Chris Brockman · Sep 8, 2025
Brockman opened with a series of week-one overreactions: Josh Allen repeats as MVP with Buffalo as the AFC's No. 1 seed, Bills-Ravens is both the game of the year and an AFC title game preview, Aaron Rodgers mirrors his 2021 MVP season with 40 TDs, the NFC Championship is played at Lambeau, the Colts are AFC South front runners, Cincinnati's slow start dooms them, Christian McCaffrey has a top-five MVP season, and the Chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West.
“Josh Allen is QB one. He's gonna repeat as MVP, and the Bills are the one seed in the AFC.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
13 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Josh Allen to win MVP
“Josh Allen is QB one. He's gonna repeat as MVP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Aaron Rodgers to record 40 passing tds
“It does seem like Aaron Rodgers has hit the fountain of youth, Rich. He's gonna mirror that 2021 MVP season. 4035 Tutty's incoming.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 73.52-107.03 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 20.82
- skill:
- -107.03
- what happened:
- 24
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 73.52
- predicted:
- 40
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Christian McCaffrey to win MVP
“CMC is back plus all the injuries means the top five MVP season is coming”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersSep 8, 2025
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
“The NFC championship game is gonna be played at Lambeau Field.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Green Bay Packers to take the top seed
“The NFC championship game is gonna be played at Lambeau Field.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Division WinnersIndianapolis ColtsSep 8, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to win the division
“and now the Colts are the AFC South front runners. Danny Dimes.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Rashawn Slater to be 1st on the depth chart
“It seems like, next year, Vershawn Slater is gonna be playing right tackle.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 8, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Cowboys look better. How can you say that? Jackson Jackson Dart's gonna beat him this week.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Division WinnersLos Angeles ChargersSep 8, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
“The chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“and the Bills are the one seed in the AFC”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Positional FinishesJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Josh Allen is QB one.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Conference ChampionsBuffalo BillsSep 8, 2025
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
“Bills Ravens is already the game of the year. Lock it up right now... and that was the AFC championship game preview.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensSep 8, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“that was the AFC championship game preview”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.