What we grade
We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. A prediction earns a place here by being specific enough that reality can settle it — the methodology sets out how each kind is scored.
- Kinds of prediction
- 22
- Takes logged
- 1,369
- Graded
- 405
- Average accuracy
- 52.3
11 with results
checked against reality
out of 100
How each kind scores
Average accuracy across every graded call of that kind, out of 100. Bar length is the score; the count beside it is how much evidence sits behind it.
- Mock Draft Picks52.5 · 386 graded
- Depth Chart Calls— · 92 graded
- Player Season Numbers50.3 · 42 graded
- Season Win Totals— · 38 graded
- Playoff Picks— · 34 graded
- Top Player Lists28.2 · 21 graded
- Positional Finishes— · 9 graded
- Power Rankings— · 9 graded
- Fantasy Rankings63.2 · 8 graded
- Game Outcome Picks— · 2 graded
- Super Bowl Picks— · 2 graded
Logged, not yet settled
These have claims recorded against them and nothing to check them against yet. They fill in as the season resolves.
- Sleeper Calls58 waiting
- Roster Spot Calls6 waiting
- Trade and Signing Calls6 waiting
- Surprise Team Calls2 waiting
- Award Picks1 waiting
- Division Winners1 waiting
- Fantasy Defense Calls1 waiting
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls1 waiting
Defined, nothing logged yet
The grader understands these and is waiting for a pundit to make one.