls52.6 · 331 graded
- Season Win Totals49.2 · 292 graded
- Positional Finishes34.4 · 291 graded
- Score Predictions59.2 · 274 graded
- Conference Champions25.1 · 194 graded
- Position Order Calls76.9 · 182 graded
- Power Rankings66.1 · 160 graded
- Player Season Numbers35.8 · 156 graded
- Super Bowl Picks34.3 · 139 graded
- Top Player Lists54.7 · 107 graded
- Fantasy Bust Calls58.3 · 84 graded
- Coach Award Picks16.7 · 67 graded
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls0.0 · 65 graded
- Fantasy Rankings66.1 · 58 graded
- Seeding, Byes and Home Field39.2 · 56 graded
- Team Draft Slot Calls78.2 · 47 graded
- Combine Measurements68.8 · 41 graded
- Prospect vs Prospect Calls78.6 · 16 graded
- Position Group Rankings50.9 · 15 graded
- Head Coach Rankings41.7 · 7 graded
- Combine Superlatives100.0 · 4 graded
- Fantasy Defense Calls52.8 · 3 graded
- Draft Bust Calls50.0 · 2 graded
Logged, not yet settled
These have claims recorded against them and nothing to check them against yet. They fill in as the season resolves.
- Surprise Team Calls253 waiting
- Availability Calls20 waiting
- Fantasy Defense Rankings1 waiting
The punditry calendar
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When each kind of take actually gets made, every season pooled — the industry has seasons of its own. A July win-total call and a December one sound alike and are graded very differently, which is the point of the difficulty weighting.
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth Chart Calls | 17 | 79 | 161 | 175 | 124 | 142 | 211 | 2742 | 878 | 23 | 11 | 14 |
| Mock Draft Picks | 187 | 537 | 811 | 1805 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 314 | 285 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Sleeper Calls | 26 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 100 | 69 | 176 | 1712 | 613 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Roster Spot Calls | 4 | 18 | 19 | 81 | 92 | 38 | 160 | 1945 | 51 | 1 | 1 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 457 | 17 | 8 | 33 | 209 | 42 | 61 | 138 | 789 | 130 | 147 | 159 |
| Positional Finishes | 18 | 21 | 50 | 21 | 35 | 66 | 128 | 494 | 297 | 49 | 12 | 42 |