Claybon projects Bijan Robinson as the week's top running back and A.J. Brown as a candidate for top wide receiver, and gives weekly fantasy point projections of about 26 for Drake Maye, 19 for Trevor Lawrence and just over 10 for Brock Bowers.

5 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Player Season NumbersBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersDec 16, 2025

  Brock Bowers to record 10 fantasy points

  “You get just north to ten points.”

  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 66.05-77.28 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  93.15

  skill:

  -77.28

  what happened:

  112.2

  player:

  Brock Bowers

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  66.05

  predicted:

  10

  statistic:

  fantasy_points

  difficulty:

  1.17

  last season:

  150.7

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  3

  position average:

  35.61

  zero at percent out:

  50

  Think this is wrong?

• Player Season NumbersTrevor LawrenceJacksonville JaguarsDec 16, 2025

  Trevor Lawrence to record 19 fantasy points

  “I am forecasting a relatively nice, surprisingly nice nineteen points for Trevor Lawrence”

  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  134.15

  skill:

  0

  what happened:

  338.18

  player:

  Trevor Lawrence

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  0

  predicted:

  19

  statistic:

  fantasy_points

  difficulty:

  1.17

  last season:

  145.2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  3

  position average:

  123.09

  zero at percent out:

  50

  Think this is wrong?

• Player Season NumbersDrake MayeNew England PatriotsDec 16, 2025

  Drake Maye to record 26 fantasy points

  “I have a projection of twenty six point full fantasy points ... I think it's a bounce back game for New England and a solid fantasy performance for Drake May.”

  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  150.12

  skill:

  0

  what happened:

  350.96

  player:

  Drake Maye

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  0

  predicted:

  26

  statistic:

  fantasy_points

  difficulty:

  1.17

  last season:

  177.14

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  3

  position average:

  123.09

  zero at percent out:

  50

  Think this is wrong?

• Positional FinishesA.J. BrownPhiladelphia EaglesDec 16, 2025

  A.J. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points

  “So I think AJ has a chance to be the wide receiver one.”

  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 83.33-97.5 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  -97.5

  player:

  A.J. Brown

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  12

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  83.33

  position:

  WR

  ranked by:

  fantasy points

  difficulty:

  1.17

  naive basis:

  where he finished last season

  weeks in the season:

  18

  naive finish:

  17

  actual finish:

  15

  weeks left when called:

  3

  predicted finish:

  1

  Think this is wrong?

• Positional FinishesBijan RobinsonDec 16, 2025

  Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points

  “You're obviously gonna start Jon Robinson, but I think he will be the RB one.”

  Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-9.75 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  -9.75

  player:

  Bijan Robinson

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  12

  accuracy:

  83.33

  baseline:

  91.67

  position:

  RB

  ranked by:

  fantasy points

  difficulty:

  1.17

  naive basis:

  where he finished last season

  weeks in the season:

  18

  naive finish:

  4

  actual finish:

  3

  weeks left when called:

  3

  predicted finish:

  1

  Think this is wrong?