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Carl Dumler Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Leaderboard / Carl Dumler

Carl Dumler

Writes at Sports Illustrated

Every take from Carl Dumler, including the ones still waiting →

Is Carl Dumler accurate? Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Carl Dumler scores 90.48% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 16.24, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

90.48%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

16.24

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 1 article.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 1

Dumler sees the Broncos bouncing back behind the run game and the home crowd, winning on a late field goal.Sep 18, 2026
- Denver Broncos 24 — Jaguars 21
  “Pick : Broncos 24, Jaguars 21”
  Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 82.1+16.24 skill
  How this was scored
  score:
  13-20
  skill:
  16.24
  they picked:
  DEN
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  90.48
  baseline:
  82.1
  difficulty:
  1.94
  weeks in the season:
  18
  actual margin:
  7
  weeks left when called:
  17
  naive home margin:

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong — a misattributed quote, a claim we misread, a grade you disagree with — tell us and we will look at it.

-0.52

predicted margin:

Think this grade is wrong?