Chris Brockman · Jun 23, 2025

Brockman argued the Chiefs dynasty is finished, predicted the Giants and Jets would win about five games apiece while Dallas could reach 12 wins, tabbed Jacksonville as an AFC South winner, said Washington falls back to 9-8, picked Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, called the 49ers a slept-on championship-weekend team, projected big numbers for Bo Nix and a Denver division title, forecast a 2,000-yard receiver, hyped the Penix-London duo, and said Baltimore is the AFC North's only playoff team.

“Last year's Super Bowl blowout loss marked the end of the Chiefs dynasty.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

18 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Season Win Totals New York JetsJun 23, 2025
New York Jets to finish with 5 wins
“But you're saying that the Giants and the Jets are both gonna have five wins apiece? Yeah. Five, six at most.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 25+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
naive:
6.75
skill:
70
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
25
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks San Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“San Francisco will be playing on championship weekend this year. Wow. Forty niners final four.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New York GiantsJun 23, 2025
New York Giants to finish with 5 wins
“But you're saying that the Giants and the Jets are both gonna have five wins apiece? Yeah. Five, six at most.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
naive:
5.75
skill:
30
what happened:
4
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
65
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Baltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“One playoff team That's wild. On the AFC North Who is it? It's the Baltimore Ravens.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Washington CommandersJun 23, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 9 wins
“I think they're gonna come back down to earth a little bit, maybe go nine and eight, ultimately miss the playoffs.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
10.25
skill:
40
what happened:
5
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Bo Nix Denver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to record 4,500 passing yards
“Bo Nicks 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns.”
Close · 75Scored 74.71a naive guess scored 38.05+73.32 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2713.37
skill:
73.32
what happened:
3931
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2025
accuracy:
74.71
baseline:
38.05
predicted:
4500
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3775
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Bo Nix Denver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to win MVP finalist
“Bo Nicks is gonna be an MVP finalist this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Rome Odunze Chicago BearsJun 23, 2025
Rome Odunze to be 1st on the depth chart
“Romadunze really has a chance to be the number one wide receiver in Chicago.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
-33.33
player:
Rome Odunze
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Bo Nix Denver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to record 35 passing tds
“Bo Nicks 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns.”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 70.58-55.44 skill
How this was scored
naive:
21.32
skill:
-55.44
what happened:
25
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2025
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
70.58
predicted:
35
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
29
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals San Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 12 wins
“So they they went six and eleven last year. They could put twelve and five pretty easily.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 5+190 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
7.25
skill:
190
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
5
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Coach Award PicksJun 23, 2025
Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year
“Mike Vrabel's gonna win coach of the year. The Pats are back, people.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Mike Vrabel
naive:
the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
skill:
200
season:
2025
winner:
Mike Vrabel
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Dallas CowboysJun 23, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 12 wins
“Dallas could be a twelve and five team.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
naive:
7.75
skill:
-170
what happened:
7
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Baltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“It's only Baltimore in the AFC North.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Jacksonville JaguarsJun 23, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“I think I think they might make Jaguars... I think they might win the division.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team Calls San Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to beat expectations
“heading into 2025, the forty niners are being slept on, underrated, and San Francisco will be playing on championship weekend this year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Denver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Denver Broncos to win the division
“Sean Payton year two. Got some weapons in the draft. Broncos win the West.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Drake London Atlanta FalconsJun 23, 2025
Drake London to outplay his draft cost
“You should be getting Drake London in your fantasy drafts if you can.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Michael Penix Jr.Atlanta FalconsJun 23, 2025
Michael Penix Jr. to outplay his draft cost
“Take Michael Penic's late. That duo is gonna take you to the playoffs.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?