Leaderboard
Ranked by MissedTakes Score — how much better than a naive guess, not how often right. Someone who only ever picks the favorite lands near zero however high their accuracy climbs, which is the whole point of measuring it this way. The methodology explains the arithmetic. There is a ranking of publishers too, for when the byline is a masthead rather than a person.
Anyone with fewer than ten graded articles is left out of the numbered ranking. Thirty picks in one mock draft is one article, not thirty opinions, and counting it as thirty would be the quickest way to look established without having been tested.
- Pundits tracked
- 8
- Ranked
- 0
- Building a record
- 8
- Graded takes
- 405
ten graded articles or more
behind these numbers
Nobody qualifies for the ranking yet
A prediction is graded once the season it describes has finished, so the ranking fills up as results land rather than as opinions are collected. Everything below is real and measured — it is just too thin to rank.
8 pundits have a graded record. The bar is ten graded articles.
Against the baseline
Everyone with a score, ranked or not. Zero means no better than a naive guess on the same claims — a pundit can be accurate and still land below it, if the calls were easy.
- Ben Elsner1 article · 1 graded+117.0
- Rich Hribar1 article · 44 graded+31.2
- Keith Sanchez1 article · 31 graded+14.7
- Kyle Crabbs4 articles · 241 graded-3.6
- Jaime Eisner7 articles · 87 graded-31.4
- Tyler Brooke1 article · 1 graded-100.0
Building a record
Ordered by how much evidence there is, not by score — these samples are too thin to rank, and sorting them by result would be a ranking with a disclaimer on it.
- Jaime Eisnerprovisional7 of 10 articles · 87 graded · 57.94 accuracy
- Kyle Crabbsprovisional4 of 10 articles · 241 graded · 55.9 accuracy
- Rich Hribarprovisional1 of 10 articles · 44 graded · 56.79 accuracy
- Keith Sanchezprovisional1 of 10 articles · 31 graded · 64.12 accuracy
- Ben Elsnerprovisional1 of 10 articles · 1 graded · 100 accuracy
- Tyler Brookeprovisional1 of 10 articles · 1 graded · 0 accuracy
- Nathan Jahnkeprovisional1 of 10 articles · 1 graded · 100 accuracy
- James Fosterprovisional1 of 10 articles · 1 graded · 43.91 accuracy
Accuracy across everyone
Where the individual graded calls fall, out of 100.
Takes in each band
Where the evidence is
Graded calls by kind of prediction. A record built entirely on one kind says less about a pundit than the same number spread across several.
- Player Season Numbers40 graded
- Mock Draft Picks359 graded
- Fantasy Rankings4 graded
- Top Player Lists2 graded